Scouting Report: 3 Keys to the Patriots Pulling Off an Upset vs the Dolphins

The Patriots are a staggering 0-5 against Tua Tagovailoa in his career, with many of those matchups coming down to the wire. Hot off of an impressive comeback win against Josh Allen, who entered last week’s game with four consecutive wins against New England, they look to break a second-consecutive winning streak against a division-rival quarterback.

The defense performed valiantly, if imperfectly, when Miami traveled to Foxborough in Week 2. Tyreek Hill was held under 50 receiving yards for the first and only time this season, and the Dolphins scored just 24 points after putting up over 500 total yards and 36 points against the Chargers. Offensively, New England had a chance to tie the ball game on their last possession before being thwarted by the Dolphins’ pass rush.

Quite a bit has changed for the Patriots since then. Two of their best defenders are on injured reserve in Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez, but J.C. Jackson’s acquisition has softened the blow of Gonzalez’s loss, while Anfernee Jennings and Christian Barmroe have helped pick up the slack in Judon’s absence.  Mac Jones went through the worst stretch of his career from Weeks 4-5 but showed subtle improvement in Week 6 and had a career-best day last week. Demario Douglas also had a breakout performance last week, and New England may have finally found its top offensive line combination after getting Cole Strange back from a three-game absence, moving Mike Onwenu to right tackle over Vederian Lowe, and putting Sidy Sow at right guard.

As Bill Belichick noted in his press conference on Wednesday, the Dolphins aren’t a drastically different team than they were a few weeks ago. Their offense still leads the NFL in points per game (34.3, 5.6 more than the next closest team), 61 explosive receptions (15+ yards; 61, 15 more than the next closest teams), and explosive runs (10+ yards; 32, t-BAL). Coverage has been an issue for the defense (110.3 passer rating allowed, 4th-highest in NFL), but they rank top-5 in sacks (22.0, t-4th).

The biggest changes for Miami have been injury-related, losing key players like left tackle Terron Armstead, explosive running back De’Von Achane, and left guard Isaiah Wynn. Cornerback Xavien Howard (groin) and center Connor Williams (groin) were also inactive last week against the Eagles, while Tyreek Hill and Raheem Mostert didn’t practice on Wednesday (more on them later). Corners Jalen Ramsey and Nik Needham, as well as receivers River Cracraft and Erik Ezukanma, are eligible to return from IR, so there’s a chance the Dolphins get some reinforcements on both sides of the ball.

For the Patriots, Trent Brown (ankle, knee) is someone to monitor after the tackle got rolled up on against the Bills, and Keion White (concussion) missed another practice, but Josh Uche (foot) returned after being absent last week.

This is a game where injuries, or lack thereof, could make a significant difference for both teams. But at the end of the day, it always comes down to executing a game plan and making plays when they present themselves. So here are my three keys for New England to establish their first win streak of the season in Miami.

Beat the Blitz

The Dolphins’ 36.6% blitz rate against the Patriots in Week 2 was the highest New England has faced this season, narrowly edging out the Bills (34.5%). It was Miami’s 2nd-highest blitz rate of the season, sandwiched between last week’s game against the Eagles (38.2%) and Week 6 against the Panthers (36.6%). Few defenses have been as effective when sending extra heat, with the Dolphins ranking 2nd in the NFL in sacks (12; BAL, 14) and 10th in pressure rate on such plays.

Mac Jones went a modest 9-13 for 79 yards when blitzed against the Dolphins, but he played better than the stats suggest.

The quarterback picked Miami apart, getting the ball out quickly, finding his hot reads, and showing great anticipation on a dig to DeVante Parker to convert a 3rd & 7 late in the game. Many of the plays dialed up in that game were similar to what we saw from New England against Buffalo, including quick-hitters, RPOs, and bootlegs.

Jones’ four incompletions were all downfield attempts to Kendrick Bourne, which we haven’t seen much of recently. He also took two nearly instant sacks behind a patchwork line featuring Vederian Lowe at left tackle, Calvin Anderson at right tackle, Cole Strange’s first game since injuring his knee early in training camp, and Atonio Mafi subbing in for Mike Onwenu during the 4th quarter.

