Scouting Report: Keys to the Patriots Shocking the 49ers

The Patriots travel to Santa Clara this weekend to face the 49ers in a battle of 1-2 teams.

While New England and San Francisco have the same record, the former is a clear underdog against head coach Kyle Shanahan’s perennial Super Bowl contender.

“I would say with San Fran, you look at it all three phases,” Jerod Mayo told reporters on Monday. “Look, obviously, their record’s not really reflective of the team that they are and can be going forward. They’re dealing with injuries as well. … They have a lot of good players on that team, offensively and defensively, All-Pro-caliber players almost at every level if you really look at the roster. So, it’s definitely a challenge.”

Both squads will be without key players on both sides. Reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey (calf/Achilles) is on injured reserve, as is Patriots linebacker and captain Ja’Whaun Bentley. Pro Bowler Javon Hargrave (triceps) has already been ruled out, while stars Deebo Samuel (calf) and George Kittle (hamstring) have been limited when at practice. New England could also be without its starting left tackle, with Vederian Lowe (knee) not participating this week.

Even without their well-known names banged up, the 49ers have found ways to push the ball downfield as one of the league’s most aggressive passing attacks. Most would assume young stud Christian Gonzalez will shadow Brandon Aiyuk, but the stud wide receiver has been quiet after holding in this summer. Instead, Jauan Jennings has stepped up as Brock Purdy’s go-to target.

The 49ers could be New England’s toughest test this season, but there are a few paths to an upset for the ragtag squad to bounce back from their embarrassing defeat to the Jets.

Here are my keys for the Patriots to shock in Levi’s Stadium.

All stats courtesy of PFF unless stated otherwise.

ESTABLISH THE RUN

Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt has been heavily criticized since his group’s three-point performance last week. Most of that heat stems from the play-caller dialing up play-action before making New York respect the run.

The Patriots falling behind 14-0 by their third possession didn’t help. The run game also failed to make an impact in limited opportunities. Still, Van Pelt acknowledged he would’ve called the game differently based on how things played out.

“We thought that we earned the right to be able to push the ball downfield,” he told reporters on Friday. “We’re trying to find more explosives in our pass game, and that comes through the run and the run action. That was the thought process going in. Again, in hindsight, I’d probably run it a little bit more early.”

Growing pains are expected for any first-time play-caller, and New England’s downfield attack has been virtually nonexistent this season. But as the coaching staff has preached, it’s all about improving week-to-week.

This Sunday, running effectively will be a must against a 49ers defense with elite players at every level. Van Pelt called edge rusher Joey Bosa a “nightmare” on Thursday, while Mayo called linebacker Fred Warner “one of the best in the league.” Charvarius Ward is also a premier corner and playmaker.

With Demontrey Jacobs manning the left tackle spot and Sidy Sow (ankle) playing for the first time in weeks, the Patriots’ margin for error will be slim. That will be especially true if Jacoby Brissett fails to capitalize on opportunities for chunk plays. Fortunately for the offense, they have a key advantage in this matchup.

Only the Rams and Bills have called more duo runs than the Patriots this season. Rhamondre Stevenson has thrived on this concept, especially when running behind or outside of Mike Onewenu, Layden Robinson, and David Andrews.

Conversely, San Francisco’s run defense ranks 6th-worst in EPA per play (consistency) and 7th-worst in positive EPA rate allowed. And most of those struggles have come against, you guessed it, duo.

The 49ers’ one saving grace has been strong tackling, as they’ve missed just 9% of attempts against the run. That will be tested against Stevenson, who Mayo called a top-five tackle-breaker in the NFL. The bell cow’s stats back that up, as he ranks 3rd in the NFL in missed tackles forced on runs.

For New England to move the ball, they must commit to their run game while mixing in complimentary throws to keep the defense on its toes. DeMario Douglas should also be a focal point for a second week during what Van Pelt called a “get it out of your hand quick” week. The offensive coordinator did a great job building on looks and motions from previous weeks against the Jets. However, tying them together more effectively will be a major key in San Francisco.

KEEP BROCK PURDY IN THE POCKET

The Patriots’ pass defense has struggled since limiting Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase in Week 1.

Some of these issues have been isolated incidents, like coverage busts against Geno Smith’s Seahawks and poor tackling against Aaron Rodgers’ Jets. But one specific problem has plagued New England since their win in Cincinnati.

