Patriots 53-Man Roster Projection 3.0 (Post-Preseason)

With their third preseason game in the books, the new Patriots regime is in for its first round of roster cuts.

Teams must trim their rosters to 53 players by 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday afternoon, which CLNS will be tracking here.

EVP of player personnel Eliot Wolf told reporters the team will be “aggressive” with its third claim spot on the waiver wire, which will be necessary given the roster’s many depth concerns. Offensive tackle, tight end, and defensive line have been hit by injury over the past week, making New England buyers at each spot as teams are forced to make tough decisions.

The Matthew Judon—and potentially Christian Barmore-less pass rush is a glaring concern, particularly due to the edge depth issues. Still, the run defense looks elite, and the secondary should take a step forward with Christian Gonzalez back in the fold. If they can find schematic ways to generate heat, the group should finish back toward the top of the league.

The rookie class has given reason for long-term optimism, but the current group is still a massive unknown. The passing game has yet to find a rhythm under starter Jacoby Brissett, and the offensive line may not be set until a few weeks into the season.

In this projection, I’ll discuss who I believe earned spots on the final roster, who could stay on the practice squad, and whose careers may continue with another team. My final tally was 52 players, which I reserved for a priority waiver claim.

Names in bold indicate changes from my previous projection. Underlined names are players signed since my last projection.

Quarterback (3)

In: Jacoby Brissett, Drake Maye, Joe Milton

Out: Bailey Zappe

Drake Maye has shown tangible progress this summer, both physically and mentally. He’s tying his feet to his eyes more consistently, getting through reads decisively, and playing more aggressively. Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt said Maye has “taken steps forward every single day,” adding, “There has been no regression.” Head coach Jerod Mayo said the rookie is 100% “ready to run a huddle,” and Van Pelt is comfortable with Maye handling the West Coast’s lengthy pre-snap checklist.

“I mean, he puts the work in. That’s one area, I’d check that box off,” Van Pelt said when asked about Maye’s ability to call plays. “You could call a long play with multiple options and cans and multiple snap counts, and he spits it out very easily.”

Patriots fans should be excited about the first-rounder’s growth, but I wouldn’t bank on seeing him before October. Van Pelt told reporters Maye still needs to “understand the issues and have the answers for the issues that arise.”

“That’s the hardest position in sports, is a quarterback,” Van Pelt said when asked about starting a first-year passer. “Especially for a rookie guy coming in and not seeing all the defense they’re going to see in the NFL. It’s tough. It’s hard to transition, and it takes a little bit of time. So I think we’re going to be as patient as we can with that process.”

Van Pelt acknowledged Maye is “pushing” for the top job, and Jacoby Brissett’s status is up in the air after his injury in the preseason finale. But barring something unexpected, there is little doubt the veteran will be New Enland’s week one starter.

“There’s certain things in this offense that Jacoby, having played in this offense, understands some of the tools you can use to get out of certain situations, pressure situations…that Drake is still learning.” Van Pelt said. “Jacoby has tons of experience, not just in the NFL, but in this system. We’ve won games with him in Cleveland…I feel comfortable with his understanding.”

Brissett has been inconsistent this summer, particularly with his deep accuracy and spotty risk-taking. Still, his leadership and processing have stood out, and there’s hope that health and chemistry will lead to better play. But unless he gets hot in September, I predict Brissett puts answers on tape for Maye to learn from, then hands over the reins midway through the season.

Joe Milton’s elite arm strength, mobility, and footwork have flashed this summer, but he’s still a work in progress.

Bailey Zappe has had a solid camp and has taken to the new staff’s coaching. Unless offered a better opportunity, he could bring veteran depth behind Maye and ahead of Joe Milton on the practice squad.

Running Back (3)

Rhamondre Stevenson is locked in as the Patriots’ bell-cow and primed for a career year.

Antonio Gibson will be Stevenson’s top backup and versatile weapon.

Things get more interesting behind them, as change-of-pace backs Kevin Harris and JaMycal Hasty have made cases for the roster. Downhill bruiser Harris has been tough to bring down thanks to improved pad level and burst this summer. Undersized receiving back Hasty has excelled on screens and brings elusiveness as a ball carrier.

Harris has had more positive plays this preseason, including two scores, but Hasty has been a core special teamer since being claimed late in 2023. New England may try stashing one back on the practice squad, where Harris was last season until Stevenson suffered a season-ending injury. Between Harris’ history and Hasty’s special teams value, I’d give the latter the edge.

Terrell Jennings is another prime practice squad candidate. He’s been a physical runner, reliable outlet receiver, and competitive pass blocker. The Florida A&M product could be a hidden gem for the Patriots if he isn’t picked up on waivers.

