FOXBOROUGH – The Patriots let a chance to essentially clinch a division title slip through their fingers in a 33-21 loss to the Bills at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.
For the second consecutive week, New England wasn’t good enough in any phase of the game to beat a contending Buffalo Bills operation that out-executed them on both sides of the ball.
“A little bit like last week. Not a lot to say here,” Patriots head coach Bill Belichick said following the loss. “Buffalo made more plays than we did today, played better than we did, coached better than we did. We just didn’t perform well enough to really have a good chance to win the game.”
Assuming the Patriots don’t catch fire again and make a deep playoff run, there will be a time and place for us to discuss a productive first season of the Mac Jones era in Foxborough.
However, now isn’t the time, as Bill Belichick’s team came out flat again and dug themselves into a 13-point deficit that they once again didn’t climb out of on Sunday.
After getting down 20-zip in Indianapolis a week ago, one would think that the Patriots would be fired up to potentially clinch the division and learn from their mistakes against the Colts.
Instead, we saw a team that didn’t look ready to rise to a stiffer level of competition, which is a developing theme for these Patriots.
Digging yourselves into double-digit deficits is not a winning formula. Still, the good teams pull themselves out of the ditch by putting all three phases together to complete late-game comebacks.
“It’s too late in the season to not be playing your best football,” safety Devin McCourty said. “When we need to make a play, we’re not making those plays.”
Although quarterback Mac Jones and the offense needed to start faster, the defense failed yet again to give Jones a chance to complete the comeback: Week 1 vs. Miami, Week 3 vs. Saints, Week 15 vs. Colts, and Week 16 vs. Bills all followed a similar script.
The Patriots desperately need to get out of this rut, and it starts with better starts, but they also can’t seem to put it together in all three phases to capture some late-game magic.
Belichick could turn them around again for a competitive postseason. However, all signs point to the Pats being a year or two away; the great teams don’t always need to play from ahead and are, as Julain Edelman put it this week, “comfortable with the uncomfortable.”
Here are ten things we learned as the Patriots drop to 9-6 on the season:
1. Bills QB Josh Allen Was the Best Player on the Field
Bills quarterback Josh Allen made me eat some crow on Sunday with his best performance to date against Bill Belichick. Allen answered everything Belichick threw at him and avoided negative plays.
The Patriots’ early-down strategy against the Bills offense was to cycle soft zone coverages, mainly quarters and cover-three buzz (late safety rotation into the box). The strategy worked to take away deep shots downfield, with Allen completing only one pass over 20 yards on four attempts, but there was way too much space underneath for Buffalo to stay ahead of the chains.
In all, the Bills added 0.19 expected points per play with a 57% success rate on early downs and Allen’s average depth of target was only 6.6 yards, speaking to his patience against the Pats defense.
Along with taking a profit against zone coverage, Allen extended plays with his legs to avoid the rush and give his receivers time to separate downfield. He had a few successful scrambles as well, but the main issue was him staying alive and finding outlets downfield on the move.
Although it’s frustrating to admit when you get beat, the Patriots have to tip their cap to Allen, who was the best player on the field for either team.
2. Pats QB Mac Jones Starts Slow Again in Loss to Bills
Jones and the entire passing game was dreadful for two-and-a-half quarters. Although Mac is a rookie, a big reason why the division is slipping through their fingers is an inconsistent passing game.
Mac finished Sunday’s loss with a 39.0 QBR and a completion percentage over expected of -13.2. He was outplayed by Allen, which isn’t surprising as Allen is the more experienced QB.
Divvying up the blame pie will take a run through the coaches tape, but it wasn’t a good day for the Pats’ receiver either, who struggled to separate against Buffalo’s secondary.
Still, Jones threw another ill-advised interception with Bills linebacker A.J. Klein dropping into the passing lane on a play-action attempt intended for N’Keal Harry. Klein deflects the ball in the air, and Buffalo safety Micah Hyde is there to catch the pop-up.
Mac made some timely plays in the second half with his legs by rolling out on fourth down and directing Jakobi Meyers into the open space for the Pats to move the chains.
Here, Jones makes a nice touch throw while under pressure to an open Meyers on a whip route for a third-down conversion on a drive that would eventually end in a touchdown.
There will be plenty of criticism of Jones’ inability to carry the Patriots over the finish line in the AFC East. However, there are still positive signs.
3. Pats’ Pass-Catchers Blanketed By Bills’ Stingy Secondary
We’ll need to watch the tape for a final assessment, but the Bills’ secondary blanketed the Pats’ receivers based on our initial viewing.
New England was down starting wideout Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne played but didn’t practice all week, which was a major factor.
The Agholor-for-Harry swap didn’t work out well at all. New England missed Agholor’s speed. Plus, Harry dropped a would-be completion and then was targeted on Jones’ interception on the ensuing play.
Although it’s easy to point the finger at Mac, he can make the downfield throws when they’re there. The Pats’ pass-catchers didn’t create enough opportunities to push the ball downfield.
