Scouting Report: 3 Keys to a Patriots Road Victory Against the Cowboys

This Sunday, the 1-2 Patriots travel to Dallas looking to even out their record against the 2-1 Cowboys. New England hopes to build on what Trent Brown described as a “grimy” 15-10 road win against the division rival Jets. That game followed the Patriots’ usual script of the defense largely dominating while the offense struggled to score points and finish in the 4th quarter, though in this instance, it was enough to win against the shell of Zach Wilson.

Dallas’ squad will be looking to rebound after a 28-16 upset loss against the Arizona Cardinals, who most predicted would be picking 1st overall in the 2024 draft. Injuries played a significant factor in the Cowboys’ defeat, with star cornerback Trevon Diggs suffering a torn ACL in practice leading up to the game and starting offensive linemen Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, and Tyler Biadasz all being inactive due to injury. Dallas could be without the aforementioned linemen again this week, as well as backup left tackle Chuma Edoga, but they’re still a roster loaded with talent. Bill Belichick showered his upcoming opponents with praise while speaking to reporters on Wednesday, noting they led the NFL with eight players selected to the Pro Bowl last season.

The Cowboys have also done an excellent job protecting and taking away the football this season, leading the NFL with a +5 turnover differential. The Patriots had their first turnover-free performance of the season last week against the Jets but are still tied for 20th in the league with a -2 differential, reflecting both a need to generate more turnovers and continue limiting their own.

New England should be a handful even for the league’s 5th-highest-scoring offense, particularly if Dallas is missing a pair of future Hall of Fame linemen and their starting center. And while Tony Pollard has been one of the league’s most productive rushers this season, the defense showed last week how stout they can be when stopping the run is a priority.

Offensively, the Patriots must take full advantage of the perfect conditions afforded by AT&T Stadium and prove they can generate fireworks after struggling with bad weather in two of their first three games. That won’t be easy against a deep and disruptive Dallas front, but things may be trending in the right direction, with the team’s top-four linemen back and Vederian Lowe seemingly bringing stability to the right tackle spot.

Without further ado, here are my keys to the Patriots upsetting the Cowboys for their second-straight road victory.

1. Contain CeeDee Lamb

The Cowboys have been one of the league’s most explosive passing offenses this season, ranking 8th in EPA/play (explosiveness), but most of that production has come from one player. 2x Pro Bowler CeeDee Lamb is the only Dallas receiver with 20 targets, and he has more than twice as many receiving yards (273) as the next closest player on his team (Michael Gallup, 105). Brandin Cooks is one of the most underrated receivers of the past decade, and Michael Gallup is capable of some phenomenal sideline grabs, but neither has been an attention-grabbing threat so far this season. Dak Prescott has also thrown a lot of quick, short throws this season, with only Anthony Richardson having a shorter average depth of target (6.2; A. Richardson, 4.6) and Prescott’s 2.42-second average time to throw being the 5th-fastest in the NFL (just behind Mac Jones).

So, based on the first few weeks of tape, preventing Lamb from taking over the game seems like the key to slowing down the Cowboys’ aerial attack. But that is much easier said than done, as Bill Belichick acknowledged while reflecting on New England’s last encounter with Dallas two seasons ago.

J.C. Jackson and Jalen Mills weren’t up to the task of defending Lamb back in 2021, but Christian Gonzalez has made a habit of containing star wideouts in the first three games of his career.

Numbers can be deceiving when it comes to coverage, but Gonzalez’s tape backs up his early stat line.

As great as Gonzalez has been, Lamb brings a combination of route proficiency and physicality the rookie hasn’t quite faced this season. While I do think the pre-draft knocks on his toughness were overblown, Gonzalez has struggled in the past against receivers who use strength to win at the top of routes.

Still, Gonzalez’s fluidity, length, and closing speed should keep him competitive as he’s been throughout the early part of the season, which should provide fans with another entertaining matchup and, hopefully, be enough to keep Lamb from putting up another monster performance.

