Scouting Report: How the Patriots Can Bounce Back vs the Broncos

The 3-11 Patriots travel to the Mile High City this weekend to face the 7-7 Broncos. Both teams followed upset road wins in Week 13 with disappointing losses, though Denver takes the cake after getting blown out 42-17 in Detroit. Despite New England staying competitive for most of their 27-17 defeat to the Chiefs, the Broncos are 6.5-point favorites at home as they fight for a playoff spot.

The Patriots’ offense is coming off its second Jekyl and Hyde performance in as many games. Each time, Bailey Zappe and the offense looked competent for the first two quarters before collapsing under poor decisions and blocking in the 2nd half. The group will look to rebound in Denver, but last week’s slew of injuries will create an even steeper climb for a group ravaged by them this season.

Cole Strange is out for the season after having his knee rolled up on, Conor McDermott will likely miss at least one week with a head injury, and Hunter Henry missed Wednesday’s practice with a knee injury of his own. Trent Brown also missed last week due to illness and ankle and hand injuries. His illness was removed from the injury report, so it’s possible Brown will serve in a rotational role with Vederian Lowe as we’ve seen with McDermott. This could lead to Lowe seeing significant snaps next to the presumed starter at left guard, Atonio Mafi, and both rank among the worst pass blockers at their respective positions.

New England’s defense made life tough on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense last week, though Reid’s schematic sorcery and Mahomes magic burned them on a handful of reps. The group continues to dominate on the ground, holding KC’s backs to fewer than 2.5 yards per carry. New England’s defensive priorities this week seem to be slowing down Russell Wilson, who has a 110+ passer rating in every career game against the Patriots, and Courtland Sutton, whose size, athleticism, and magnetic hands make him a tough player to cover.

Weekly disclaimer that fans rooting for losses is completely fair and understandable, as New England could be a Panthers win away from the #1 pick. But there’s no tanking between the whistles, and players have been vocal about their desire to win the final three games for pride and re http://gty.im/1855952940 spect.

So, without further ado, here are the keys to New England bouncing back against the Broncos.

Don’t Let Russell Wilson Win With His Legs

Patrick Mahomes threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns against the Patriots last weekend but was held to a pedestrian 92.6 passer rating, tossed a pair of interceptions, and was sacked three times. Deatrich Wise said after the game that his defense did a “great job” but admitted the reigning MVP made his share of plays and got some free yards.

New England did a solid job containing Mahomes on extended dropbacks. The defense held KC to a pair of 3rd down stops, one in scoring territory, and throwaways on dropbacks lasting at 4+ seconds. But Mahomes refused to go down quietly, leading to a few explosive gains over the middle and a low Red Zone score.

Jalen Mills said the group “could have done a lot better” and must improve as they face a similarly dynamic threat in Russell Wilson. “[Mahomes ] is in his own category, a special guy,” Mills said, “but you can also put [Russell Wilson] in that category.” Mills also disclosed that the word of the week for New England’s secondary is “plaster,” explaining, “Once [Russell Wilson] gets off his 1st or 2nd read, that’s when he becomes Russell Wilson.”

Wilson remains one of the league’s most dangerous quarterbacks when given time, as he ranks 3rd behind Josh Allen (9) and Jalen Hurts (8) with 7 big-time throws on dropbacks lasting at least four seconds. Even in last week’s blowout against Detroit, Wilson showed the ability to make pass rushers miss and get the ball to his playmakers.

Bill Belichick also touched on Wilsno’s ability as a runner, saying he “more than probably any quarterback in the league other than [Lamar] Jackson.” Wilson is actually tied with Josh Dobbs for 6th in scrambles this season (35), and he isn’t the dynamic ball carrier he once was. Still, he’s still a threat to keep the ball on zone-read plays and can break the pocket to pick up critical conversions.

The key to containing Wilson will be a disciplined, well-coordinated rush that pins him in the pocket. For the most part, New England did a great job of this against the Chiefs.

Mahomes had to deal with a strong edge rush on all three of the defense’s sacks, but he had nowhere to step up due to interior pressure. Wilson’s smaller, compact frame will make him even tougher to bring down, so New England will have little margin for error in their rush lane discipline and tackling.

If the Patriots want to hold Wilson under a 110 passer rating for the first time in their matchups, their pass rush and coverage must work in tandem. Coverage defenders can’t lose sight of receivers on the backend when plays break down. Up front, Christian Barmore, Josh Uche, and Mack Wilson must maintain their hot streaks and bring the heat without giving Wilson easy escape hatches.

