Lazar’s Patriots 2022 NFL Draft Big Board: Alabama’s John Metchie Headlines a WR-Heavy Tier Three

With Bill Belichick looking for another monster draft, it’s time for our fourth annual Patriots top-50 big board. 

After a comprehensive deep-dive into the 2022 NFL Draft, these are the best fits for New England in this year’s class, with an eye towards potential selections for the Patriots in the top 100.

As a reminder, we don’t include prospects out of the Patriots’ reach in the first round. For example, you will not see Michigan’s Aiden Hutchinson or Alabama’s Evan Neal here.

Instead, we will focus on realistic targets who fit New England’s mold based on scheme fit, athletic testing, intangibles, and other trends in Bill Belichick’s draft history. 

Over the previous three drafts, the big board has accurately predicted the following Pats draft picks: Mac Jones, Christian Barmore, Josh Uche, N’Keal Harry, Chase Winovich, and Damien Harris.

Ranking: 31-40	Ranking: 41-50
31. LB Leo Chanel, Wisconsin	41. WR Khalil Shakir, Boise State
32. LB Chad Muma, Wyoming	42. OT Daniel Faalele, Minnesota
33. WR Alec Pierce, Cincinnati	43. CB Martin Emerson, Mississippi State
34. DB Jalen Pitre, Baylor	44. DE Josh Paschal, Kentucky
35. OT Tyler Smith, Tulsa	45. LB Channing Tindall, Georgia
36. LB Troy Andersen, Montana St.	46. LB Brandon Smith, Penn State
37. WR Wan’Dale Robnson, Kentucky	47. CB Tariq Woolen, UTSA
38. IOL Jamaree Salyer, Georgia	48. EDGE Nik Bonitto, Oklahoma
39. LB Darrian Beavers, Cincinnati	49. CB Marcus Jones, Houston
40. CB Zyon McCollum, Sam Houston State	50. OL Sean Rhyan, UCLA

Above, are the prospects from our first two tiers that were ranked in the 31-50 range of our big board.

Let’s continue the countdown with our 21-30 tier, which highlights prospects who are projected day two to fringe day-one selections:

30. DL Perrion Winfrey, Oklahoma (Round Grade: 3)

Measurables – HT: 6-3.5, WT: 290lbs, Relative Athletic Score: n/a

As the Most Valuable Player at the Senior Bowl and a former Sooner, Perrion Winfrey is squarely on our radar. In Oklahoma’s defense, Winfrey was an alignment-versatile player, lining up from over the center to a five-technique on the tackles. Along with his flexibility, Winfrey’s initial explosiveness into gaps and lateral mobility to work up and down the line of scrimmage made him a one-man wrecking crew for the Sooners. He doesn’t have the size to post-up inside, winning instead with initial quickness off the snap and lateral mobility. In multiple reviews of the Oklahoma defense for various prospects, Winfrey is everywhere. He’s a very challenging player to block.

29. DT Phidarian Mathis, Alabama (Round Grade: 3)

Measurables – HT: 6-4, WT: 310lbs, Relative Athletic Score: n/a

Adding more length and bulk to the equation than Winfrey, Mathis is a prototypical Patriot who played next to Christian Barmore on Alabama’s defensive line down in Tuscaloosa. Why not reunite the formidable duo in Foxboro? Mathis uses excellent lower-body flexibility and upper-body strength to play with a low center of gravity against the run as a pure two-gapper. He’ll also flash lateral quickness inside to slip around blockers and penetrate gaps, while his pass-rushing toolbox is impressive for an interior defender of his size. The Alabama product has the fluidity and hand technique of a more finesse player but can still reset the line of scrimmage. Mathis and Barmore would give the Pats a long-term base 3-4 defensive end pairing, who can then reduce inside on passing downs. 

28. WR George Pickens, Georgia (Round Grade: 2)

Measurables – HT: 6-3, WT: 195lbs, Relative Athletic Score: 9.36

From everything we’ve heard out of Foxboro, there’s internal support for the Georgia wideout. Pickens has the size-speed combination New England is after on the outside, clocking a 4.47-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3, 195 pounds. However, he has only played 12 games over the last two seasons due to injury and the COVID-shortened season in 2020. Pickens is healthy now, though, and would be in the round one conversation if he had more tape for the national champs. His burst off the line and smooth transitions at the top of his routes stand out the most. Pickens is near the top of this class in terms of threatening CBs with his vertical stems, and he can stop on a dime to create separation after pushing upfield. Plus, Pickens is an ultra-physical run blocker. He is a premier talent who ran into lousy injury luck in Athens (torn ACL at spring practice in 2021).

27. WR Christian Watson, NDSU (Round Grade: 2)

Measurables – HT: 6-4, WT: 208lbs, Relative Athletic Score: 9.96

Watson is a little bit of a project. It’s not that he can’t run routes, but rather that we didn’t see a diverse palate at North Dakota State. Instead, the Bison had Watson stretching the field or using his tremendous speed and explosiveness on schemed touches. The optimistic view is that Watson plays to his 4.36-second 40-yard dash and should present immediate problems as a deep threat. Plus, when you watch him carry the football, you see a fluid athlete that can sink and cut exceptionally well for a player of his stature, suggesting that he has the movement skills to run a more varied route tree. Watson is a loose, explosive mover with tremendous upside. At the very least, he will be a headache for opposing defenses as a field-stretcher and ball carrier. 