Despite playing three pocket passers, the Patriots have been one of the worst teams at defending scrambles. The defense’s seven conversions allowed on such dropbacks are three more than the next closest teams. They’ve also allowed an NFL-high nine scramble completions on 10 targets faced, including a league-high four of 15+ yards.

These lapses have bailed quarterbacks out against tight coverage and kept drives alive in key moments.

“I think it’s a combination of [scheme and discipline issues],” Mayo told reporters on Monday. “As a whole, we have to do a better job keeping the quarterback in the pocket. That was one of the last reminders, even with [Aaron] Rodgers, was ‘let’s keep this guy in the pocket.’ He had free roam too many times. We’ll get that corrected.”

New England faces Brock Purdy this weekend, another pocket passer with scrambling ability. 2022’s Mr. Irrelevant continues to thrive in Shanahan’s scheme, with only Derek Carr (89.1) having a higher passing grade (86.4). This is especially impressive given his aggressiveness this season, with his 9.9-yard average depth of target ranking 3rd in the NFL.

Purdy’s ability to quickly scan the defense, find the open receiver, and manipulate coverage when necessary make him extremely tough to defend. He’s also deadly accurate and fearless when attacking tight windows.

Purdy is tough enough to defend from the pocket, but he also ranks 4th among quarterbacks with seven scramble conversions. Last week against the Rams, these led to a Red Zone touchdown throw, a run to get San Francisco past midfield before halftime, and another run on third down late in the third quarter.

If the Patriots can contain Purdy, they should be in solid shape. They rank or are tied for 10th in defensive success rate (55.6%), yards per target allowed (9.6), and forced incompletions (6) on downfield throws (10+ air yards).

Purdy pushing the ball has also contributed to the league’s 2nd-slowest average time to throw (3.81 seconds). This should give Joshua Uche (22.5% pass rush win rate, 7th among defenders with 25+ pass rushes) and Keion White (21.7%, 10th) time to apply pressure against San Francisco’s front, which has allowed the ninth-highest pressure rate this season (35.0%). Getting the 49ers in obvious pass situations will be key, as it will open the door for mismatches like Uche against right tackle Colton McKivitz and White against center Jake Brendel.

If contain players do their jobs, coaches avoid pressures that create escape lanes, and the rush heats up Purdy before routes can develop, New England should have a decent shot at a second road upset.

MINIMIZE YARDS AFTER CATCH/CONTACT

Entering Week 3, the Patriots (8%) were one of three defenses to miss fewer than 10% of tackle attempts. That number spiked to 13% in MetLife Stadium, with players combining for as many whiffs as the previous two weeks combined (11).

These missed tackles led to a touchdown, a pair of third-down conversions, and multiple explosive plays.

“Going back to what caused us the biggest issue was, in my opinion, defensively, tackling,” Mayo told said the Friday after the game. “We couldn’t tackle, we didn’t tackle, and we really haven’t had that problem up until this point. So we have to get that corrected.”

Losing Ja’Whaun Bentley (pec) and playing on a short week were undeniable factors. Jahlani Tavai had three uncharacteristic misses, and Bentley replacement Raekwon McMillan had two. Even the ever-reliable Jonathan Jones had a blemish while

But with extra time to improve their fundamentals, the Patriots will have no excuses in Levi’s Stadium.

The good news: San Francisco (3.1) is the only offense with fewer than 3.5 yards after catch per reception. They’re also bottom-five in missed tackles forced (6) ahead of the Saints (1), Vikings (2), and Patriots (5).

That may seem jarring, given that the 49ers are an elite YAC team annually, but they’ve also been shorthanded with McCaffrey on the ice, and Samuel and Kittle battling injuries. Those are arguably the most dangerous ball-carriers at their respective positions, so Samuel or Kittle missing Sunday’s game would be a huge break for New England.

The bad news: no rusher has broken more tackles than breakout player Jordan Mason.

The 49ers line deserves credit for opening some sizable lanes, but Mason has maximized them. He boasts impressive vision, change of direction, and burst. He compliments those with good contact balance and a violent running style.

The Patriots aren’t exactly slouches, as they rank 10th in EPA per play allowed and 5th in explosive runs allowed (four). Still, Shanahan’s motion-heavy scheme presents unique challenges, especially for an out-of-conference opponent.

It will be a battle of wills in the trenches, and each unit will surely make its share of plays. For the Patriots to stand a chance and potentially even make San Francisco one-dimensional, they can’t exacerbate things by letting Mason tear through their defense.