Scouting Report: Keys to the Patriots Reaching 2-0 vs the Seahawks

Despite stunning the world in an upset over the Bengals, the Patriots will be underdogs this weekend in their home opener against the Seahawks.

The matchup features the NFL’s youngest head coaches, Jerod Mayo (37) and Mike Macdonald (36). They each achieved 1-0 playing throwback football, dominating defensively and on the ground. Neither team had much success through the air, but this league is about finding ways to win, and both teams accomplished that feat. Still, their offenses must evolve against what looks like two of the league’s best defenses.

In pressers this week, Mayo and Macdonald each acknowledged the overlap between their defensive schemes. Mayo touched on their similarly confounding pressure schemes, while Macdonald mentioned their similar philosophies on playing the run.

“Everyone is a threat,” Mayo said of Macdonald’s pass rush. “When we talk about known rushers, it’s really the unknown rushers that make that Baltimore defense special. You don’t know who’s coming. They drop out defensive ends. They do things that are very similar to some of the things that we do as well, the zone blitzing and protecting the deep part of the field. Historically, they’ve always had a good defense, and they have a bunch of good players.”

“I think our philosophy and New England’s philosophy is pretty similar about trying to build a wall, having knockback, staying square, having edges,” Macdonald explained. “Some people opt for the ‘hey, let’s destroy the line on the way to the QB’ sorta speak and then let the second and third levels clean it up. It’s good. There’s a lotta good run defenses that do that. Our philosophies are on the other end of the spectrum.”

These talented, fundamentally sound defenses will be massive litmus tests for both teams. Seattle’s offense has more firepower, but New England has a shot if it exploits some key matchups.

Here are my three keys for New England getting to 2-0 against the Seahawks.

SUFFOCATE THE RUN GAME

The Patriots’ ground defense dominated an inferior opponent last week. In a near-perfect performance, they held Bengals backs to a combined 55 yards on 12 carries.

In a league that prioritizes rushing the passer, New England employs some of the best run-stoppers in the game. Getting past Davon Godchaux, Anfernee Jennings, Jahlani Tavai, and Ja’Whaun Bentley is never easy. Daniel Ekuale and Jeremiah Pharms are also unsung contributors, while Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers make impact players from every level.

The group will face its first real test in the Seahawks and third-year back Kenneth Walker III, who Mayo had high praise on Wednesday.

“I think Kenneth [Walker III] doesn’t get a lot of hype. … but when you turn on the film, this guy pops off the film,” Mayo said. “He’s a very aggressive runner. He can do it all.”

The springy bowling ball ran roughshod over Denver’s defense, racking up 103 yards on just 20 carries and scoring a 23-yard touchdown.

Credit must also be given to Walker’s offensive line. Walker’s 39.9% rush yards before contact rate was sixth highest among backs with at least 15 rushes. That’s a huge credit to the line, especially left tackle Charles Cross, who had a monster game.

Seattle overmatched the Broncos, but their scheme diversity and execution stood out. That could be tested if Walker (oblique) misses Sunday’s game, but whether it’s him or backup Zach Charbonnet in the backfield, they’ll face a much more formidable challenge this week against New England.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Patriots’ defense had the lowest average tackle distance and missed tackle rate (5.7%, three total) in Week 1. If the Seahawks’ backs manage to breach the line of scrimmage, it’s unlikely they’ll get much further.

If there’s one glaring vulnerability in New England’s defense, it could be Keion White as a defensive end in five-man fronts. White was dynamic rushing the passer last week, but double teams moved him off the ball on the Bengals’ last two runs, including a touchdown. That could be a bad matchup if he’s lined up against Cross and veteran guard Laken Tomlinson.

White is generally stout, even against doubles, but he holds up better as a stand-up outside linebacker. As long as the versatile defender is in advantageous positions, the Patriots should be in good shape on the ground.

New England dominating the trenches is key to helping its back end, which will have its hands full in the passing game.