4. Pats Must Get Henry-Smith Duo Going Before It’s Too Late
Along those same lines, the onus is on offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to find ways to get Henry and Jonnu Smith involved more in the passing game. We can talk about Jonnu’s struggles, and Henry wasn’t as effective getting open this week. But the lack of creativity to design touches, especially for Jonnu, is hurting the team. Something schemed for Smith that gives him a catch-and-run opportunity might get the offense going on an easy completion when Jones is in a slump. These two are taking up too much cap space to be non-factors.
5. Bills WR Isaiah McKenzie Picks On Pats CB Myles Bryant
There’s no sugar-coating what we witnessed in the matchup between McKenzie (11 catches, 125 yards, TD) and Myles Bryant on Sunday. Although McKenzie had some catches against zone, Bryant got beat like a drum in man, and the coaching staff left Bryant out to dry.
The play design that gave the Pats defense the most problems was a short rollout scheme where Allen flowed in the opposite direction of the crosser. There aren’t many QBs with the arm strength to make these throws across the field, but with the middle of the field help reacting to the quarterback moving right, it left Bryant in single coverage with a crossing McKenzie.
McKenzie beat Bryant several times as the inside receiver in bunch formations until the Pats finally adjusted. The Pats were locked into their man coverage matchups, so when Bryant releases outside from an inside starting position, Bryant is out-leveraged and can’t recover.
With third-year corner Joejuan Willaims and rookie Shaun Wade inactive, the Pats didn’t have many options to take Bryant off McKenzie.
Belichick decided to keep Bryant on McKenzie and lived with the consequences.
6. Although Pats CB J.C. Jackson Battled, His Missed Opportunities Cost the Patriots
Unlike others on the Patriots’ defense, Jackson battled with Bills star receiver Stefon Diggs and kept it competitive. Still, the list of missed opportunities were costly: a dropped interception with the score at 26-21, another dropped INT in the end zone earlier, and a missed tackle on Josh Allen on fourth down in the fourth quarter. Jackson wasn’t good enough.
Diggs’ second-quarter touchdown was a good example of a systematic breakdown for the Pats’ secondary. Jackson is man coverage on Diggs with outside leverage, thinking he’ll get inside help from Devin McCourty as the post safety. Unfortunately, McCourty opens to the opposite side, leaving Jackson vulnerable on the arrow/slant route. Sure, Jackson could’ve had tighter coverage, but he’s expecting McCourty to help him.
The takes are rolling in using this performance to challenge Jackson’s status as a big-money cornerback in the offseason. However, he was one of the only Pats’ defenders holding his own.
7. Pats RB Damien Harris Was the Only Consistent Performance on Offense
In the loss, one silver-lining for the Patriots was that they added 0.30 expected points and gained 5.7 yards per rush on their 27 carries.
Pats running back Damien Harris led the way with 103 yards and three touchdown runs, including a 31-yarder.
On Harris’ 31-yard run, the Pats ran a G/TE counter where Shaq Mason pulled to kick out the edge, and Jonnu Smith led the way. The backside pullers allow left tackle Isaiah Wynn to combo up to the second level, springing Harris for the cutback and big play.
Harris’ first touchdown run came on the Pats’ sweep/toss scheme where they fake the jet motion in one direction, then toss it in the other direction, and Harris has lead blockers to escort him into the end zone.
New England’s only consistent offense came on the ground on Sunday, and Harris was the only skill player that consistently made plays.
8. Pats Limit Buffalo to Four-of-Seven in the Red Zone
The Patriots’ defense couldn’t slow down Buffalo’s offense at all between the 20s, but they did get some critical stops in the red zone that kept the game close.
New England made a key stand at the end of the half by pressuring Allen into an incomplete pass. On the fourth-down play above, Christian Barmore uses a push-pull technique to shed right guard Daryl Williams and hurry Allen into a throw behind Sanders.
Here, the Pats had good initial coverage, and Kyle Van Noy eventually breaks through the line to pressure Allen into a throwaway, leading to a field goal.
New England came into the week as the second-best red zone defense in the NFL. Although it’s a moral victory, they again battled with Buffalo’s offense down by the goal line.
9. Pats Offense Goes Five-for-Six on Fourth Down
With a chance to essentially clinch the division, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick finally came out of his conservative shell and allowed the offense to go for it six times on fourth down.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Pats attempted 11 fourth downs in their first 15 games combined, and not all of their fourth-down attempts were late when they were chasing points.
On the first play of the second quarter, New England broke out a speed option design to move the chains on fourth-and-one. When the edge defender commits to Mac, he pitches the ball to Harris, who gains 12 yards and easily picks up the first down.
The aggressive approach from Belichick was a welcomed sight and hopefully a sign of things to come as the stakes rise late in the season.
10. Head Referee Shawn Smith Explains No-Call on Mac Jones
Although the calls that didn’t go the Patriots’ way weren’t why they lost, it was frustrating to see the referees, who typically protect quarterbacks like the secret service protecting President Biden, pick up a flag on a late hit on Mac Jones along the sideline. Following the game, Smith explained ESPN’s Mike Reiss as to why they picked up the flag:
“We had contact on the sideline,” Smith said. “And after discussion, we determined that it was incidental contact that didn’t rise to a level of a personal foul. There was no second act by the defender in that situation, so we determined there was no foul, based on that action.”