I had high hopes for Deshaun Fenwick, a solid all-around back at Oregon State. But he is already in his second stint with the team and hasn’t stood out.

Wide Receiver (7)

In: Tyquan Thornton, Ja’Lynn Polk, DeMario Douglas, K.J. Osborn, Jalen Reagor, Javon Baker, Kayshon Boutte

Out: Kawaan Baker, David Wallis, Matt Landers

PUP/IR: Kendrick Bourne, JaQuae Jackson

It’s fair to be skeptical of the Patriots’ receiving corps, which will rely on several inexperienced young players this season. But if this summer is any indication, the position will feature a solid mix of trusty chain-movers, talented projects, and explosive role players. DeMario Douglas, Ja’Lynn Polk, and K.J. Osborn have led the group, serving as reliable targets for whoever is under center.

After an excellent camp, Douglas could emerge as a premier slot receiver in 2024. He’s been the offense’s most consistently dynamic pass catcher, even giving Christian Gonzalez a run for his money in one practice.

Ja’Lynn Polk and K.J. Osborn have rotated as top Z/slot options, but Polk has been the starter at multiple points over the past two weeks. The rookie’s confident hands and high-point skills are constantly on display, even if his downfield production has been limited. He projects as a high-volume target who contributes at all three levels but lives short-intermediate.

Osborn has shown downfield chemistry with Brissett and Maye, overcoming decent explosiveness with crafty routes and sure hands. Receivers coach Tyler Hughes praised the veteran for his versatility, leadership, toughness, and ball skills. He should round out a core of well-rounded, quarterback-friendly options for New England’s quarterbacks.

Things get less certain at the X spot, but the group has plenty of juice vertically and after the catch.

First-stringer Tyquan Thornton deserves credit for being available and coachable this summer. I thought a soft tissue injury before the preseason might land him on IR, but he’s been available since and is impressing coaches. Mayo said Thornton “has all the tools” physically, and Hughes complimented his improved short-intermediate route running and work ethic. The speedster hasn’t been as productive as others, but his big-play potential is evident, and he’s separating more consistently. He also continues to be a physical and underrated blocker. If “Buff Tyquan” can stay on the field and win a respectable number of his one-on-one matchups, New England could field a quietly complimentary group of receivers.

Jalen Reagor has been the top backup at X, and his role as top kick returner would make him a surprise cut. He’s also flashed strong ball skills and could thrive as a role/gadget player in Van Pelt’s scheme.

Javon Baker’s summer screeched to a halt after a strong start to camp, but it’s too early to hit the panic button. The skilled separator has plenty of talent, but he may have to put on more muscle and refine his technique before living outside. If he can catch the ball more consistently, there’s a role for him on game days.

Kayshon Boutte has been inconsistent, but he pops in almost every practice and would be a risk to expose to waivers. He’s also consistently used with core rookies like Maye, Polk, and Baker. With Kendrick Bourne a near-lock to start the season on PUP, I think Boutte’s shown enough to warrant a seventh receiver spot.

David Wallis’ return ability and Matt Landers’ rare measurables make them prime practice squad candidates.

Kawaan Baker was signed to a futures contract in February, but he’s done little of note.

Tight End (3)

In: Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, Jaheim Bell

Out: Mitchell Wilcox, La’Michael Pettway, Jacob Warren

Hunter Henry is expected to be ready for Week 1 after being sidelined in recent weeks with an undisclosed injury. That will be a massive boost to the tight end spot, which has been paper thin without him.

Outside of La’Michael Pettway and Jacob Warren, who are practice squad candidates at best, everyone has been sidelined with injuries.

Austin Hooper recently returned after a brief absence. He brings a Henry-esque frame and catch radius, but he hasn’t finished plays consistently and is still building chemistry with Brissett. Hooper’s been the second-best blocker of the group, but he’s narrowly clearing a pretty low bar.

Jaheim Bell missed the early part of training camp with an injury, which may have translated to inconsistent play. He’s impressive after the catch and solid when blocking on the solid move or at the second level. Unfortunately, he isn’t separating and had some ugly moments blocking in-line. The rookie may be too talented to be exposed to waivers, but he must be used strategically.

Mitchell Wilcox brings the most experience outside Henry and Hooper, but he’s struggled as a receiver and blocker. The tight end-heavy offense should turn to the waiver wire for depth unless they don’t like the options.

Offensive Line (9)

In: David Andrews, Mike Onwenu, Vederian Lowe, Chukwuma Okorafor, Sidy Sow, Layden Robinson, Caedan Wallace, Nick Leverett, Calvin Anderson

Out: Atonio Mafi, Michael Jordan, Kellen Diesch, Zuri Henry, Liam Fornadel, Charles Turner III

IR: Cole Strange, Jake Andrews, Tyrone Wheatley Jr.