CONTAIN DK METCALF AND TYLER LOCKETT

The Patriots avoided one dynamic duo with Tee Higgins out last week, but they won’t be so lucky with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett coming to town.

Metcalf is an unholy combination of size, speed, and ball skills. He can bully corners at every phase of the route and dominate at the catch-point. He’s also a tone-setting blocker who brings the fight to corners.

Metcalf was quiet last week against Pat Surtain, who was fresh off a market-resetting extension, but that lack of production wasn’t all on the receiver (more on that later). Mike Macdonald also told reporters he’s “confident” Metcalf will get involved earlier this week.

Lockett fell on the other end of the spectrum, trailing only Chris Godwin (89.1) in receiving grade (88.8). He finished with 77 yards on six catches, but all five went for a first down, including the game-sealing conversion. Lockett lacks Metcalf’s size and brute strength, but he’s a three-level threat with great quickness, route-running savvy, and hands.

Few teams can handle one, let alone two, of these big-play threats. But they don’t have Christian Gonzalez and Jonathan Jones.

Gonzalez picked up where he left off before his season-ending shoulder injury, holding Ja’Marr Chase to 15 yards on two catches. The second-year corner followed Chase on all but three snaps. Those exceptions were in Cover 2 zones, with Gonzalez in a cloud technique and Chase in the slot.

Metcalf’s rare size and strength are a unique challenge, but Gonzalez held up well against another juggernaut in A.J. Brown last season. If he dissuades the Seahawks from targeting him early, Gonzalez will force Geno Smith to play one-handed.

Lockett can pick up the slack, but that’ll be tough against Jonathan Jones. The 30-year-old corner is still playing at a high level and made some impact plays last week.

Lockett and Jones are two of the feistiest players at their respective positions. Both have made careers of playing bigger than their listed size, and they’ll be another fun battle to watch. Lockett (thigh) has been limited in practice, but he’s a tough cookie, and I’d be shocked if he missed time.

Marcus Jones and Jaxon Smith-Njigba could be an interesting matchup. Jones should smother Smith-Njigba with his speed and quickness, but the big slot receiver can win above the rim if given a chance. If Jones struggles, Alex Austin could swap in for man coverage situations.

Each position group will make its share of plays, but as mentioned last week, nothing prevents completions like a good pass rush.

Smith was one of the most pressured quarterbacks in Week 1, with most of that coming from his right. Smith did complete a gutsy throw on his dagger to Lockett and break the pocket for a 34-yard score, but he was affected by the rush throughout.

That’s good news for Keion White and Joshua Uche, who tormented the right side of Cincy’s offensive line.

White ranks 3rd in the NFL in sacks (2.5) behind Greg Rousseau and Alontae Taylor. He also ranked 5th in pass rush grade last week behind Aidan Hutchinson, T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett, and Dexter Lawrence.

Uche didn’t register a sack or hit in Week 1, but his five hurries rank 7th in the NFL.

The Patriots put the league on notice with their dominant showing in Cincinnati. Still, the Seahawks have enough talent to give them a run for their money. If the defense keeps things close, New England’s offense has some winnable matchups to get them over the finish line.

PLAY COMPLIMENTARY OFFENSE

Rhamondre Stevenson had a coming-out party last week, running for 120 yards and a touchdown in the jungle. The ground game was so dominant that Cincy couldn’t stop it despite knowing precisely what was coming.

Winning one-on-one matchups always trumps scheme in the NFL. New England did so convincingly against the Bengals, and there’s a chance they can do it again this week. The Patriots also have made it clear they are a running team. But Jacoby Brissett threw for just one more yard than Stevenson rushed for, which is a hard way to win in the NFL. When asked about potentially being one-dimensional, Mayo reminded reporters that the offense isn’t restricted to one scheme or plan.

