Patriots Mailbag: is the Belichick-Saban Connection Blocking Bill O’Brien From Returning to Pats?

The final purge from the Patriots’ coaching staff by former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is now complete, with Mick Lombardi and Carmen Bricillo joining McDaniels with the Raiders. 

For players, coaches, and front office personnel alike, the question around Gillette Stadium this week is, what’s Bill Belichick’s next move? The Pats’ head coach always has a plan. 

New England has strong internal candidates in former wide receiver Troy Brown and offensive lineman Billy Yates to fill the voids left by Lombardi and Bricillo by promoting from within. 

But there’s still a strong sense in league circles that there’s another shoe to drop in Foxboro. 

The Pats want to develop former Giants head coach Joe Judge on offense, along with up-and-comers Nick Caley (TEs coach) and Brown. Eventually, that trio could produce the next offensive play-caller and subsequently offensive coordinator once they’ve earned their stripes. 

Still, with a second-year quarterback and offense that’s rebuilding, the overwhelming feeling is that Belichick will eventually pry former offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien out of Alabama. 

Although O’Brien is enjoying his time in Tuscaloosa, the former Texans head coach had his sights on getting back to the Patriots and potentially succeeding Belichick. 

When McDaniels was on track to take the Colts head coaching gig following the 2017 season, many thought that O’Brien tried to get out of Houston to replace McDaniels as the Pats’ OC. 

Instead, the Texans gave O’Brien the general manager title. He was fired a year-and-a-half later, landing as Nick Saban’s offensive coordinator with McDaniels still in New England. 

If O’Brien’s thinking is still the same as in 2018, what is the hold-up? Why isn’t he the Patriots’ OC yet? A move that would surely have all Pats fans breathing a sigh of relief. 

My understanding is that long-time friends and coaching power duo Bill Belichick and Nick Saban have unwritten rules about poaching coaches from each other’s staff. 

A few coaches, such as Judge and new Giants head coach Brian Daboll, have gone back-and-forth. However, it’s usually for a promotion and when there’s a clear replacement. 

Saban recently said he didn’t believe O’Brien was trying to leave Alabama and that he was “looking forward to the challenge” of coordinating the Crimson Tide offense next season. 

The Alabama head coach might not like his in-house options to replace O’Brien as his offensive coordinator, who signed a two-year contract with Alabama in 2021 and wants to keep him. 

Some league personnel believe that Belichick and Saban could come to an agreement, but O’Brien’s future is up to the two best coaches at their respective levels.

Although it appears that O’Brien and the Patriots have mutual interest, the stars haven’t aligned yet. 

Without further ado, let’s empty the mailbag as we head into the 2022 offseason: 

Although the idea is floating around the league, it’s hard to fathom that Belichick would move a defensive coach and a special teams coordinator over to offense and call it a day. Belichick is already very hands-on with Mac. We all know about the Tuesday meetings, and he’s constantly working with the QBs to scout the opponent. I suppose he can always do more. But a Belichick, Patricia, and Judge brain trust running the offense with a second-year quarterback is not a long-term plan. It’s a band-aid. Unfortunately, that might be where they’re at right now.

Whenever someone asks about Hoyer transitioning to a coaching role, my response is why? Why would Hoyer voluntarily agree to more hours in the building for less pay and perks? When he knows he can make the roster as the backup and earn a players’ salary? The veteran minimum for a player with ten-plus seasons under his belt is over $1 million; Hoyer isn’t making anything close to that as a coach. Until there’s no longer a roster spot for Hoyer, a family man who doesn’t want to work 100 hours a week, I don’t see the incentive for him to become a coach. 

My take on what the Patriots should do with Jackson and what will likely happen is different. The expectation is that the Patriots will franchise tag Jackson, work on a long-term extension until the draft, then evaluate draft weekend trade possibilities if they can’t hammer out a deal. The hope is here that they’ll recognize Jackson’s development in their system as he ascends into his prime and pay the man. Belichick paid Stephon Gilmore entering his age 27 season, so it’s not that outlandish if the Pats’ head coach believes Jackson’s best football is still in front of him. From this vantage point, Jackson is still getting better. 