Pass to Set Up the Run

After averaging at least 4.0 yards per carry from Weeks 6-13, the Patriots have failed to crack a 3.5-yard average in either of their past two games. Bill O’Brien acknowledged these struggles while answering questions about last week’s Chiefs matchup, citing “a combination of things.”

Losing Rhamondre Stevenson to a Week 13 ankle injury has been an obvious factor, as the back looked more dynamic by the week after a slow start. Stevenson’s ability to slip and drag defenders compensated for shaky run blocking, which took a step back when Adrian Klemm left the team early last month due to health issues. But the most significant problem has been defenses hyper-focusing on the run because they don’t respect New England’s passing game. This has been especially true with Bailey Zappe under center, as disastrous 2nd halves have followed the former backup’s astonishing 1st half performances in back-to-back games.

O’Brien cited early-down blitzing as a tactic defenses have used to suffocate the rushing attack, while Bill Belichick mentioned heavy boxes. These are both staples for the Broncos, who rank 6th in middle-field-closed snaps (566)  and are sandwiched between the Patriots and Chiefs with the league’s 7th-highest blitz rate (34.6%).

Last week, the Chiefs often matched or exceeded the number of blockers for New England, then blitzed a defensive back to flood the box and force quick decisions.

Belichick told reporters that handling these looks sometimes “comes down to numbers and blocking the guys we have to block,” but there are several other strategies, including “more production throwing the ball.” Last week, New England tried creating breathing room by using play-action and RPOs to punish heavy boxes.

O’Brien said the Patriots, who rank 7th-lowest in play-action rate this season (19.8%), “really like” using run fakes, but that “it hasn’t been as consistently productive as it needs to be at times” due to protection breakdowns and poor reads. Outside of a sack on a well-timed overload blitz, the tactic worked well for New England in the 1st half against KC, producing an explosive play and Red Zone score. But Zappe committed three turnover-worthy plays on such passes in the 2nd half, including an interception on a forced throw, a fumble, and a near pick while targeting a wide-open Demario Douglas.

The offense was similarly inconsistent on RPOs, which they used to exploit slot blitzes and create numbers advantages by putting unblocked edge defenders in conflict. Kevin Harris’ touchdown was aided by the threat of a pass holding backside pursuit, and Douglas had a solid gain on a late bubble screen. But most of these plays were snuffed out due to missed blocks and interior blitzes.

The Broncos’ defense ranks 6th-lowest in rush EPA allowed (-0.043) and 9th-lowest in pass EPA allowed (0.080), allowing five passing touchdowns and nearly 200 rushing yards last week in Detroit. New England has a prime opportunity to bounce back, but they also struggled against the league’s 2nd-lowest-ranked run defense in the Chiefs last week. And this time, they’ll be without Cole Strange.

Things only get tougher for New England with the Jets and Bills coming up, so there’s no better time for their struggling offense to find a rhythm before the season’s end. To do that, Zappe must avoid critical mistakes, capitalize on opportunities that present themselves, and give the ground game some much-needed breathing room.

Contain Marvin Mims

As Belichick went through his weekly opponent breakdown on Wednesday, one of the first things he highlighted was Denver’s “very explosive” kicking game. He specifically called out receiver/returner Marvin Mims, saying the rookie is “having a great year.”

Mims should present a big challenge for the Patriots, whose 19 missed tackles and 10 penalties on special teams are both the 10th-most in the NFL. New England also ranks bottom-10 in PFF kickoff grade (51.5, 5th-lowest) and punt grade (52.3, 7th-lowest). This is disappointing for a team investing so heavily in special teams, particularly when the best of the bunch hasn’t met expectations.

Brenden Schooler seems to have regressed in Year Two after making PFWA’s All-Rookie Team last season. The special teams ace’s nine special teams tackles rank 2nd in the NFL, but he hasn’t made one since Week 9, and his seven missed tackles (four since exiting the bye, none last week) are the 2nd-most. His three penalties are also 2nd-most among special teamers, although two were borderline calls.

When asked about these recent struggles, special teams coach Cam Achord said Schooler has done a good job getting into position but needs to finish plays consistently. Regarding Schooler’s penalties, Achord touched on “technique and fundamentals” as areas that need improvement. Achord also said that while Schooler’s aggressive play is invaluable, it must be contained within the rules.

Schooler is only in his second season, and some regression was to be expected after his monster rookie season. Now, it’s up to the former Texas safety to take coaching, correct his mistakes, and finish this season on a high note. Containing the league’s best return man would be a great start.