Mike Vrabel or Ben Johnson: Who Should Patriots Hire as Next HC?

The Patriots are on the head coach hunt yet again this offseason after firing first-year coach Jerod Mayo.

New England has completed two interviews since Mayo’s firing, bringing in former offensive coordinators Byron Leftwich and Pep Hamilton. Neither is considered a serious candidate after being out of the league since 2022, but there’s a possibility at least one is hired as an offensive assistant.

Several interesting candidates are in this year’s cycle, including former Patriots coach Brian Flores, Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen, and Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. But three candidates clearly stand above the rest, and New England–one of the hottest destinations given their quarterback situation, cap space, and draft capital–seemingly has their eye on them all.

On Wednesday, the team requested an interview with fourth-year Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. The three-time Pro Bowler and former Jets scout has turned a battered Detroit defense into one of the league’s best units. He’s also well-regarded for his leadership qualities.

Though Glenn would be a worthy candidate, his selection would be a bit of a shock given his defensive background and lack of New England ties. Instead, most focus on former Titans head coach Mike Vrabel and Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson.

Vrabel, who is scheduled to meet with the team today, won over half of his games in Tennessee and made the playoffs from 2019 to 2021. His ability to establish a culture, get the most out of players, and run a tight ship would be the perfect panacea to three dysfunctional seasons.

Johnson, who will interview virtually on Friday, leads the NFL’s best offense, and many hope he’ll use that prowess to maximize Drake Maye for the next two decades. Though he’s never run his own team, Johnson is fairly well-connected and could bring a staff of familiar, veteran coaches to guide him early on.

There’s an argument to be made for both Vrabel and Johnson, with both offering strengths and advantages the other lacks. Here’s my breakdown of why each candidate could be a fit, their potential risks, and who I think will ultimately be the Patriots’ next head coach.

MIKE VRABEL

Why He’s a Fit

The safer of the top head coaching candidates, Vrabel brings familiarity and a proven track record of success.

As a Patriot, he won three Super Bowls and was named to the All-2000s, 50th Anniversary, and All-Dynasty teams. As a coach, he’s won NFL Coach of the Year, beat New England in their own house to end Tom Brady’s Patriots career, and turned the Titans into a team few wanted to face for most of his tenure.

Though often associated with Bill Belichick’s coaching tree, Vrabel never coached for his mentor. He spent time at Ohio State, worked under Bill O’Brien in Houston, and consulted for the Browns last season. This blend of organizational comfort and outside experience could make Vrabel a prime candidate to usher in the latest era of Patriots football.

Though Vrabel is similarly tough and demanding of his players, he was known as a player’s coach in Tennessee who had deep bonds with players, staff, and their families. He also fielded a consistently tough, disciplined team that often punched above its weight. Team leaders were shocked by his firing, which was seemingly tied to everything but coaching.

Vrabel’s accolades, experience, connections, and knowledge of the game would bring instant credibility to the Patriots after an unserious three-year stretch. There is also hope that his time in Cleveland–where he was exposed to a more analytically-minded staff and one of the league’s better head coach-general manager duos–will aid his ability to help build a more robust front office and a competent, cohesive coaching staff.

Why He’s a Risk

As a CEO head coach, Vrabel will regularly have to replace successful coordinators, particularly on offense.

Matt LaFleur and Arthur Smith were homerun hires for the Titans’ offense, but both play-callers left for head coaching jobs. Smith was replaced by now-Jets quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator Todd Downing, who was a big whiff both on and off the field. Tennessee lost ten games in his first season and eleven in the second, and the offense was criticized for being vanilla and generally ineffective. Though personnel played a significant factor, this can’t be ignored when discussing Vrabel as a long-term fix.

Vrabel will also want a say in front office as well as coaching staff decisions, which he didn’t have in Tennessee. The head coach never saw eye to eye with Titans general managers Tom Robinson and Ran Carthon, highlighted by the former trading A.J. Brown against Vrabel’s wishes.

Robert Kraft said his next head coach would have the ability to choose his next general manager, which works in Vrabel’s favor. However, the Patriots’ scouting and analytics departments are well behind the rest of the league, and fixing them will be a massive undertaking. Vrabel and whomever he tabs to lead the front office must have a shared, modernized vision to fill holes, add personnel where needed, and get the organization back on track.

BEN JOHNSON

Why He’s a Fit

In a league dominated by young, forward-thinking offensive minds, Johnson is what most teams seek in a modern head coach.

The Lions’ offense has ranked top five in all three of his years as offensive coordinator and play-caller, including leading the league in points this past season. Detroit has had a top-tier line, one of the league’s best receivers, and a smart, accurate quarterback over that span, but Johnson has maximized them with an innovative scheme and one-step-ahead play-calling.

One of Johnson’s earliest influences was Clyde Christensen, a quarterback guru who has coached Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and, more recently, Drake Maye. That isn’t Johnson’s only link to the Patriots’ franchise quarterback, as he also played high school football in North Carolina and walked on as a quarterback at UNC.

Unlike most of today’s top young coordinators, Johnson didn’t come up through the Shahahan or McVay coaching trees. He entered the league as an offensive assistant for Joe Philbin’s. He spent time coaching quarterbacks, tight ends, and wide receivers for the Dolphins before being hired by Matt Patricia’s Lions. There, he rose from an offensive quality control coach to tight ends coach and eventually passing game coordinator.

Johnson’s diverse coaching background and Miami roots set him apart from Mayo, who had only ever known the Patriot Way and lacked the network to build his own staff.

Philbin overlapped with Patriots executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf in Green Bay, making him an ideal assistant head coach candidate It’s also been speculated that former Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo and Saints interim head coach Darren Rizzi, both of whom coached for Philbin’s Dolphins, might join the staff.

If Johnson assembles a staff with enough veteran guardrails to ease his transition, it could quell arguably the greatest concern with hiring him to lead his first team.

Why He’s a Risk

Johnson and Mayo shouldn’t be compared as candidates, as the former is more qualified and connected. Still, hiring another 38-year-old, first-time head coach is a tough sell, especially for someone with no ties to ownership.

The Patriots want to win quickly, and even an accomplished coordinator like Johnson is a gamble. A head coach’s job differs greatly from a coordinator’s, and fans are growing impatient with constant growing pains. If Johnson finds himself in over his head, it could irreparably damage an already battered brand.

VERDICT

The stench of a rotten dynasty still lingers in Foxboro, and many would rather exorcise recent demons with a clean break. Johnson is a no-brainer for that crowd.

Unfortunately for the dreamers out there, Robert Kraft’s self-proclaimed blunder this time last season may force the team towards the sure bet. That is no slight to Vrabel, who would still be an excellent get as a proven, upper-tier coach. And based on recent reports, as what we know about the Krafts’ line of thinking, the Patriots Hall of Famer will likely get the keys to the castle.

Whomever the Patriots choose as their next head coach, all we can hope for is that their process is thorough, open-minded, and unafraid.