In recent drafts, the Pats have tried to find more athletic front-seven players with Josh Uche, Anfernee Jennings, Chase Winovich, Cameron McGrone, Ronnie Perkins and even Kyle Dugger. Dugger is a hit, and the jury is still out on McGrone after a injury-plagued rookie season, but why haven’t the others found consistent roles? Is it a system fit issue? A player development concern? It’s nice to say they’ll get more speed on the field. However, their recent draft history says they’ve been saying that internally for years and just haven’t found enough of it. The goal is always to add more playmakers on both sides of the ball. Now, they need to find a way to use them effectively. 

It’s a great debate and question. From a team-building standpoint, the best route is always the draft, where you can get a cost-controlled asset on a rookie deal rather than paying top-dollar. However, we all know the Pats have issues evaluating receivers at the top of the draft, and it’s never a sure thing. Even if it’ll cost them, trading for a known commodity is the safer route with a better track record; Diggs, Hopkins, Cooper, etc. I’d take that approach, with Calvin Ridley as my preferred target. I’d say the higher odds are on a veteran acquisition. 

I’ll give you three names at different stages of the draft: Ohio State’s Chris Olave (round one), Alabama’s John Metchie (day two), and Rutgers wideout Bo Melton (day three). Olave is the best route-runner in this class and has excellent initial burst off the line of scrimmage. He knows how to threaten leverage, set up break points in his stems, and snap off routes with great suddenness and zero wasted movements. Unless they address wide receiver in the veteran market, Olave should be a prime candidate at 21. There are obvious ties to Mac Jones with Metchie, who has terrific initial quickness to create early separation. Metchie can also run routes from various alignments, generate big plays on the vertical route tree, and pick up yards after the catch. Melton is a nice day three prospect similar to Buffalo’s Isaiah McKenzie. He flashed better route detail, such as releases against press coverage than McKenzie, while still having gadget player qualities and speed. Those are my top three favorites right now. 

Olave is up there as one of my draft crushes in this class. Since we already talked about him, let’s go defense: CB Andrew Booth Jr. and LB Chad Muma. Booth is an easy first-round evaluation at cornerback. He has superb play speed, recognition and instincts, press-man ability, and ball skills. He’s a terrific prospect who will likely go higher than 21 when he shows out at the combine next month. Muma is one of those day-two linebackers who is a tackling machine. He has good size, range, instincts, and football IQ. He’ll click into blocking schemes quickly and has a nose for the football. The Wyoming product feels like one of those linebacker prospects who will have 100-plus tackles in a season very soon. He’s always around the ball. 

There’s a case to be made for wide receiver, linebacker, and edge defender here. The edge defender depth is outstanding. Top prospects include Aiden Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and George Karlaftis, then mid-first rounders in David Ojabo and Jermaine Johnson. On day two, the edge rusher class goes more than ten deep, and we are probably looking at 14-15 edge rushers in the top 100. Arnold Ebiketie (Penn State), Cameron Thomas (San Diego State), and Josh Paschal (Kentucky) are Patriots fits on day two. 

Good question, and my answer isn’t an excuse for the Patriots. But the most challenging position to effectively project from the college to pro game is wide receiver. The NFL’s route trees, coverages, and cornerback skill levels are all entirely different. For some receivers, their cut-ups against press coverage are very short. Instead, they’re often running through zones with minimal contact searching for openings. Those reps exist in the NFL, too. But there are much fewer of them. Quarterbacks are also tough since it’s hard to evaluate the intangibles. From a pure talent evaluation standpoint, it’s receivers.

I see the Lance haters are taking victory laps already? Noted. There’s zero precedent whatsoever of a first-round quarterback holding the clipboard in his rookie season then developing into a star. Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, who? Maybe give it another year or two with Lance.