Scouting Report: Keys to the Patriots Getting Back on Track at Jets

The Patriots will take on the Jets tonight in a battle of 1-1 teams.

Head coach Jerod Mayo will look to right the ship after a disappointing overtime loss, while Robert Salem’s crew looks to keep their win streak alive after handing the Titans a loss at home.

Both teams boast strong defenses and formidable rushing attacks. Rhamondre Stevenson and Breece Hall are two of the league’s best young backs, and they form solid one-two punches with Antonio Gibson and Braelon Allen, respectively. Both run defenses could also be without their middle linebackers with Ja’Whaun Bentley (pec) potentially out for the season and C.J. Mosley (toe) questionable.

Ultimately, this game will come down to who throws more effectively. New York’s passing attack has the clear advantage with Aaron Rodgers, but Jacoby Brissett could do just enough to win if he takes advantage of more downfield opportunities.

Here are my three keys for New England getting back on track against the Jets.

KEEP THINGS SIMPLE ON DEFENSE

One week after shutting down Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, the Patriots allowed a Week 2-high 327 passing yards to Geno Smith and company. Smith deserves a ton of credit for his play down the stretch. He was unflinching in the face of pressure and caught onto New England’s plan late in the game.

As well as Smith played, the defense handed the Seahawks two scores on a busted coverage and end-zone pass interference call.

The interference call was Marco Wilson’s second in as many weeks, and it may have opened the door for Alex Austin to reclaim a role in the secondary. The coverage bust was a more unsettling issue, as another breakdown nearly led to a score later in the game.

Disguised coverages have become a big part of New England’s identity under new defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington. The group has primarily leaned on Cover 1 and Cover 2, but they’ve spun the dial and gotten to these concepts from different pre-snap looks.

This strategy worked wonders in Cincy, but their inherent risk was on full display against a seasoned passer in Smith. These lapses can’t happen against Aaron Rodgers, who’s still carving up defenses at 40. If one coverage defender is out of position, Rodgers will find and exploit the mismatch.

The Jets’ hopeful savior is also protecting himself by getting the ball out, trailing only Tua Tagovailoa (2.31 seconds) for the quickest average time to throw (2.38 seconds). Given Rodgers’ quick release and experience against every defense, it may behoove New England to rely more on structural stability than dizzying disguises.

In terms of matchups, Christian Gonzalez handled Garrett Wilson well in last season’s matchup and should have similar success in round two. However, the Jets have size advantages at receiver with Allen Lazard and Mike Williams. Marcus Jones was competitive against Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jonathan Jones is one of the game’s stickiest corners, but they may fall victim to Rodgers’ pinpoint placement on vertical targets.

If the secondary can minimize big plays and not beat itself with mental mistakes, it should set up a back-and-forth affair that comes down to the final possession.

PROTECT THE QUARTERBACK AND OFFENSIVE LINE

Jacoby Brissett has been ultra-conservative through two games. He’s one of four quarterbacks without a deep completion, and his 29.4% of attempts beyond the sticks is 4th-lowest in the league. Some of this falls on the quarterback, who’s left his share of plays on the field.

Brissett needs to start capitalizing on these opportunities, but it’s hard to fault his safe approach. He’s avoided negative plays, been smart with the ball, and moved the chains in critical moments. The veteran committed zero turnover-worthy plays in Sunday’s thriller against Seattle.

The pass game’s margin for error is also razor-thin behind a patchwork offensive line. Only the Titans (45.2%) have allowed pressure at a higher rate than New England (44.3%), and it was coming from all directions against the Seahawks. Consequently, Brissett has been punished for split-seconds of indecision while being denied second, and sometimes even first reads.

Pressure was an issue throughout the game, but it was unrelenting by the late 3rd quarter. Unlike last week, when the offense went downhill and bullied the Bengals, the need to throw kept them on their heels.

“I would say there were spurts of clean pockets, but it needs to be more consistent,” Mayo told reporters. “I would also say, as we got into the second half…our pass-pro kind of broke down a little bit more. I still believe that we have a well-conditioned team, but I would say, on both sides of the ball yesterday, you saw a lot of hands on hips. You have to be able to push through that adversity, still be on the same page and ultimately execute.”