Outside of some occasional movement among backups, the line seemed set for weeks with:

LT: Vederian Lowe, Calvin Anderson

LG: Sidy Sow, Michael Jordan

C: David Andrews, Nick Leverett

RG: Mike Onwenu, Layden Robinson

RT: Chukwuma Okorafor, Caedan Wallace

When backups Leverett and Anderson missed time after the Eagles game, coaches began experimenting with radically different groupings, which Onwenu called preparation for a worst-case scenario.

This proved wise thinking from Van Pelt and offensive line coach Scott Peters, who used nearly a dozen line combinations last season with the Browns. When Lowe went down with a minor oblique injury last week after a solid camp, the lineup looked more like:

LT: Chukwuma Okorafor, Kellen Diesch

LG: Sidy Sow, Michael Jordan

C: David Andrews, Nick Leverett

RG: Layden Robinson, Mike Onwenu

RT: Mike Onwenu, Caedan Wallace

Layden Robinson pushed for Sidy Sow’s starting spot after outperforming the second-year guard with an excellent preseason, so his ascension adds up. Sow posted quality tape between some admittedly ugly reps, so he and Robinson should make up a quality interior while Lowe is out.

Onwenu shouldn’t be playing tackle at 6’3″, 350 lbs, particularly since he’s elite inside. However, Caedan Wallace may not be ready to start after a promising, inconsistent summer. I understand putting the career right tackle in the best position to succeed. Onwenu and Robinson could also be elite in the ground game, and Mayo noted the advantage of sandwiching the rookie between two veterans.

Okorafor is a better fit on the left as a run blocker, but there will likely be a dropoff in protection.

Whichever way the top line shakes out, New England’s wealth of guard talent should keep them stable and physical inside. Tackle play will naturally fall off if Lowe and Anderson miss significant time, and Lowe still has plenty to prove, but play-calling and smart quarterback play should help mask the edges.

Leverett’s performance in Washington was unacceptable, but his experience, versatility, and play style make him a virtual lock. Michael Jordan could also make the roster as interior and tackle-eligible depth with Onwenu outside.

Tackles Kellen Diesch and Zuri Henry could be prime practice squad candidates, but Liam Fornadel and Atonio Mafi are on the outside looking in after struggling at center. Former SEC center Charles Turner is an intriguing developmental player, but he was rarely used in the middle despite the offense’s snapping problem. With Jake Andrews on injured reserve, Turner could be crucial depth.

Defensive Line (8)

In: Davon Godchaux, Keion White, Daniel Ekuale, Anfernee Jennings, Deatrich Wise, Joshua Uche, Jeremiah Pharms Jr., Oshane Ximines

Out: Sam Roberts, Trysten Hill, William Bradley-King, John Morgan III, Jotham Russell, Josiah Bronson, Kobe Jones, Christian McCarroll

IR: Christian Barmore

Losing Judon and having Barmore out indefinitely are massive blows. No way around it. Barmore may be the Patriots’ best player, and the team lacks proven outside linebacker depth behind Anfernee Jennings.

Swiss Army knife Keion White admitted he’s trying to get better when lined up outside, and it’s clear on tape he excels when attacking between the tackles. A healthy edge group could mask White’s learning curve, but he may not have that luxury.

Oshane Ximines looks like a lock after a great summer, but he’s been sidelined since the Philly game with an apparent leg injury. Between his absence, Joshua Uche dealing with a lower-leg injury, and Deatrich Wise missing the latest practice, edge rusher looks dangerously thin. New England may turn to the waiver wire if anyone misses significant time, but either way, it’s hard not to worry about their ability to generate pressure consistently. That said, Wise has looked rejuvenated this preseason and could take on a heavier workload when healthy.

Barmore’s presence can’t be replicated inside, but New England should still be a brick wall against the run. Davon Godchaux looks as stout as ever, and Jeremiah Pharms could break out after following up a late-season surge with a monster preseason. Daniel Ekuale rounds out the interior as a well-rounded if physically limited, rotational player. Mike Purcell’s recent release seemed like a show of faith in the trio, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the team searches for depth elsewhere.

Josiah Bronson has made some noise late in games, but depth linemen have yet to stand out this preseason. Trysten Hill’s explosiveness has flashed in practice, which could land him on a practice squad spot, but he isn’t consistent or sturdy enough for the 53. Sam Roberts looks better against the run, but he hasn’t made the plays he usually does this time of year.

Linebacker (4)

In: Ja’Whaun Bentley, Jahlani Tavai, Raekwon McMillan, Christian Elliss

Out: Joe Giles-Harris, Steele Chambers

PUP: Sione Takitaki

Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai still look like one of the league’s best linebacker duos. They’re physical, play fast, and bring criminally underrated versatility. Tavai also told reporters he wants to be more involved in passing situations following his extension.

