Scouting Report: Keys to the Patriots Stunning the Texans

The Patriots look to break a four-game losing streak this weekend against the Texans, who have won four of their first five. But unlike previous weeks, they won’t be crossing their fingers Jacoby Brissett regains form.

On Tuesday afternoon, Ian Rapoport announced that Drake Maye would finally be named New England’s starting quarterback.

Head coach Jerod Mayo made the move official on Wednesday morning. He praised Brissett for his “egoless mentality,” calling the veteran a warrior for the punishment he took while under center. However, earlier in the week, Mayo said that Brissett’s performance against the Dolphins simply wasn’t good enough, foreshadowing the team’s decision.

There was speculation over whether this was a panic move from the team, which emphasized having a plan for their rookie quarterback way back in the spring. But coaches pushed back against that notion, citing Maye’s strong end to the summer and continued upward trajectory behind the scenes.

Mayo had the final say, but he did consult his offensive coaches. That included coordinator Alex Van Pelt, who said he was on board with the decision after several close losses.

“Offensively, we’re not where we wanna be from a production standpoint, especially in the pass game,” Van Pelt said during his Thursday press conference. “I think that leads to some of that decision, and also to see his growth and development over those weeks of practice and what he’s put on the practice field. I think two of those combined. We’re close. We’re a couple plays away from being three and two, and feeling a lot better about where we are right now. But the reality of it is we’re not, we’re 1-4. And at this point, we need to find something to get us a chance to win on Sunday. And we thought with Drake’s development over the past first part of the season on the practice field that he was ready to step in and take over.”

There’s no question Maye raises the offense’s ceiling, even if there will be plenty of growing pains along the way. But like his mentor, the rookie will face a tough Texans team in his starting debut.

DeMeco Ryans’ squad hasn’t been racking up points, which has led to several close games. Still, they’re second in passing yards per game (272.2), and their defense allows the fourth-fewest yards (274.2). Fortunately for New England, there are some parallels between this matchup and their opener against the Bengals that could once again keep things close for Houston.

Young star Joe Burrow was without Tee Higgins (hamstring), Cincy had an exploitable ground defense, and edge Trey Hendrickson was the only true pass-rushing threat.

This Sunday, incumbent Offensive Rookie of the Year CJ Stroud won’t have Nico Collins (hamstring), and Houston has had trouble stopping the run, though they have two legit edge rushers in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr.

After receiving a dozen flags last week, the Patriots will look to be more disciplined and keep from beating themselves. That could be the difference against the Texans, who lead the NFL with 47 penalties against.

If New England can replicate their Week 1 script of playing clean football, minimizing penalties, and leaning on their run game and defense, Maye could provide enough of a spark to beat one of the AFC’s best teams.

Here are my three keys for New England stunning the Texans.

All stats courtesy of PFF.

GET TO 30+ CARRIES (FOR REAL THIS TIME)

I made this point last week, but it’s even truer now than it was with Brissett under center. Maye should significantly increase the offense’s margin for error, relying on him would be a mistake.

New England is the league’s only team allowing pressure on 45+% of dropbacks (48.3%). They also lead the NFL with an 18.0% knockdown rate, which accounts for sacks and hits. Rare consistency at tackle and guard should benefit the unit, which improved as the game continued. But center is a glaring hole, as New England immediately felt the loss of stalwart David Andrews last week.

Nick Leverett struggled mightily, allowing 11 pressures due to mental and physical lapses. The second-string center is still adjusting to the position and has been limited by an ankle injury, both of which likely affected his performance. But whether Maye is taking snaps from an injured Leverett or undrafted free agent Brian Hudson, interior protection, blitzes, and line games will be concerns.

“A very somewhat basic [defense] in first and second down, but oh my gosh, when you get to third down, they’re coming from everywhere,” Van Pelt explained. “They have every conceivable package of structures of defense, and they bring all their guys, so big challenge for us from a protection standpoint. If we can stay out of third down all game, that’d be excellent, but I know we’ll be in it, and we have to perform on third down, stay on the field.”

