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Patriots Mailbag: Who Should the Pats Want to Play in the First Round of the Playoffs?

The devil you know is better than the devil you don't know.
Evan LazarBy 11 Mins Read

There are nine potential opponents that the Patriots could play in the first round of the NFL playoffs. 

Although the Pats could finish from the top seed to the seventh seed in the AFC, the two most likely Wild Card matchups are the Bills or Bengals. 

Despite the potential to move up with some help, Cincinnati is resting starting quarterback Joe Burrow and others to use the final week of the regular season as a bye week. 

Bengals head coach Zac Taylor’s decision to rest his starters suggests that he’s comfortable falling to the fourth seed and likely playing the Patriots (assuming the Bills beat the Jets).

Even though Taylor and Burrow’s inexperience in the postseason suggests that Bill Belichick would have the upper hand, the matchup for the Patriots’ defense against the Cincy offense is worrisome.

The Bengals feature a deep wide receiver room led by rookie superstar Ja’Marr Chase and Burrow, who is PFF’s highest-graded quarterback, and a do-it-all running back in Joe Mixon. 

Conventional wisdom would suggest Belichick could confuse the second-year Bengals QB by disguising pressure and coverage with post-snap rotations. 

But Cincinnati is an unfamiliar opponent, and Burrow doesn’t make very many mistakes (sixth-lowest turnover-worthy play rate); do you play man or zone? Do you trust J.C. on Chase? Bryant and Mills on Higgins and Boyd? Who takes Mixon? If you play zone, can you stop Mixon on the ground? There are a lot of unknowns.

Instead, it’s best to know your enemy by drawing the Bills on Wild Card weekend. 

By no means are the Bills an easy draw, so before Bills Mafia brings me to the town square for public shaming, there are no cupcakes in this conversation, and Buffalo is a tough out too. 

Having said that, the Bills took back the AFC East last month by playing a near-perfect game against the Patriots and emptying the bag on New England schematically. 

Buffalo played its best cards to dominate the Week 16 matchup, and I’d be confident in Belichick’s ability to adjust in Pats-Bills III to a game plan that puts things back on his terms. 

For starters, New England isn’t going to play as soft defensively as they did in the second matchup in the pass rush and with the Buffalo receivers, turning it into a flag football game.

Belichick would emphasize putting Josh Allen in the Star Wars trash compactor to keep him in the pocket. But dial-up interior pressure, and certainly the Bills’ receivers would be jammed/redirected at the line of scrimmage to throw off the timing of their routes. 

Bills DC Leslie Frazier and Sean McDermott’s game plan of inside leverage, suffocating the check-downs and forcing Mac Jones to complete passes into tight man coverage was excellent. 

But Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has now seen Buffalo’s blueprint, so he’ll have Jones and the Pats’ receivers well prepared to take back the leverage advantage. Plus, New England still ran the ball effectively against the Bills defense at +0.30 EPA per rush. 

The Bills’ coaching staff and quarterback pitched a perfect game against the Pats in Week 16, and my money is on Buffalo failing to do that against Belichick again.

Without further ado, let’s empty the mailbag for the final time in the 2021 regular season: 

Your first question is something I’ve thought about a lot since the second Buffalo game. With Kyle Dugger (hand) ruled out and Myles Bryant (COVID) missing practice this week, Sunday’s finale is a great opportunity to see Joejuan Williams, Shane Wade, or even D’Angelo Ross in a larger role. The Pats hamstrung themselves by deactivating Williams and Wade against the Bills in Week 16, leaving them without backup plans at corner. They had no choice but to leave Myles Bryant on Isaiah McKenzie (Bryant isn’t moving outside). I would like to see a tryout for either Williams or Wade at outside corner in Miami. If they want to get a look at Ross in the slot, I’m good with that too. Whether it’s Tyler Boyd or McKenzie/Beasley next week, they might all be better options in man coverage than Bryant. But if the Pats don’t have another corner to take Bryant off the field, then what? They need to see if they can trust Williams, Wade, or Ross, or this could be a huge problem.

Wilkerson’s speed from the X spot was a breath of fresh air after watching N’Keal Harry plodding up and down the field against Buffalo. But the starting role is Nelson Agholor’s as soon as he returns to the lineup, and something tells me we haven’t seen the last of Harry. Although the coaches sent a message to the former first-rounder by making him inactive versus the Jags, I believe Belichick when he says it’s a week-to-week proposition. If the Pats draw Buffalo and have a run-first script, Harry’s blocking ability points to him having a role in the game. If it’s more of a passing plan, maybe Wilkerson is active. But I’m not seeing him crack the top three when Agholor, Bourne, and Meyers are healthy. 

Another playing time question that’s worth answering. I’m in the camp that believes we need to see more Wino and Uche on passing downs. Although both players have issues holding their gaps and staying in their rush lanes, they need to get the slower linebackers off the field against these pass-happy offenses. The younger EDGEs bring more juice in the pass rush and are far more athletic in space to chase down quarterbacks on the move (no pun intended). If the Pats draw the Bills or even KC, it wouldn’t surprise me if Uche earns a role as a QB spy (with Dugger/Phillips on the tight ends and helping over the top). Buffalo passes the ball more than any other team in neutral situations. There’s no reason for the sledgehammers to be on the field against finesse offenses. 

