The Patriots sit at 1-5 with hope for 2023 nearing extinction, but last week offered glimpses of optimism for the team’s watchability. The league’s 2nd-lowest scoring team punched in multiple touchdowns for the first time since Week 2, and the run game seems to be finding its stride. Mac Jones’ turnover habit reared its ugly head, resulting in an interception and a dropped pick-six opportunity, but a reliance on the quick game helped New England find a rhythm in the 2nd half.
The Bills have lost two of football’s best defenders in linebacker Matt Milano and cornerback Tre’Davious White, but only the Jaguars have more takeaways, and their front is as a disruptive unit as you’ll find. Still, there are cracks in their armor as Buffalo’s aggressive nature continues to be both its biggest strength and most glaring weakness.
It’s been a similar story for the Bills’ offense, which ranks 3rd in points/game but also bottom-10 in turnovers committed. This presents an interesting opportunity for the Patriots’ defense, which has lived by a bend-but-don’t-break mantra since losing Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon. They’ve managed to keep offenses out of the end zone but struggled to get off the field on 3rd downs. But after snapping a four-game turnover drought against the Raiders, the defense will be looking to steal some opportunities for its offense.
Josh Allen has had the Patriots’ number in recent history, winning his last four matchups against New England, but if Any Given Sunday is to be believed, that streak could be snapped with a strong plan and excellent execution. Here are my key matchups for this Sunday’s matchup against the 4-2 Buffalo Bills.
1. Patriots Offensive Line vs Ed Oliver and the Bills Defensive Front
The Patriots allowed a season-low 18.9% pressure rate last week in a plan that relied heavily on short, quick passes. But Mac Jones was still sacked three times against the Raiders, and New England ranks bottom-10 this season in pressure rate allowed (37.7%, 8th-lowest) and pass block efficiency (78.5, t-6th-lowest).
Right tackle has justifiably been a lightning rod for criticism, but with Mike Onwenu and Cole Strange banged up, Atonio Mafi’s rookie struggles have also been a back-breaker. Despite Mafi being in and out of the lineup and Vederian Lowe not playing in Week 1, each player has allowed the 2nd-most pressures at his position. Both blockers have suffered some quick losses 1-on-1, but Mafi’s also been late to pick up line games throughout the season.
Why I asked: https://t.co/SKv6RpJuQI
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) October 18, 2023
This doesn’t bode well against a Bills pass rush that Bill Belichick called the most disruptive in the NFL. No team has more sacks than Buffalo (22), and their 38.7% pressure rate is the 6th-highest in the NFL. Leonard Floyd’s 6.5 sacks are 5th in the NFL, but fellow edge rushers A.J. Epenesa (16.5% pressure rate) and Greg Rousseau (16.2% pressure rate) have brought the heat despite not reaching the quarterback as often.
AJ Epenesa’s been on a heater the past two weeks
2nd-highest pressure rate among ED (min. 25 pass rush) and his 3 sacks are tied with Leonard Floyd for 3rd-most among ED
Trent Brown’s been good this season, but Epenesa’s bend led to some convincing wins last season https://t.co/wLPuTMbROs pic.twitter.com/WulSDEGoe8
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) October 18, 2023
Epenesa managed to dip around the corner against Trent Brown multiple times in both of their matchups. Rousseau had success against newly re-signed Conor McDermott, who could replace Lowe at right tackle in the near future, and he caught Onwenu off-guard a few times on stunts.
Ed Oliver is tied for 3rd among interior defensive linemen with 4 sacks and ranks 6th in pressure rate (12.4%) among IDL with at least 150 pass rushes. New England’s front kept Oliver quiet last season, holding him to two pressures in two games, but that could change with the unit’s starters banged up.
Whether or not his protection holds up, Mac Jones needs to do a better job of protecting the football than he has recently. His two turnover-worthy plays last week were unacceptable lapses in judgment, and the Bills will capitalize on these opportunities if the quarterback presents them.
If New England’s offensive front is going to have success against Buffalo, running the ball successfully will be a major key. The Bills’ ground defense has been boom or bust this season, making about as many big plays as they’ve allowed.
Meanwhile, the Patriots run game is hitting its stride by leaning on downhill runs behind its massive offensive line.
The offense averaged 4.3+ yards/rush in each game against the Bills last season, leaning on a similar mix of gap and inside zone concepts. If New England can replicate that success, control the clock, and allow the passing fame to take a back seat, they may be able to keep the game competitive enough to squeak out a win (or respectable loss).
2. Patriots Defensive Front vs the Bills Offensive Line
When ranking the Bills’ offensive threats, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs have to be 1A and 1B on the list. But for the first time in Allen’s career, Buffalo is fielding a formidable run game that forces defenses to pick their poison. Only the Eagles and Rams rank higher in EPA/play (explosiveness) and positive EPA rate (consistency) when rushing this season. Jahlani Tavai pointed to the improvement of second-year back James Cook, whose 11 explosive runs are tied for 5th-most among running backs, as a key reason for their ground game’s success.