“[If teams say ‘they’re not running on us’] then we turn into a pass team,” Mayo said with a laugh. “When I say we’re going to run the ball, if you want to load up the box, then we’ll throw the ball. … It’s one thing to sit there and say, ‘this is the game plan on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.’ I talk about mental agility and being able to really change, instead of being rigid. We can’t be rigid in the way we play. We can’t be rigid in the way that we think. Who knows? This week, Jacoby [Brissett] may throw for 300 yards or Rhamondre [Stevenson] may run for 200 yards. I really don’t know.”

Flexibility will be key against a loaded Seahawks defense that maximizes its talent with a great system.

Leonard Williams wrecked the Broncos’ line last week, tying Chris Jones and Dexter Lawrence for the position lead in pressures. He’s playing some of his best football at 30, showing position flexibility and a well-rounded skill set against a veteran Denver front.

Williams will spend most of his time against right guard Layden Robinson. The rookie built on a strong summer with some eye-catching moments in his debut. He held up well one-on-one and blocked with tone-setting physicality.

As good as Robinson has been, he’s still a rookie and should rarely be asked to block Williams solo. It may be a trial by fire with some understandable burns, but the matchup will be a great learning experience.

Unlike the Bengals’ defensive line, whose only real threat was Trey Hendrickson, Seattle has multiple names to watch. After Williams, the most glaring is versatile outside linebacker Boye Mafe. The lightbulb has gone off for the 2022 2nd-rounder, who trailed only Aidan Hutchinson (25.0%) in pressure rate (23.1) among edge rushers with at least 25 pass rushes.

Mafe’s primary opponent will be Vederian Lowe, who he faced with Minnesota while the tackle was at Illinois. Mafe has come a long way, but Lowe’s made impressive strides under offensive line coach Scott Peters. He allowed one hit and no sacks against Trey Hendrickson, one of the league’s most productive pass rushers.

Lowe did a good job forcing Hendrickson around the arc, but speed to power knocked him back. He must protect both corners against Mafe, who can win with speed outside or crash inside.

Nose tackle Jonathan Hankins and rookie Byron Murphy II also deserve mention. Hankins brings a space-eating presence that Cincy lacked up front, and Murphy is a rare athlete who flashed last week.

As if the players weren’t enough to worry about, Macdonald’s unique pressure packages contributed to a Week 1-leading eight unblocked pressures against Denver.

Most of the Patriots’ line has enough experience to survive against exotic games and blitzes, but Robinson understandably struggled in that area. The offense must avoid long-yardage situations that force them to hold the ball to avoid these daunting packages.

The run game has shown signs of expanding past last week’s duo-heavy script, but it can’t carry the whole load against a well-coached, explosive Seahawks defense. Fortunately, it may not have to.

In their last meeting, Brissett took Macdonald to the wire with smart throws and calculated risks.

Austin Hooper’s 31 yards led the team on a modest day for the pass-catchers. But upon further review, DeMario Douglas and Ja’Lynn Polk were open throughout the game.

Coaches noticed this week and have hinted that the two will have more prominent roles this week.

Nothing will come easy against one of the league’s most rangy and physical secondaries. Safety Julian Love must be accounted for coming off an incredible performance. He recorded an interception, three stops, and just 23 yards allowed on six targets last week.

Corners Riq Woolen (85.2, 5th) and Devon Witherspoon (80.1, 10th) also balled out, ranking top 10 in coverage grade among corners with at least 25 such snaps last week, though a horrible performance from Bo Nix helped a bit. Witherspoon is primarily a slot corner but will line up outside in three-safety packages. He also must be accounted for in the run game and as a blitzer.

Woolen spent most of his time on the boundary, which could favor New England. Avoiding the 6’4″ ballhawk should be a top priority, so Tyquan Thornton, the Patriots’ primary X receiver, could serve as a decoy. This would provide more winnable matchups with Polk on Tre Brown and Douglas on Witherspoon, particularly in critical situations where Macdonald prefers man coverage.

If the offense can keep Seattle on its toes by evolving when necessary in the run game, capitalizing on big-play opportunities, and exploiting soft zones, New England might be riding a two-game win streak on Sunday night.