Training Camp Questions: Why Kristaps Porziņģis’ Injury Could Hurt Celtics More Now

When the Celtics famously began the 2008-09 season 27-2, building on their 2008 title run and showing they could’ve been better the following year before the Kevin Garnett injury, they benefited from continuity. Their starting lineup returned in full having been tested and with a full summer ahead together after 2007’s turnover.

Boston returns 13 players from its championship squad this season, but Kristaps Porziņģis‘ Finals injury will cost him 5-6 months — a front-loaded version of the Garnett injury. That Celtics team had lost front court depth in James Posey and PJ Brown, while this one improbably retained Luke Kornet, Xavier Tillman Sr. and Neemias Queta on minimum contracts. Al Horford returns as a capable starter at 37. Those four players and Oshae Brissett allowed them to stagger rest and finish 31-6 through the playoffs when Porziņģis sat. It won’t be easy to replicate that success in 2024-25.

Horford played 30.3 minutes per game during the regular season with Porziņģis out, averaging 11.6 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.1 blocks per game, all above his season-long averages playing 26.8 MPG. He shot 51.6% from the field and 45.6% from three in those games, then ramped up to 31.7 MPG in the playoffs when Porziņģis fell with a calf sprain. Horford’s stats diminished slightly there to 9.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.3 APG and 1.1 BPG on 45.4% shooting (35.2% 3PT) across 12 games. The Celtics know that can’t be the answer to sustaining through the opening stretch.

“Al is 37-38 years old and we leaned on him so much,” Jaylen Brown said after the Finals. “Probably too much for his age and where he’s at and he just delivered, so consistent, so disciplined with his body, never complains. The only thing he does is add to winning.”

Last regular season allowed Boston to plan management for Horford and Porziņģis, they would rest on either half of back-to-backs, while Porziņģis’ surprise absences were limited to a four-game stretch between November and December, then five games in March. That reduced the amount of added exertion on Horford that Porziņģis’ missed games caused before the playoffs — when Horford’s minutes would balloon regardless.

Now, the Celtics will need to manage at least 18 straight regular season games without Porziņģis — including three back-to-backs where Horford will inevitably sit — or as many as 29 plus the NBA Cup and two more back-to-backs if it stretches on to the six month mark. Brad Stevens has emphasized that it’s going to be a while before Porziņģis returns from his procedure, which addressed a rare torn retinaculum and dislocated posterior tibialis tendon. There aren’t long-term concerns once he heals, but the Celtics aren’t going to rush that process.

Kornet is expected to become Horford’s primary backup during that time, having averaged 8.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.7 APG and 1.4 BPG on 70.6% shooting in 21 appearances with Porziņģis out. The Celtics won Kornet’s minutes by an average of 4.1 points in those games, and his improvement defensively and on the boards made him a stronger matchup against a greater variety of opponents.

After sitting the first two games of the postseason, Kornet averaged 4.0 PPG and 4.1 RPG in 12.5 MPG in Games 3-5 against Miami and the five games against Cleveland, including grabbing six offensive rebounds and blocking two shots in Game 1 against the Cavs. He also scored 20 points in a spot start win against Toronto with Horford and Porziņģis out, then posted 12 points, nine rebounds and six assists in the same situation at Utah in March. The would improve to 4-0 in those spots.

There are games that don’t suit Kornet, he missed 19 games for injury and matchup reasons, and Tillman’s return on a two-year contract could counteract that. Joe Mazzulla went away from Kornet midway through the Indiana series and received strong minutes from the team’s deadline addition during the Game 3 comeback win. It helped having Brissett to allow for smaller lineups and Horford shooting an obscene 7-for-12 from three.

Tillman’s corner three became a defining moment of the Finals and he held up well next to Horford when the Celtics went to switching looks on defense. He struggled to find a consistent role in the offense and dealt with nagging knee pain to begin his stint with the team, along with the expected difficulty of a mid-season trade with a personal tragedy that followed. Tillman finished with 4.0 PPG, 2.7 RPG and 0.5 BPG while shooting 68.4% on twos and 28.6% from three in 20 games. A full offseason provides hope for more consistent results.

The same goes for Queta, who played only sparingly in Boston after the Kings waived him late last offseason. Given that he didn’t acclimate with Maine early in the year and dealt with a stress fracture after camp, his bursts of playing time showed serious potential ahead of his 25-year-old season. Queta averaged 7.2 PPG and 7.2 RPG (53.6% FG) in 19.4 MPG across appearances between Dec. 15-23, then posted 6.2 PPG, 4.6 RPG and 1.2 BPG in five straight appearances between January and February while shooting 75% (11.8 MPG).

Fouling (5.4 per 36 last year) and defense remain hurdles that’ll keep Queta from consistent playing time until he can reign in both. There’ll be nights where the team’s health forces him to play 15-20 minutes, though, and assistant coach DJ MacLeay teased defensive adjustments at Summer League the team could utilize to put him in position to succeed. 

The team might miss Brissett more than fans might expect. Mazzulla rarely went to it, but Brissett’s presence gave the Celtics a path to playing small given his and Tatum’s rebounding skills. While his shooting didn’t pan out as hoped (27.3% 3PT), he made up for it by posting a 10.9 offensive rebounding percentage, which would’ve tied Jonas Valančiūnas for the 12th-highest figure in the league if Brissett qualified. His minutes finished seventh on the team in defensive rating (106.4). His last-ranked offensive rating among the team’s standard contract players, along with his desire to play more, prevented his return.

Horford-Porziņģis (+13.0) set the standard for front court duos on the team last year. Horford-Kornet (+5.6), Tillman-Kornet (+24.9), Horford-Tillman (+11.0) and Queta-Horford (+23.3) all showed enough promise to think the Celtics can get by without Porziņģis. With Porziņģis’ return date unclear and Brissett gone, the team could be one injury from needing Jaden Springer, Baylor Scheierman or Queta to step up consistently.

“The challenge is greater,” Stevens said in the summer. “The challenge, because the target, human nature, all those things are real, but we also have to say, sometimes you need a jolt from within … we have the opportunity to tweak our team all the way up until February … we would be crazy not to say the character and the foundation of this team is right. Let’s see if we can be as consistent as we can, grow, develop, get better, improve, try some new things on both ends of the floor to add some juice and jolt that way. Then, see if we can pick up where we left off.”