New England’s front should hold up better this time around, with Trent Brown and Mike Onwenu likely manning each tackle spot and Sidy Sow impressing at right guard against the Bills. The offensive line didn’t allow a single unblocked true dropbacks and handled stunts better than we’ve seen in weeks. Jones’ performance against the blitz last week was also his most impressive this season,  going 8-9 for 113 yards and a touchdown against an aggressive Buffalo defense.

He dropped his eyes on one panicky sack but otherwise showed poise and accuracy against extra rushers.

Bourne caught all three of his targets against the blitz, turning one into an explosive gain and another into a low Red Zone touchdown. Demario Douglas was 2nd on the team with two targets on such dropbacks, catching a dig despite being held at the top of his route on 3rd & 1, then getting wide open for what could’ve been a game-winning score near the goal line. Douglas also had a pair of targets against the blitz back in Week 2, showing his elusiveness on a bubble screen and pick play before the infamous fumble that got him benched. Expect each of these emerging YAC threats to make an impact as outlet receivers when Miami brings the heat.

Tackle, Tackle, Tackle

The Patriots missed a season-high 12 tackles last week against the Bills, including both of Josh Allen’s touchdown throws and multiple other conversions.

Most of these whiffs came on passes, where the defense has the 8th-highest missed tackle rate (15%) this season. Ja’Whaun Bentley was the biggest offender, leading the defense with five total misses, but Myles Bryant, Kyle Dugger, and Adrian Phillips each had a pair of their own, as well.

New England has been more sound against the run, where only the Jets have a lower missed tackle rate, but struggled bringing down the Dolphins’ backs in Week 2. Raheem Mostert’s 43-yard touchdown, which nearly sealed the game for Miami, was the most glaring miscue, but there were other positive gains that could’ve been snuffed out with better pursuit angles and tackling.

The Patriots did a better job rallying to the ball against Dolphins receivers, which minimized yardage even when the first defender missed. That’s the style of play they’ll need to bring on Sunday, as the Dolphins rank top-5 in broken tackles on both runs (58, 1st) and receptions (27, t-5th).

All that said, Miami’s offense could be missing its most elusive playmakers on Sunday. Tua Tagovailos let slip that they’ll be getting Tyreek Hill back “somewhere down the line” after the NFL’s YAC leader missed Wednesday’s practice with a hip injury, indicating he might not be available on Sunday. Mostert, who ranks top-5 in broken tackles on runs (26, t-4th) and receptions (11, t-3rd), didn’t participate due to an ankle injury, while speedster Jaylen Waddle was limited with a back injury.

New England’s defense needs to be more consistent regardless of their opponent, but Miami going into the game without any of those players would be a big loss.

Control the Line of Scrimmage

The Patriots’ offense has taken some big steps forward over the past two weeks, but they’re not built to win a shootout. That means hogging time of possession will be critical, and the easiest way to do that is with a strong run game. Luckily, the offense had some success running on the Dolphins in their previous matchup. Most of those came in short yardage, and the Dolphins had their share of wins as well, but having two of their best linemen at tackle combined with an improved ground game should lead to a more consistent product.

New England has recorded positive EPA per play on runs in back-to-back weeks, with the only other such performance coming against Miami. The rushing attack also broke four tackles on the ground in Week 2, their 2nd-most in a game behind the five misses forced last week against Buffalo.

Most of their success against Miami came in short-yardage situations, including a Rhamondre Stevenson touchdown run near the goal line, but Stevenson also showed patience on a pair of inside zone carries and picked up nice gains on outside zone concepts.

The Dolphins’ defense has been bottom-10 in run defense since Week 6 by EPA metrics. While they’ve been competitive, ranking top-10 in stops and allowing just two runs of 10+ yards, only the Raiders have given up more conversions on the ground.

New England ran well early against the Bills, thanks in part to their increased use of motion to move and distract second-level defenders, but didn’t generate as much push in the 2nd half. If the front can put together a more consistent performance and complement its passing attack with efficient carries, the Patriots should be able to keep Tagovailoa and Miami’s passing game cool on the sidelines.