Patriots Top Breakout Candidates: Offense

With question marks surrounding the Patriots’ offensive roster and coaching staff, expectations are low for the group in 2024.

Coordinator Alex Van Pelt has never been a primary play-caller, career right tackle Chukwuma Okorafor is manning the blind side, and multiple rookies could be thrust into prominent roles. Oh, and many position coaches also have little to no experience leading NFL players.

There’s plenty of reason to doubt New England, but this rag-tag unit has glimmers of hope if you look hard enough.

Mike Onwenu is among the league’s best downhill blockers and pass-protecting guards. David Andrews, Hunter Henry, and Jacoby Brissett are quality, if unspectacular, starters. And while Kendrick Bourne is an unknown coming off a torn ACL, he’ll bring savviness, strong hands, and energy to the field.

Those veterans should help the offense compete in close games, but a handful of breakout seasons could give them the firepower to challenge defenses.

In this story, I’ll spotlight players who could take a significant step for New England. Breakout candidates will be defined as:

• Established starters with top-10 potential at their position
• Second-year players with quality starter potential
• Backups with quality role-player potential

The list will not include players without an NFL snap under their belt.

Let’s get into it.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson (Starter, 4th season)

Rhamondre Stevenson’s recent extension showed the Patriots think he’s a top-10 running back. The four-year, $36 million deal made him the 6th-highest-paid back by total contract value and the 7th-highest-paid by average annual value and total guaranteed money. Stevenson’s stats justify his reward, as he’s been elite after contact, a consistent chain-mover, and an elite pass-blocker since entering the league.

Despite his resume, the NFL doesn’t seem to value Stevenson as highly as New England. League execs, coaches, and scouts didn’t rank him in the top 10 or honorable mentions of Jeremy Fowler’s running back rankings, though he received at least one vote. This could be tied to Stevenson’s inconsistent role in 2021, criminal overuse in 2022, and/or slow start in 2023. He’s also dealt with some poor blocking over the past two seasons. But there’s reason to believe he’ll ascend the ranks in 2024, starting with a significant scheme shift.

When asked how the run game would look under Van Pelt, Stevenson told reporters, “More outside zone-heavy, not just straight gap schemes. Just more plethora of runs and different schemes to run it out of. … We didn’t run too much outside zone last year.”

In recent years, the Patriots have run an almost exclusively downhill scheme. According to PFF, duo (330) and inside zone (217) were the only concepts they ran more than 150 times since 2021. Thanks to his vision, fancy feet, and elusiveness, Stevenson thrived in the role. But plowing straight into the teeth of defenses is tough on any back.

Conversely, wide zone moves defenses laterally to create cutback lanes, complicating defenders’ gap integrity and tackling angles. Stevenson has experience with the concept from his Oklahoma days, and he’s looked good when running it as a pro.

Added diversity should also benefit the run game, which became stale once Josh McDaniels left for Vegas. Defenses often seemed to know what was coming, allowing them to blow up plays before they could get going. Under Van Pelt, defenses must prepare for more concepts out of multiple looks.

Some factors are outside a back’s control, most notably chemistry and health in the trenches. But Stevenson is doing his part, telling reporters he’s cut fat and added muscle this offseason following a Week 13 high ankle sprain. The play, which is now illegal, marked the first time in Stevenson’s career he missed time due to injury. But he was back at it this spring, participating fully and looking sharp.

Stevenson will be a featured player in Van Pelt’s offense, similar to Nick Chubb. Living up to his extension would help New England control games, take pressure off their revamped passing game, and open up the offense. Antonio Gibson’s dual-threat ability should also prevent the wear-and-tear Stevenson suffered under Matt Patricia.

I smell a career year.

WR DeMario Douglas (Projected starter, 2nd season)

DeMario Douglas’ had one of the best rookie seasons for a Patriots receiver in the Bill Belichick era. His 49 catches were the most for any rookie over that span, and his 561 receiving yards led the team. Douglas also ranked 3rd in yards after catch per reception, trailing only Deebo Samuel and Rashee Rice.

Even more impressive is how much production was left on the field. Douglas was a tough cover no matter who lined up against him, but poor quarterback play, pressure, and some blown calls led to missed opportunities.

Whoever plays quarterback for New England, Douglas is primed for a year two jump. He was the offense’s best player in spring workouts and consistently made plays. He even drew comparisons to Josh Downs, Drake Maye’s top target at UNC.

“Pop reminds me a lot of a guy I played with in college, Josh Downs,” Maye told reporters. “They do a lot of the same things: can’t guard them in a phone booth, they’re twitchy.”