Van Pelt has preached the importance of young quarterbacks knowing how to protect themselves, namely by understanding weaknesses in protection schemes and where issues may arise. But he told reporters the scheme can provide an extra layer of protection, touching on the run game, quick game, and screens.

That sounds great on paper, not all of it suits the offense we’ve seen. From what we’ve seen in games, Maye has struggled with quick game throws since the preseason. New England has also been one of the league’s worst screen teams.

That leaves running the ball, which the Patriots have actually done quite well.

The ground game had its best game of the season against Miami, recording a season-high five explosive runs and 7.7 yards per carry. Backs also averaged 3.1 yards before carry, the first time they’ve averaged at least 2.0.

Mike Onwenu and Demontrey Jacobs dominated the right side on duo, and the offense continues to show growth on outside zone. Vederian Lowe had a few dominant reps in an imperfect showing, and Michael Jordan continued to impress in his return to left guard.

Rhamondre Stevenson (foot) has missed two practices after a dominant showing and his first fumble-free day of the season. He’d be sorely missed, but Antonio Gibson has looked excellent in limited opportunities. Kevin Harris and JaMycal Hasty are also capable rotational rushers.

This strength plays to a glaring weakness for the Texans: their movable interior. Houston ranks fifth-lowest in EPA per play allowed (explosiveness) and is tied for sixth-lowest in positive EPA rate allowed (consistency).

The Bills successfully ran on Houston with a formula the Patriots used against Seattle, a game in which rising left guard Michael Jordan shined. Buffalo used a combination of duo from 11 personnel (one back, one tight-end) and outside zone from heavier groupings to exploit the inside of Houston’s defense and capitalize on their overaggression.

Van Pelt seemed to underutilize the run game early against Miami, but he returned to it in the second half. He must keep his foot on the gas this week and aim for 30+ carries for the sake of his young quarterback. That includes the third-and-long situations that have plagued New England’s front all season. Coaches have also hinted Maye could be a factor in the run game, which we saw this preseason.

The rookie will get his chance to take shots off of play-action and from empty sets, and he’ll inevitably have to pass in less-than-ideal situations. But minimizing Maye’s and the line’s opportunities to unnecessarily put him in harm’s way should be necessary for the twenty-two-year-old passer in his starting debut. That means winning time of possession, staying ahead of the chains, and controlling the line of scrimmage.

PROTECT YOUR EDGES

The Texans’ exotic fronts and line games will be a tough challenge for New England’s budding line. But before they even think about their 3rd down trickery, the Patriots must deal with Hunter and Anderson.

The edge duo is tied for eigth at their position in pressures (21). Hunter also ranks eigth in pass rush win rate (19.1%, min. 100 pass rushes), showing the veteran hasn’t lost a step.

“They’re very talented edge rushers,” Van Pelt told reporters. “We gotta make sure we handle those edges. It’s almost having two guys like [Nick] Bosa a little bit on the edges, so we gotta make sure we handle that. Taking care of the edges.”

Vederian Lowe was perfect in protection last week against Chop Robinson. Van Pelt had high praise for the tackle, who he says is playing at a high level and called the position’s best pass-blocker. Lowe (knee) should also play healthier after being a full participant since Thursday.

Demontrey Jacobs impressed in his third consecutive start and second at right tackle. Van Pelt said he was “encouraged by the edges” last week, noting Jacobs’ growth as the game continued. His two pressures allowed were a late blitz pick-up and a loss to Emmanuel Ogbah during last week’s comeback drive. Both errors are highly correctable.

The tackles’ stocks may be on the rise, but they’ll face much tougher challenges this week. Hunter has several tricks up his sleeve, but Jacobs must be wary of his devastating inside-spin move. Anderson is less technically robust, but his ability to win with speed or power will keep Lowe on his toes.

