Scouting Report: Keys to the Patriots Bouncing Back vs the Dolphins

Head coaches Jerod Mayo and Mike McDaniel desperately need a win to snap three-game losing streaks and avoid potentially losing buy-in in their locker rooms.

New England’s coaching and execution haven’t been good enough, but it’s also impossible to ignore the impact of injuries through four weeks. Key defenders Christian Barmore (blood clots) and Ja’Whaun Bentley (pec) are on injured reserve, while first-time captain Kyle Dugger (ankle) and rookie Caedan Wallace (ankle) are expected to miss time. It was also announced this week that longtime leader and heart of the offense, David Andrews, will undergo shoulder surgery and miss the rest of 2024.

Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt told reporters, “You can’t fill those shoes with one foot,” when asked about the impact of Andrews’ loss.

“I mean, obviously it’s a huge drop. It’s just the person, the leader, everything, his intelligence, experience. It’s big shoes to fill. But we’ll have to collectively fill them between Nick [Leverett] and Jacoby [Brissett].”

Leverett has been mixing in with the starters all season in practice, so the staff has confidence he and Brissett can handle the pre-snap communication effectively.

While their injury luck has been brutal thus far, reinforcements may be coming. Wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (knee), linebacker Sione Takitaki (knee), and Marte Mapu (calf) all returned to practice after stints on the PUP list, and Mayo hinted we could see at least one of these players suit up on Sunday.

Getting Bourne back would be a big morale boost for the offense, which is currently last in the league in points per game.

“I would say [Kendrick] brings great energy everywhere he goes,” Mayo told reporters. “So, going back to missing some of those guys, our leaders in the – I know he wasn’t voted captain, but he did have a significant amount of votes from his peers. I thought that said a lot for a guy that didn’t practice. Just his energy and his vibe is contagious, and we can’t wait until he’s out there making plays.”

The Patriots must return to their Week 1 game plan of winning through their ground game and defense, but both units must be more consistent than they’ve been. The Red Zone offense also has to improve, as Mayo called scoring less than 20 points unsustainable.

Here are my three keys for the Patriots getting back on track against the Dolphins.

All stats courtesy of PFF.

GET TO 30+ CARRIES

As Mayo and Van Pelt have mentioned multiple times, the Patriots want to be a running team. But slow starts in their past two games have forced them to be one-dimensional, which has had a major impact on their offensive efficiency.

Part of the problem has been Rhamondre Stevenson’s fumbling issues. His four fumbles are double the next closest rushers, and he’s lost one in back-to-back games. Though he returned after a brief benching last week, Mayo told reporters his bell-cow could face further repercussions this weekend.

“[Benching Rhamondre] is definitely under consideration,” Mayo said during a Wednesday presser. “I’ve had multiple conversations with Rhamondre. But look, we can’t preach that ball security is job security and still have him out there the majority of the time. So, I think it sends a stronger message to the players that there are certain things that we just can’t do to win, especially with the team that we have today.”

If Stevenson doesn’t play, Antonio Gibson would be the next man up. He’s looked good in limited opportunities, trailing only Chase Brown (4.5) in yards after contact per rush (4.2). JaMycal Hasty was also involved last week, and practice squadder Kevin Harris is a prime elevation candidate.

Whoever’s toting the rock for New England, their run game must be a focal point against Anthony Weaver’s defense.

Jacoby Brissett is coming off a game with five turnover-worthy plays, all in obvious passing situations. With ball magnets like Jalen Ramsey, Jevon Holland, and Kendall Fuller in the Dolphins’ secondary, dropping back 30-plus times is a risky proposition.

The offense must also avoid exposing a pass protection unit allowing the league’s highest pressure rate (47.4%). Vederian Lowe and Michael Jordan returning should help, and Leverett didn’t allow a single pressure last week once Andrews went down. But ageless wonder Calais Campbell (18.3%)  trails only Chris Jones (18.8%) in pass rush win rate among interior defensive linemen with at least 50 pass rush snaps. Fellow defensive tackle Zach Sieler is also one of just seven interior defenders with double-digit hurries (10).

Fortunately for the Patriots, they should have an advantage against a leaky Dolphins run defense.

New England didn’t have a chance to get its duo run game going in San Francisco, but their outside zone scheme continued to show signs of growth. Leverett is a better fit for the horizontal run concept than Andrews, which also suits projected starting guards Michael Jordan and Sidy Sow.

Running the ball 30 times may seem arbitrary. But for an offense to reach that threshold, it typically means they controlled the clock, kept the game close, and avoided becoming predictable. That would be a big step in the right direction for the Patriots, who used play action on a season-low 10.3% of dropbacks last week.

If the run game can take pressure off Brissett and the pass protection while wearing down the Dolphins’ front, New England has a chance at getting its offense back on track.

CONTAIN THE DOLPHINS’ BACKFIELD

After facing Kyle Shanahan last week, the Patriots will see a branch of his West Coast offense with Mike McDaniel coming to town. Defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington broke down what makes each system unique during his Thursday press conference.