Douglas has a clear path to becoming “the guy” in an unproven Patriots receiving corps, but he has a lot to prove. He missed two weeks last season with a concussion, which is worrisome for a player who lives over the middle. Being a slot receiver is an unforgiving role, so the 5’8″, 192 lber must protect himself when possible and minimize his risk of injury.

Douglas’ route-running was also inconsistent last season. He seemed to drift or run the wrong pattern in several games, leading to miscommunications. Ideally, Van Pelt’s emphasis on chemistry and better coaching from Tyler Hughes and Tiquan Underwood will help him grow in this area.

If Douglas can stay on the field and develop chemistry with one or both of his quarterbacks, there’s little reason to think he won’t emerge as one of the league’s best slot receivers in 2024.

LG Sidy Sow (Projected starter, 2nd season)

Sidy Sow showed a lot of resilience as a rookie.

Sow played out of position all summer, living at right tackle despite being an NFL guard. He moved inside by the season opener but was thrown into the fire against the Eagles. He missed the next two games with a concussion, then rode the bench for another two games. But in Week 6, he filled in for an injured Onwenu and never looked back.

Sow becoming a starter significantly boosted the Patriots’ ground game, as evidenced by Stevenson’s bounceback after he returned to the lineup. Sow’s 71.3 PFF run-blocking grade led all rookie linemen, with much of that success coming as part of a devastating combo with Onwenu.

Sow will be asked to block wide zone, pull, and climb more in Van Pelt’s scheme, but he’s athletic enough to succeed in these roles.

The bigger concern will be pass protection, where he had some rough moments in 1-on-1 matchups. To Sow’s credit, he had an impressive six games with a PFF pass-blocking grade over 70.0, including four after Adrian Klemm left the team for health reasons.

With Cole Strange out for the foreseeable future, Sow took his spot at left guard in spring workouts. Playing next to Okorafor could come with growing pains, but it may ultimately be a better fit.

Sow played left guard for most of his college career. The switch will also provide more margin for error, as left guards tend to get more help from the center. And if Onwenu sticks at right guard, he’s more than capable of handling himself. Still, clever coaches find ways to manufacture tough matchups.

Scott Peters, New England’s fourth offensive line coach in as many seasons, could be the key to unlocking Sow’s potential.

Though Peters has never led his own group, he has an intriguing resume. He played in the league for six seasons, then coached under the legendary Bill Callahan over the past four. He also founded a company centered around line technique and brings a unique jiu-jitsu background to hand-fighting. Peters’ coaching style has already drawn praise from players, and another former player is lending a hand in offensive assistant Robert Kugler.

If Sow remains a difference-making run blocker, the Patriots could be one of the league’s more physical interiors. But to prove he’s a long-term answer at guard, Sow must learn to hold up on an island in protection.

In Peters We Trust.

WR Kayshon Boutte (Near-bottom of the depth chart, 2nd season)

Kayshon Boutte is admittedly a dark horse after appearing in just five games as a rookie. He was benched after failing to make two critical conversions in the opener, but Boutte never established himself on a talent-deprived offense.

Things looked even bleaker for the sixth-round pick when the season ended. In January, Boutte was arrested for illegal online sports gambling, adding to the worrisome off-field resume that caused him to slip in the draft. In April, he was pushed further down the depth chart by Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker.

Fortunately for Boutte, the tides began to shift on the final day of minicamp. He capitalized on Tyquan Thornton’s absence with a monster performance in Red Zone drills, including multiple eye-opening grabs. Maye credited the productive day to Boutte’s reliability in 1-on-1 matchups, while Alex Austin praised his well-rounded skill set.

“[Kayshon’s] a great receiver, man,” Austin said. “He’s somebody who’s a three-level route-runner. He’s not just somebody who’s going to give you an intermediate or a deep-threat route. He can do it all. He’s going to catch the ball at a physical point of attack. So, he’s a great receiver, for sure. Good to compete with because he’s getting me ready for the season.”

Boutte’s outlook took another positive turn when reports surfaced that charges against the receiver had been dropped. The league may levy discipline, but it’s unlikely he will miss more than a handful of games, if any. 

It’s easy to forget Boutte was once considered a 1st-rounder, but the talent is still evident in practices and his limited pro tape.

The LSU product must capitalize on this fresh start and overcome the inconsistency that’s plagued him the past two seasons. If that happens, I expect Boutte to make the roster as an impactful rotational player with the potential for a more prominent role.