I’ve written a lot about Mac and the Pats offense lacking a vertical element, but I want to clarify a few things. First, I don’t think the main issue is Mac. I agree that Jones’s arm strength is average under pressure or when he can’t put everything on it. Still, he puts the ball in catchable spots often enough. Second, I’m not someone who subscribes to the theory that offenses need to hit deep shots to be effective. There isn’t much correlation between quarterbacks with high air yard outputs and overall team success. However, I am a subscriber to balance being critical in football, and that’s where my issue with the Pats offense currently lies. If the defense doesn’t need to think about Mac pushing the ball past 20 yards, it makes the offense easier to defend. The same is true for an offense that only goes deep or can’t run the ball. If you can’t throw short, teams will play two-high safeties and keep the top on the defense (ask Seattle). If you can’t run, you’re one-dimensional. The best offenses attack every blade of grass. Do the Pats attack every blade of grass in the passing game? Not yet. 

The short answer is that Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith aren’t Gronk and Hernandez. Not even close. Still, the fact that they only have 80 drop-backs with two tight ends on the field is wild. That’s 27th in the league while paying the Henry-Smith duo a combined $33.6 million this season. My hope is the two tight end package will be unveiled to its fullest potential in the playoffs. Although there are flashes, the two tight end sets just haven’t been that effective so far (19th in EPA per pass play). Maybe McDaniels decided they’re better off using Henry in passing situations and Smith as a run blocker rather than on the field together? If that’s the case, it’s killing their future cap to use Smith as an expensive Dwayne Allen. 

A few weeks ago, I broke down the Patriots’ double dig concept as a third-down/man beater for New England. However, it seems like the Bills were watching tape and saw the same go-to play on third down. So, McDaniels will need to change it up. 

Here’s another concept the Pats ran to get Hunter Henry a single coverage opportunity. The Pats have Meyers in a tight split with Henry in-line and two backs flanking Mac in the backfield. With the Jags in man coverage, the releases out of the backfield pull the linebackers out of the middle of the field, forcing Henry and Meyers’ men to cover them with only a deep safety as help. The deep safety is too far from the stick to factor into the play, and Mac to Henry when he wins his one-on-one for a first down. 

The only way for the defense to drop a robber into the passing lane is to rush four or fewer in the pass rush, which gives Mac and the receivers more time to make a play. 

New England has some effective man-coverage beaters, but the key to their success is keeping the down-and-distance manageable and attacking out-leveraged defenders. 

The number one question of the week gets pushed down the list because let’s enjoy the playoffs before we start talking about the 2022 offseason. With that said, I know you all want my answer, so here we go (disclaimer: this is subject to change as many times as I want): the dream scenario is Chris Godwin in free agency. Godwin would still be dynamic in the slot even with the ACL injury. Forget about Davante Adams. He’s not leaving Green Bay. Mike Williams and Michael Gallup are talented players, but I’m not overpaying them to catch jump balls on the outside. And I’m not sure how much Allen Robinson has left. Everyone else in free agency is a lateral move. Assuming Jameson Williams is off the board, my first-round guy in the draft is Chris Olave. His explosiveness, alignment versatility, and route-running polish remind me of Justin Jefferson. Olave also runs “choice” or option routes at Ohio State that convert downfield based on safety alignment, but occasionally he breaks off leverage, too, so he has experience with route conversions. Olave would be DeVonta Smith 2.0 for Mac. Penn State’s Jahan Dotson (speed, hands) is another strong prospect. Wan’Dale Robinson and John Metchie are solid day-two options. That’s my crush list for now.

There’s a lot to unpack with Ridley’s mental health and where football fits currently in his life. Hopefully, he’s getting the help he needs. He put it all together in 2020 and fits the mold for the Patriots: explosiveness off the line, crafty route running and separation ability, alignment versatility, and big play ability. The Pats were very close to drafting Ridley in 2018 (they took Wynn instead), and he’s nearing the end of his rookie deal. If he’s available via trade and they feel comfortable with where he’s at mentally, it’s a possibility. If I was Atlanta, though, I’d be looking for a first-round pick in return for Ridley. 

My feeling is that they’d go with an outside hire who has experience in the NFL calling plays (and prior history with Belichick). It doesn’t feel like Troy Brown (WRs) or Nick Caley (TEs) are ready to call plays, especially with a younger quarterback. Some names: Bill O’Brien, Chip Kelly, and Steve Sarkisian. Saban recycles offensive coordinator every few years, and O’Brien wants back into the NFL. BOB is interviewing with the Jaguars for their vacant head coaching position, so OC’ing in the NFL might be too low of an offer. Still, if he wants back in the league, a good year or two coaching Mac would spice up his resume. Kelly still hasn’t agreed to an extension at UCLA and is a known Belichick confidant. New England’s passing game has a Kelly influence. Sarkisian is my favorite candidate. He’s currently the best innovator of the bunch, but he probably has too long of a leash to turn Texas around. Still, another sub-.500 season, and you never know. In order of preference: Sark, O’Brien, Kelly. 

It’s fair to start questioning Cam Achord. Achord is a fiery coach with great passion and knowledge about the kicking game. He’s fun to talk to, and you feel like you want to run through the wall for the guy. With that said, the Pats are 21st in special teams DVOA, lead the league in blocked punts against (three), and Jake Bailey is having a down year. The only consistent area on special teams is Nick Folk, a veteran kicker who probably coaches himself for the most part. As we know, the Pats invest a lot in special teams, so there’s no reason for the struggles. How much longer is Joe Judge going to last with the Giants? 

 

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Evan Lazar is the New England Patriots beat reporter for CLNS Media.

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