2. Mitigate Micah Parsons’ Impact

The Patriots have a lot of respect for Micah Parsons, as evidenced by the way Patriots players and coaches have spoken about the perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Mac Jones called Parsons “the best player we’ve gone against thus far,” David Andrews said, “he’s got everything you’d want in a defensive player,” and Bill Belichick even compared his rare athletic skill set to the great Lawrence Taylor. The praise has been warranted, as Parsons continues to serve as nightmare fuel for opposing offenses.

Like Taylor, Parsons has uncanny versatility to impact the game from anywhere on the defensive front, and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn does an excellent job moving him, as well as Dallas’ other chess pieces, all over to give offenses different looks.

Though Parsons is primarily known as an unstoppable pass-rushing force, Parsons can be similarly disruptive against the run, recording five tackles for loss or no gain (t-1st among edge defenders) and a forced fumble, which he also recovered. That said, Parsons can also be overly-aggressive and lose track of the play, so misdirection could be an effective tactic.

The Patriots’ offensive line had its best performance of the season against a tough Jets front last week, allowing zero sacks and just three hits. But in fairness, the unit’s slew of injuries set that bar pretty low through the first two weeks, and New York was able to apply pressure on a consistent basis.

If Quinn uses Parsons to exploit Vederian Lowe and Cole Strange, it could be a long day for Mac Jones, who’s been one of the league’s most pressured quarterbacks despite having the 4th-fastest average time to throw at 2.38 seconds.

This doesn’t bode well for New England, as Dallas has excelled at applying quick pressure and did just that the last time these teams met.

On the plus side, the quarterback has been exceptional under pressure this season, though his numbers don’t necessarily reflect his efforts.

Jones has shown a consistent willingness to stand in the pocket and deliver accurate throws with rushers bearing down on him, and that bravery could be a necessity unless the offensive line takes a big leap forward.

I’d expect quick throws, play-action, and a well-calculated run game to be big parts of the plan for Sunday, especially with the Cardinals putting up 222 yards on the ground last week against Dallas. It won’t be enough to stop the apex predator, but if the Patriots execute, it should be enough to keep him from wrecking the game.

3. Capitalize on a Diggs-less Cowboys Defense

The Cowboys entered this season with football’s most dangerous cornerback tandem, acquiring former Patriot Stephon Gilmore to play opposite ballhawk Trevon Diggs. Having two corners that can play on an island allowed Dallas to transition from a zone-centric scheme to the NFL’s most man-heavy defense. Dallas dominated the first two weeks of the season, albeit against lackluster quarterbacks in Daniel Jones and Zach Wilson, by combining a relentless pass rush with tight coverage.

Losing Diggs last week was a big blow to what looked like a potentially historic group, leading to DaRon Bland taking his spot at right cornerback. Despite this shakeup, the Cowboys didn’t change their approach in coverage, and the Cardinals were able to hit underneath throws for first downs and a game-sealing touchdown. Gilmore has also shown that, while he’s as competitive as ever, he isn’t invincible.

The 2x All-Pro has an interception and three forced incompletions while playing man coverage, but only the Chargers’ Michael Davis (six) has allowed more receptions of 15+ yards than Gilmore (four). Repeatedly targeting Glmore may not be a recipe for success, but the Patriots don’t have to completely avoid him if they choose their spots wisely and execute at a high level.

That said, the offense will need to put together their best effort of the season, as Mac Jones has been one of the league’s least efficient passers when facing man defenses this season.

To be fair, only one of Jones’ three games this season didn’t feature a heavy dose of wind and rain, but both Bill Belichick and Bill O’Brien have acknowledged the execution needs to improve. Kendrick Bourne living up to his big play potential would go a long way in achieving this goal.

Jones and his most targeted receiver have had some good moments against 1-on-1 coverage but largely failed to capitalize on opportunities when they’ve presented themselves. If Jones and Bourne can flip that script against Dallas, the Patriots may be able to do the same for their points-depraved offense.