Scouting Report: Keys to the Patriots Upsetting the Bengals

A new era of Patriots football kicks off Sunday as New England travels to Cincinnati to face the Bengals.

Head coach Jerod Mayo will have his first opportunity to quiet doubters after months of speculation, over-analysis, and warranted and unwarranted criticism.  As the head coach told reporters recently, this new-look team isn’t good enough to beat itself, so playing smart, tough, disciplined football to have any shot against a perennial playoff contender.

Turnovers and penalties were glaring issues last season, and they buried an already anemic offense. Players have generally protected the ball this summer, but too many flags have been thrown. The pre-snap process also needs to be cleaner than we saw at times in training camp and preseason. Between injuries in the trenches and inexperience at receiver, the group’s margin for error is thin against an aggressive and experienced Bengals defense. That’s especially true with Drake Maye on ice for the foreseeable future, though starter and captain Jacoby Brissett could surprise.

The Patriots’ defense rarely gets the credit it deserves, and this year is no exception. The pass rush is a concern after finishing towards the bottom of the league last season, particularly without Matthew Judon or Christian Barmore. This defense has talent, experience, and depth at every level, and most players have at least two seasons in the system. Keeping a lid on Cincinnati’s high-powered offense is a tall task, especially for a first-time NFL play-caller like DeMarcus Covington. Still, few units are better equipped than New England.

Special teams coordinator Jeremy Springer looks to breathe life into what’s been a mediocre-at-best unit. Brenden Schooler, Bryce Baringer, Christian Elliss, and first-time captain Joe Cardona are bright spots, and Marcellas Dial had a great summer in the game’s third phase. Joey Slye also decisively won the kicker competition with a solid summer. A complementary effort should help keep things steady, but an impact play or two could swing momentum in the Patriots’ favor.

With all that said, here are my three keys for New England getting an upset win in a hostile environment to start the season.

DON’T LET “THE BIG THREE” TAKE OVER

Mayo called Sunday’s season opener a “high-awareness game,” meaning every player must know the situation on every play. This includes the down and distance, the score, and the location of “The Big Three,” Mayo’s nickname for Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins.

Burrow hasn’t played a meaningful snap since injuring his wrist in November, but he and Higgins, this offseason’s only tag recipient without a new deal, are coming off strong summers.

While Chase returned to action Wednesday after a camp-long hold-in, he’s been limited and won’t play if he doesn’t get paid. Still, Burrow hinted the two have put in work behind the scenes, and the Patriots aren’t taking any chances.

“I’ve told our guys we’re going to prepare like he’s playing,” Mayo told reporters. “I think you have to prepare that way. If he doesn’t play, we’ll treat it like an injury. He’s a premiere player in this league without a doubt, and we have to be ready for him.”

When these teams met in 2022, New England used a bend-but-don’t-break philosophy to hide its undersized corners. This meant minimal blitzing, single-high shells, or man coverage.

The plan was largely successful, as the Patriots came a late Red Zone fumble away from a potential upset. Burrow threw three touchdowns but was also intercepted twice and had just three explosive completions (20+ yards). But the plan wasn’t foolproof, and that conservative approach led to some easy chunk plays and third-down conversions.

Thanks to Christian Gonzalez, New England has someone who can challenge Cincy’s receivers in this matchup. The corner didn’t meet external expectations in camp, but he also struggled last summer before earning Defensive Rookie of the Month for September. Gonzalez has the athleticism, poise, and ball skills to hang with anyone, and Mayo said he has the tools to be a “premier corner in this league.”