26. WR John Metchie, Alabama (Round Grade: 2)

Measurables – HT: 5-11, WT: 187lbs, Relative Athletic Score: n/a

Sometimes we don’t need to overcomplicate things in the draft, and pairing Metchie with his former college quarterback Mac Jones is one of those examples. Metchie caught 55 passes for 916 yards and six touchdowns as a go-to weapon for Jones during Alabama’s run to the national championship in 2020. Then followed that up with 1,142 yards and eight TDs with Bryce Young. The Alabama wideout plays bigger than his size down the field at the catch point, routinely wins one-on-one matchups, makes sudden changes of direction, and shows good instincts as a ball carrier to create big plays on underneath routes. Metchie has arguably the best three-step slant in this class and is good on crossers and slot fades, too. Yes, Metchie tore his ACL in the SEC Championship Game, putting his rookie season in doubt. But reuniting him with Jones would be a wise long-term investment for the Patriots. There was obvious chemistry between Metchie and Jones in the Crimson Tide offense. 

25. WR Jahan Dotson, Penn State (Round Grade: 2)

Measurables – HT: 5-10.5, WT: 178lbs, Relative Athletic Score: 6.31

Dotson might not be everyone’s cup of tea in a draft filled with flavors at wide receiver, but he’s certainly a promising prospect. He’ll likely play as the Z or flanker receiver where he can stay away from press coverage and use his 4.43-speed unimpeded. Dotson’s explosiveness off the line and ability to accelerate through his vertical breaks makes him very difficult to cover in space. He also managed 1,182 yards and 12 touchdowns playing with sub-par quarterback play last season, often making up for inaccurate passes with acrobatic grabs outside his frame. However, he was often bullied by press corners when he was running routes on the perimeter. Dotson is a speed-slot receiver who will give NFL secondaries problems if a creative OC schemes free release for him regularly. His separation ability and strong hands usually translate to the next level.

24. WR Skyy Moore, Western Michigan (Round Grade: 2)

Measurables – HT: 5-9.5, WT: 195lbs, Relative Athletic Score: 7.56

After clocking a 4.41-second 40-yard dash at the combine, Moore’s stock is rising to the point where he might come off the board between New England’s top two selections. Although his agility testing wasn’t as quick, my pro comparison for Moore is still Julian Edelman. The Western Michigan product threatens defensive backs in the initial stages of his routes in his releases and stems, then carries the football after the catch, is reminiscent of Edelman. Moore ran a vertical route tree for the Broncos with three and five-step slants feeding into vertical routes. But he moves like JE11. On film, Moore is also quicker than his timed agility drills suggest. He’s in the conversation for the best route-runner in this class. If the Pats can line up the board to get their hands on Moore, he’d make an immediate impact. 

23. S Lewis Cine, Georgia (Round Grade: 2)

Measurables – HT: 6-2, WT: 199lbs, Relative Athletic Score: 9.92

There is plenty of buzz in league circles that Cine could sneak into the first round after a terrific season for the Bulldogs and an outstanding workout in Indy. Cine combines his excellent athletic profile with an aggressive attitude as a patrolling safety in the middle of the field. He made big-time plays in big moments for Georgia down the stretch, covers grass in a hurry to make open-field tackles, and is not afraid to lay the wood. Cine played more split-safety and match zones for Georgia than as a true centerfielder, but his play speed and field awareness suggests he’d be just fine in that role. He has immediate-starter potential. 

22. CB Kyler Gordon, Washington (Round Grade: 2)

Measurables – HT: 5-11, WT: 194lbs, Relative Athletic Score: 9.69

Although Gordon will be the second Huskie corner to go off the board next week, he’s oozing with cover talent, just like his teammate Trent McDuffie. In some ways, Gordon’s profile suggests that he will be a better playmaker at the next level than McDuffie. He has better length and similarly good closing burst to clamp down at the catch point. But he’s not as refined as McDuffie is as a tackler in the open field, and he has some issues finding the football from with his back to the quarterback. Still, Gordon has the foot quickness, size, and ball skills to develop into a starting outside corner in New England’s scheme. All indications are that Gordon is highly-thought of in Foxboro. 

21. EDGE Boye Mafe, Minnesota (Round Grade: 2)

Measurables – HT: 6-4, WT: 261lbs, Relative Athletic Score: 9.91

With the Patriots searching for potential Kyle Van Noy replacements, Mafe checks the necessary boxes to play Van Noy’s role in their system. The Minnesota product uses a speed-to-power rushes and an effective chop move to dent the pocket, has the girth and playing strength to set the edge against the run, and was very impressive dropping into coverage off the line of scrimmage. Due to an unconventional square stance, Mafe wasn’t presented with many opportunities to turn the corner as a pass rusher and would take false steps out of his two-point stance. As a result, he’ll need some seasoning, and the production might not immediately be there. But Mafe is one of a few edge rushers in this class who fits the KVN mold for the Patriots. 

Relative Athletic Score – each prospect is given a score from zero to ten based on how their athletic testing matches up to those of the same position throughout history.