The line, which features a career backup at left guard and a rookie on the right, will also be without left tackle Vederian Lowe (knee). This will thrust third-round pick Caedan Wallace into the starting lineup on a short week. Wallace has looked good as a “muscle” tight end in heavy packages, but he’s mostly repped at right tackle and has only pass-protected once during game action.

The entire Patriots’ front, including stalwarts Mike Onwenu and David Andrews, needs to play better. Still, the coaches will have to take pressure off their quarterback and his spotty protection.

The Jets rank 5th-highest in pressure rate (40.6%), and only the Chiefs (32) and Seahawks (30) have generated more pressures than New York (28). Team pressure leader Jermaine Johnson (Achilles) has been ruled out, but All-Pro Quinnen Williams is always a problem, and Michael Clemons (6), Will McDonald IV (5), and Javon Kinlaw (5) all have at least five pressures.

Fortunately, New England has a good matchup on paper against the Jets’ run defense, which ranks 9th-worst in EPA/play allowed (explosiveness) and 12th-worst in positive EPA rate allowed (consistency). Even without Lowe, Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson should continue riding their hot streak behind Andrews, Onwenu, Layden Robinson, and a budding Michael Jordan.

When the Patriots do throw the ball, getting it out quickly should be a priority. Only Jalen Hurts (3.28) and Kyler Murray (3.25) have slower average times to throw than Brissett (3.23). which won’t fly against the Jets. The issue could be alleviated with more quick game concepts and screens, which Brissett leaned on when he last faced the Jets as a Brown in 2022.

Getting the ball to playmakers in space should be enough to complement the ground game and make life easier on the quarterback and offensive line. But doing so will mean finally bucking what’s become an unsustainable pattern for New England.

GET POP AND POLK INVOLVED

Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper have carried New England’s aerial attack. The Bengals and Patriots’ tight ends lead the league in target rate and yards per route run, and New England’s group is tied for the position lead with four explosive receptions.

Reliability from his big-bodied veterans has been key to Brissett’s success, but there’s been a glaring problem.

The Patriots have the league’s only wide receiver group without 100 combined receiving yards (85), and they rank last in receptions (11). Separation has been a four-letter word in New England since Julian Edelman’s last snap, but stats and tape show two youngsters are getting open.

Ja’Lynn Polk leads all rookie receivers in Fantasy Points Data’s win rates, and Football Insights’ metrics show he’s created separation despite his lack of production. He’s also made the most of the targets that came his way.

DeMario Douglas received zero touches in Week 2 after seeing two targets in the opener. He voiced his frustration while speaking to reporters on Friday. Douglas replied “Last year, not this year,” when asked if he felt he was able to show what he could do. He also said “You can tell” receivers are getting open on film.

The jitterbug was technically targeted once last week, but that was wiped out by a defensive penalty. Despite this lack of involvement, Douglas was also used as a decoy twice and didn’t receive the game’s only receiver carry, which oddly went to Polk.

The screens, quick game targets, and designed touches mentioned above have Pop written all over them. Among wide receivers with at least 50 targets last season, only Deebo Samuel (8.7), Rashee Rice (8.3), and Douglas (7.0) averaged at least seven yards after catch per reception. That proficiency as a ball-carrier must be exploited, especially against a banged-up Jets secondary. Douglas has also shown he can go toe-to-toe with slot corner Michael Carter (ankle).

D.J. Reed (knee) is one of the league’s scrappiest corners, but Polk’s size and strong hands could be an advantage on short-intermediate routes. The rookie’s looked good on play-action dropbacks, which should also see an uptick this week. Capitalizing on at least a couple of these opportunities would provide much-needed chunk plays to supplement the ground and short passing game.

The receivers’ lack of production didn’t lose New England Sunday’s game, but it helped keep Seattle competitive. That’s dangerous territory against an Aaron Rodgers-led team, even at this stage of his career. If the Patriots want to get themselves some breathing room against a talented Jets offense, spreading the ball around and getting young playmakers involved will be crucial.