Chase and Higgins are big, fast, physical, and can line up anywhere on the field, so there’s no clear-cut indication of how Gonzalez will be deployed. The defense’s most likely options are having him:

1. Shadow Higgins, with extra attention dedicated to Chase
2. Shadow Chase, with extra attention dedicated to Higgins
3. Stick to the boundary and handle ISO matchups (the defense’s strategy in last season’s opener)

Shadowing at least one of the receivers seems like the smart way to go. I’d love to see Gonzalez tested against a top-tier player like Chase, but taking Burrow’s favorite target out schematically makes the most sense. Defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington praised Burrow’s ability to find the open man, so he’ll bypass a bad look in most situations. Higgins is a tough assignment in his own right, but he’s undeniably the Robin to Chase’s Batman. If Gonzalez can limit Higgins, it could force Burrow towards his complementary pieces.

It will also be interesting to see who plays alongside Gonzalez. Jonathan and Marcus Jones should start as two of the team’s stickiest cover guys. Still, mixing in Marco Wilson, Alex Austin, and even Isaiah Bolden could help even things up against a gargantuan Bengals receiver corps.

Another way to keep the ball out of Chase and Higgins’ hands is to get to Burrow, but personnel options could be limited for the Patriots’ front.

Edge depth is a concern, as Joshua Uche (foot) and Oshane Ximines (ankle) have been limited at best since the final week of camp. Defensive tackles Daniel Ekuale and Jeremiah Pharms bring juice as pass rushers, but neither keeps coordinators up at night.

The pass rush’s best hope may be hybrid defenders Keion White and Deatrich Wise. White wreaked havoc on opposing pockets this preseason. He’s admitted he’s more comfortable inside but has worked diligently to improve on the edge.

Wise made the most of his limited preseason reps, notching two sacks on 12 pass rushes. Both came off the edge, but Wise was also a handful for the Bengals’ interior in 2022, which included two of last season’s worst pass-blocking guards, Alex Cappa and Cordell Volson.

New England can also manufacture pressure schematically. This could include Cover 0 looks to force quick throws, simulated pressures (shows blitz) or creeper pressures (doesn’t show blitz) to confuse protection by sending unconventional rushers, and line games to test chemistry and awareness.

If New England holds Burrow’s dynamic duo under 100 yards each, forces other skill players to win in critical moments, and generates timely pressure, it will remind the league why their defense shouldn’t be taken lightly.

CONTROL THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE

When Mayo was asked how his team could beat the Bengals, he first mentioned controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. That shouldn’t be a problem for the defense, which boasts excellent run defenders in Davon Godchaux, Anfernee Jennings, and Jahlani Tavai and solid pass rushers in White and Wise. Things look bleaker for New England on offense.

Left tackle Vederian Lowe (abdomen) and left guard Sidy Sow (ankle) are doubtful after suffering late-summer injuries. Lowe is a less-than-ideal starter, and Sow’s inconsistency had him competing with rookie Layden Robinson toward the end of training camp. But both made significant strides under Scott Peters and his strike system, which has unlocked their powerful punches and Lowe’s rare arm length. They were also part of a group that allowed just four knockdowns this preseason, though Lowe missed the finale, so replacing them will be tricky.

The Patriots’ blindside replacement will likely be Chukwuma Okorafor, the top right tackle before Lowe went down. Okorafor has looked solid on the right side, but his pressure rate allowed more than doubled when playing on the left (11.5%) in a limited preseason sample size. In practice this week, the team has used a combination of Nick Leverett and practice squadder Michael Jordan at guard. Leverett is a smart and athletic interior backup, but he was pushed backward too often this preseason. He and Jordan also lack experience next to Okorafor. Robinson will also start at right guard after a strong preseason, though he derailed multiple plays in Washington after being put on skates due to high pads.

These issues could spell trouble against a talented Bengals front headlined by Trey Hendrickson, one of the league’s most productive edge rushers.

“All those guys up front [Trey Hendrickson, Sam Hubbard] do a good job,” Mayo said during his Wednesday presser. “Trey [Hendrickson] has everything you want in a defensive end. He has a great motor and great technique. Over the last few years, he’s put up big numbers. He’s definitely a target for us [to watch out for].”