The Bills' diverse run scheme creates some sizable holes for James Cook, often thanks to rookie guard O'Cyrus Torrence and RT Spencer Brown
But Cook's vision, elusiveness, and burst have allowed him to maximize those openings and rip off a bunch of explosive gains https://t.co/8X43PMsujz pic.twitter.com/XZAMaojPjJ
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) October 18, 2023
The Patriots contained Cook to just two explosive runs in two games last season, but the back averaged 4.6 yards in Week 13 and 5.1 in Week 18, so there is room for improvement.
Journeyman Latavius Murray continues to be one of the league’s most efficient runners, converting on nearly 30% of his carries as a downhill specialist.
New England’s run defense has been one of the league’s best this season despite facing the 3rd-most carries. The unit ranks 1st in positive EPA rate allowed, and only the Jets have a lower missed tackle rate. If they remain stout at the point of attack, take sound angles, and don’t let Cook slip out of their grasp (all easier said than done), it could make the Bills one-dimensional.
Unfortunately, a one-handed Buffalo offense is only slightly less intimidating, especially with New England’s stunning lack of pass rush since losing Matt Judon. The defense’s pressure rate when not blitzing has plummeted from 31.6% in Weeks 1-4 to 16.7% since Week 5. No Patriots defensive lineman has multiple pressures in a game over the past two weeks, and quarterbacks have combined for a 114.9 passer rating when given seconds to throw. Poor gap integrity has also led to scrambles and extended plays.
Patriots fans know first-hand how dangerous Allen can be on scramble drills or when given all day to throw, so the pass rush will need its best showing of the season to keep him somewhat contained. Hopefully, we’ll also see Mack Wilson or Marte Mapu keeping an eye on Allen in obvious pass situations.
3. Patriots Outside Corners vs Stefon Diggs
J.C. Jackson officially stepped into the Patriots’ top corner role last week, leading the group in snaps as the primary boundary player. He’s allowed just 1 catch on 6 downfield targets (10+ air yards) since returning to New England, and that catch was a contested grab by Michael Thomas against off-coverage. Underneath routes have been a bit of an issue, though. Jackson gave up a lot of ground to in-breakers last week, including Jabrill Peppers’ big hit on Davante Adams, and being quick to bail on a curl against Jakobi Meyers led to a 3rd down conversion.
I’ve also noticed a busted coverage in each of the past two games where he seemed to be responsible.
The #Patriots struggled against mesh vs the Raiders, but their first breakdown actually looked like a perfect defensive play call
Based on how Peppers takes Jakobi's shallow cross, I'm guessing JC was supposed to replace and pick up the TE pic.twitter.com/8UOmJDvBbH
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) October 18, 2023
These lapses are understandable as he readjusts to New England’s secondary, but they could be disastrous against a Bills offense that regularly punishes New England for mistakes.
Jackson was more competitive against Stefon Diggs than I remembered in their in 2021 battles. He broke up a pass in two games and held the receiver under 100 yards in each matchup. But he also missed two tackles in one performance and gave up a deep throw after falling for a pump-fake in the Wild Card round. Jackson should see the majority of 1-on-1 reps against Diggs this weekend, so he’ll have to finish plays and stay disciplined to avoid handing over easy conversions.
Jonathan Jones’ status is up in the air after the corner, who missed Weeks 2-4 with an ankle injury, suffered a knee injury against the Raiders. This could mean a high snap count for Shaun Wade, but for now, we’ll think happy thoughts and assume Jones is a go. The veteran corner has mostly been his reliable self since returning in Week 5, and the explosive catch he allowed last week was more of a perfect read and throw than bad coverage. But two moments of shaky tackling from triggered flashbacks to Jones’ rocky Week 13 performance against Diggs last season.
In fairness, Diggs put on a route-running clinic in the game, but Jones didn’t play up to his usual standards. The corner was more competitive in last season’s finale but gave up a deep bomb for a touchdown after biting on a double move. If Jones brings better eye discipline and tightens up his tackling when across from Diggs, we could see a relatively quiet matchup.
Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen are a virtually impossible duo to stop. Their talent, combined with years of refined chemistry, can rip explosive gains from the jaws of perfect coverage. So going into any Bills game, know there will be plays where you just have to tip your cap. It’s possible we see Diggs get extra attention a la Davante Adams last week, but that hasn’t typically been part of the plan against Buffalo, and devoting safety help to one player is a risky proposition with Allen’s arm
Whether or not New England’s plan revolves around specifically eliminating Diggs, whoever lines up against the All-Pro will need consistently sound technique, awareness, and tackling to keep this game close.