Raekwon McMillan, who has drawn praise for his value behind the scenes, is a virtual lock after missing last season due to injury. His physicality and versatility have jumped off the tape, and he should pick up where he left off as a core special teamer.

Sione Takitaki should play a key role when healthy, but he’s spent the entire summer on PUP. This opens up a spot for Christian Elliss or Joe Giles-Harris, who have impressed under new position coach Dont’a Hightower.

Elliss was purely a special teamer after being claimed late last season, but he’s made plays as a blitzer and downhill run defender this summer. Giles-Harris has gotten his hands on several passes after spending last season on the practice squad, including a pick in the preseason finale. As long as the head injury he suffered isn’t severe, Elliss’ special teams background might give him the edge to the 53. If Giles-Harris isn’t offered a roster spot elsewhere, he to New England’s practice squad.

Steele Chambers is undersized, but he brings athleticism and open-field tackling ability. He may sneak onto the practice squad.

Cornerback (7)

In: Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, Marcus Jones, Shaun Wade, Marco Wilson, Alex Austin, Isaiah Bolden

Out: Marcellas Dial Jr., Azizi Hearn, Mikey Victor

Christian Gonzalez hasn’t had the lockdown summer most expected, but given his talent and poise, I won’t be worried until it shows up in games.

Jonathan and Marcus Jones seem like the favorites behind Gonzalez, and both have made plays when healthy. Unfortunately, neither can be counted on to start every game after missing time last season and this off-season. Shaun Wade, a top slot backup, has also been in and out of the lineup due to injury.

This uncertain long-term availability makes depth crucial, so Marco Wilson, Alex Austin, and Isaiah Bolden could all stick around. Wilson and Austin have split time opposite Gonzalez when the Joneses’ have missed time, though Wilson seems to have a slight edge. The coaches have also experimented with putting Austin in the slot to test his versatility. Neither has definitively won the job, but both have been competitive, and no one has been bad enough to lose it.

Mayo said Isaiah Bolden “should demon on special teams,” and the second-year player has spent time at Matthew Slater’s old gunner spot. Bolden has also been used in the slot and offers versatility after playing everywhere in Jackson State’s secondary. He’s seen very little time as a returner, where he excelled during his final college season, but hopefully that changes down the road.

Marcellas Dial could sneak onto the roster after shining on special teams and as a tackler this preseason. However, he struggled significantly in coverage and should make the practice squad as a sixth-round pick.

Azizi Hearn has drawn praise for improvement since joining the practice squad last season, but the defensive back was flagged multiple times in the preseason finale. Still, versatility and experience in the system could help Hearn return in a similar capacity.

Mikey Victor is a massive human who could also benefit from time on the practice squad. He’s raw and limited as a mover but offers great length and size.

Safety (5)

In: Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, Jaylinn Hawkins, Brenden Schooler, Dell Pettus

Out: Joshuah Bledsoe, A.J. Thomas

IR: Marte Mapu

Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers look regular season-ready.

Marte Mapu seems destined for IR after missing almost the entire summer, though he could receive a return designation. This has opened the door for others to seize roles, which Jaylinn Hawkins and Pettus have capitalized on.

Hawkins is locked in as the defense’s third safety, bringing experience, versatility, and effort to the safety room.

Pettus has been one of the few standouts in New England’s undrafted rookie class, and Mayo admitted he’s made a case for the roster. He’s physical, willing to do the dirty work, and most importantly, isn’t an error repeater. Pettus has also shown up on top special teams units.

Joshuah Bledsoe likely returns to the practice squad as a “break glass in case of emergency” option. The veteran knows the defense inside and out but lacks the physical ability to be an impact player.

A.J. Thomas is a heady player and consistent tackler, but he hasn’t been as impactful as Pettus. If Thomas isn’t claimed, he could stick around after roster cuts.

Brenden Schooler spent extensive time on defense this offseason, but the standout special teamer won’t see a snap outside of emergencies or blowouts.

Special Teams (3)

In: LS Joe Cardona, P Bryce Baringer, K Joey Slye

Out: K Chad Ryland, LS Tucker Addington

Bryce Baringer may have been the Patriots’ best player this offseason. Watching him send punts into the stratosphere is a treat, and he seems like another candidate for a breakout sophomore season.

The same can’t be said for fellow 2023 pick Chad Ryland, who’s felt like a longshot to make the roster since falling off around the preseason opener. Joey Slye has been far from perfect, but there’s been a clear gap in consistency, even if it isn’t glaring in their final numbers. Ryland could stick around on the practice squad, but he has yet to prove he can be a reliable option in the NFL.

Unless Joe Cardona is dealing with something significant, Tucker Addington is likely one of the team’s first cuts.