Quick throws, chips, and extra blockers could slow Hendrickson down, but the best way to mitigate a strong pass rush is by playing complimentary football and avoiding long yardage. For the Patriots, that starts with the ground game, which Mayo expressed confidence in while speaking to reporters.

“Toughness, for me, is important. … after seeing these guys each and every day during [training] camp, the progress that’s been made in the running game with their mentality has been great. That unit is led by David Andrews, who’s one of the toughest guys I’ve ever been around.”

Andrews finished last season as one of the league’s best run-blocking centers and hasn’t lost a step. Road graders Robinson and Mike Onwenu have devastating potential on the right side, even if there are speed bumps from the rookie.

Antonio Gibson was limited on Thursday, but he forms a diamond one-two punch with Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson is primed for a breakout year in Van Pelt’s wide zone scheme, which was a staple during his time at Oklahoma. The duo’s quick feet, contract balance, and speed should give the Bengals’ second and third levels issues.

Cincy also had one of the league’s worst ground defenses last season, ranking 6th-lowest in EPA/play allowed (explosiveness) and 11th-lowest in positive EPA rate allowed (efficiency). This offseason, they swapped elite space-eater D.J. Reader with Sheldon Rankins, an exceptional penetrator but subpar run defender.

Van Pelt and Peters faced the Bengals at least twice a year while coaching in Cleveland, so they’re well-versed in handling an Anarumo defense. 2022’s Brissett-led offense beat the Bengals 32-13. In last season’s opener, the Browns shocked Cincy with a 24-3 upset win in a plan centered around attacking Hendrickson and the left side on the ground.

New England lacks the firepower for a shootout, so running the ball well is crucial. Doing so will keep the playbook open and the Bengals’ offense sidelined, maximizing the Patriots’ chances of an upset.

HAVE ANSWERS FOR PRESSURE PACKAGES

Van Pelt mentioned “understanding issues” and having “answers to issues that arise” when explaining how Drake Maye could earn a starting job. That statement felt tailor-made for the Patriots’ first two games, when they’ll face two of the league’s most aggressive defensive coordinators. Anarumo isn’t exactly blitz-happy, but he’s adept at disguising where pressures are coming from, ranking 7th in simulated pressure rate last season (23.1%) and 6th in slot corner blitz rate (27.4%).

“Whether it’s the star, the nickel, the corner coming off the edge, the linebacker — they send people from everywhere, and they’re very fundamentally sound,” Mayo said. “We also have to be sound in our approach offensively. Like I said earlier, you can settle games down by running the football, and control the game that way. I think that has to be one of the things that we get done.”

This further highlights the importance of a strong ground game for New England, but the offense still needs answers when Cincy brings the heat or sends an atypical rusher. Brissett lost ground to Maye late this summer, and his inconsistency warrants some apprehension. Still, the veteran’s years of experience are undeniable advantages, and he historically excels as a processor and decision-maker. Mayo highlighted all of these attributes earlier this week.

“Going back to the spring, just being familiar with the offense has helped him [Jacoby Brissett], first and foremost,” Mayo explained. “Secondly, he makes the right decisions. I think he gives us the best chance to win games based on his experience. He’s done it. He’s played out there, and hopefully we can talk about this after the game and there was no turnovers and no interceptions.”

And while Brissett isn’t the fleetest of foot, he does have a knack for improvising when things break down. This was on display multiple times when Brissett last faced the Bengals.

 

The matchup was Brissett’s best game in Cleveland. He went 17-22 for 278 yards and a touchdown, earning a 133.7 passer rating. Outside of one ugly turnover on a forced play, he was perfect against Anarumo’s pressure schemes.

No one expects that stellar performance from Brissett on Sunday. He’s facing an experienced defense behind a patchwork line. And while the receiving corps has plenty of talent, it’s largely unproven. But if Brissett protects the ball, puts New England in the best positions to succeed, and delivers on at least half of his downfield attempts, the offense could buy some breathing room after an offseason of scrutiny.