“You think about 49ers, they want to run the football,” Covington explained. “They want to run the football. You know you’re going to go into the game with 40, 50 runs, period. And then Mike McDaniel’s coming with the creative shifts and motions and all the different eye candies before the pre-snap motions and stuff like that. And then he has players to get in space. … There is the same philosophy West Coast inside passing outside running philosophy there from both teams, but it’s a different window dressing for the teams between the two.”

McDaniel, once a run game coordinator under Shanahan, also loves to pound the rock. But like the Patriots, lopsided scores have forced his offense outside its comfort zone. Miami’s rushing attack has also struggled with star back Raheem Mostert (chest) out the past three games. They rank 31st in EPA per play (explosiveness) on running back carries, and 16th in positive EPA rate (efficiency).

However, with Mostert set to return and the Dolphins fielding their fourth quarterback this season, New England’s ground defense must bring its A-game.

The Patriots’ tackling improved last week after a down game on Thursday Night Football. But after allowing just one explosive run through the first two weeks, the defense has allowed four in consecutive games. Five of those carries have come on outside zone concepts, and all but one went in Keion White’s direction. The only big run that didn’t target White was a toss towards Jahlani Tavai, which the Dolphins had success with last season.

New England must also account Tyler Huntley, the first dual-threat quarterback they’ve faced this season. The defense struggled to contain three pocket passers in Joe Burrow, Geno Smith, and Aaron Rodgers, but they kept Brock Purdy hemmed in after a rough opening drive. That discipline will be crucial against Huntley, who made big plays with his legs against the Titans.

The run defense and contain should improve if physical edge-setter Anfernee Jennings (shoulder) returns after missing last week’s game. His absence thrust Joshua Uche into an early-down role that didn’t fit his skill set, and the results were predictably tough to watch. Undrafted rookie Curtis Jacobs eventually entered the mix after Uche flew upfield on a walk-in touchdown run.

Keion White’s will also play a major factor up front.

The versatile defender has been a one-man wrecking crew at times, but his aggressive style has also led to poor fundamentals and breakdowns.

“Keion has been one of our most impactful players, and we look forward to his continued growth,” Covington said. “But again, it comes down to execution. It comes down to discipline. It comes down to doing what’s right for the team and not for the individual.”

Covington credited White for bouncing back after a sloppy first series, but he must prove he can play gap-sound for four quarters. Keeping him inside on passing downs and outside in run situations should also help.

If New England can contain Miami’s backfield, make them one-dimensional, and keep Huntley in the pocket, the secondary should be set up for success against the Dolphins’ speedy receiving corps.

DON’T SLEEP ON TYLER HUNTLEY

Losing Tua Tagovailoa was a huge blow for the Dolphins’ offense, and McDaniel has done a poor job adjusting to his loss. However, the Patriots aren’t sleeping on Miami’s offense or its most recent signal-caller.

“Very, very fast, explosive team who likes to get the ball in space to their players and who can take shots down the field, which, Huntley can take a shot down the field,” Covington told reporters. “So, you’re talking about like a guy who hasn’t played in the one year, he made it to the what? Pro Bowl. So, you’re dealing with a quarterback that we have much respect for who can throw the ball down the field and also use his legs to pick up first downs. So, we definitely got a challenge.”

Huntley has started just two games in as many seasons, but he’s undeniably talented. In addition to his mobility, the former Raven has a good arm and takes what defenses give him. Huntley thrived on throws over the intermediate-deep middle last week, an area the Patriots have had trouble defending this season.

Covington may go with a more Quarters-heavy approach like he did against the 49ers. This would take pressure off linebackers by having two safeties defending middle. However, this could be risky with Kyle Dugger (ankle) out and Jabrill Peppers dealing with a shoulder injury.

Peppers missing any snaps would make third-stringer Jaylinn Hawkins and undrafted rookie Dell Pettus the only true safety options. Both have had their moments, but they were also each involved in miscommunications last week.

Mapu, who Covington lauded for his intelligence, could be in the mix this weekend, but he will surely be on a snap count.

If the early down defense does its job, New England can major in its bread-and-butter man coverage.

Jonathan Jones has shadowed Tyreek Hill in the past, and when he missed last season’s Week 2 matchup, Marcus Jones took over. But Christian Gonzalez dominated in a small sample size Hill when Jones went down early in the game. He’s also shadowed opponents’ clear top targets every week, and Hill is one of the biggest threats in football. Unless Covington favors familiarity, the budding star should see a lot of Hill. Jonathan Jones should also be able to hang with Jaylen Waddle, and Marcus Jones should smother Odell Beckham Jr.

A key matchup will be Jahlani Tavai against the Dolphins’ explosive running backs. Offenses have targeted him horizontally more than in previous seasons, and he should’ve given up a touchdown on a Jordan Mason angle route last week.

De’Von Achane has been a top-three receiver for Miami, and he’s lined up all over the field. Mostert may cut into those targets, but he’s just as dangerous. If Tavai guesses wrong in coverage, it could lead to a house call. This is another area where Mapu’s return could be helpful, but these matchups will be unavoidable with Tavai being a defensive staple.

Minimizing damage and making tackles in space will be key, not just for Tavai, but the defense as a whole. Another week of sound tackling, improved communication, and a well-coordinated rush should keep the score below 20.