Play-calling, schemed help, and throwing on time will help, but minimizing quick losses will be key.

CONTAIN HOUSTON’S BACKFIELD

When most people think of the Texans’ offensive offense, CJ Stroud and his stacked receiving corps understandably come to mind. Keeping a lid on their aerial attack will be a tall task, even without Nico Collins (hamstring). But first, they must control the line of scrimmage against a top line. Defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington broke down what makes Houston’s front so formidable.

“They fly off the ball,” Covington explained. “They do a good job of getting to the second level. They do a good job with the combination blocks on the first level. … What they do is similar to what Miami and San Francisco do. … They do a good job building the front where you get quick linemen who can move very well and create movement up front.”

Covington singled out all-world left tackle Laremy Tunsil, who has long been a focal point of the Texans’ offense,

“You’re running behind Tunsil, man. He’s a pro for a reason, a Pro Bowl player for a reason, whether it’s the pass game or run game.”

The Patriots will look to rebound against Bobby Slowik after a rough two-week stretch against his mentor, Kyle Shanahan, and former Washington colleague, Mike McDaniel. Only the Browns (12) have allowed more runs of 10+ yards than New England (10) since Week 4. Unsurprisingly, over half of those came against the tree’s signature outside zone.

Davon Godchaux pointed to continuity as a key to Houston’s success up front. But ironically, a lack of continuity has taken the teeth out of a perennially stout run defense.

Ja’Whaun Bentley and Christian Barmore aren’t expected to play this season, Jabrill Peppers’ status is unknown after his recent arrest, and New England was without both starting safeties last week with Kyle Dugger (ankle) sidelined.  Anfernee Jennings has also missed time, though he was excellent in his return against Miami.

Veteran Raekwon McMillan is filling in admirably for Bentley, but he’s a liability against the run. Keion White has been hot and cold, but the cold has led to some big runs. Young nose tackles Eric Johnson and Jacquelin Roy have been solid, but understandably inconsistent.

On the bright side, having others fill in at the nose has allowed Godchaux to dominate offensive tackles. This could even the odds against Tunsil when New England is in five-man fronts.

Fellow defensive tackle Daniel Ekuale is also coming off the best game of his career, which included multiple run stops and a sack for the primary Barmore replacement.

If Johnson or Roy can continue to grow inside, the defense could help keep McMillan clean at the second level. The potential return of Dugger, who was upgraded from a non-participant to limited on Thursday, should also free up Marte Mapu to play in the backend or slot. The versatile safety was impressive in orchestrating the defense, and he has a bright future, but he was pancaked multiple times against Miami.

Making Houston one-dimensional should help protect Jahlani Tavai and second-level zone defenders on play action and under-center dropbacks. The Patriots want to be a man defense, but having to respect run has forced them to play zone on early downs. Consequently, quarterbacks have shredded the middle of their defense with downfield in-breakers off play action, which delays drops and keeps defenders from getting proper depth.

If the Patriots can suffocate Houston’s run game, they can give themselves the best chance to succeed against the pass by playing their best-and-butter man coverage. Stroud can consistently beat perfect coverage with perfect passes, but the defense has solid matchup opportunities in the secondary.

Stefon Diggs’ competitiveness will challenge Christian Gonzalez, but he should have no trouble hanging with the former Bill. Jonathan and Marcus Jones have similar skill sets to Tank Dell, though Marco Wilson could struggle against the young star. Dell Pettus has also been impressive in man coverage, which should be useful against Dalton Schultz.

New England’s front helped out its backend by keeping Tyler Huntley contained last week, which must continue against Stroud.

There aren’t many weak spots on their interior, but White could challenge an aging Mason. Joshua Uche should also have success against right tackle Tytus Howard, who could miss the game with a hamstring injury.

If the defense can be disciplined overall, sound in their rush lanes, and steady on the ground, the Patriots could drag Houston into another nail-biter.