Jayson Tatum isn’t the MVP right now.
ESPN revealed, among likely voters, nobody gave Tatum a first-place vote and only three selected him for second-place. He’s close, fourth ahead of Luka Dončić and behind the big three of Nikola Jokić, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Tatum perennially lives among that top-five since injuries knocked Joel Embiid out of the conversation. But he remains one discernible step behind.
Nights like Saturday in Chicago show Tatum at least on par with anyone deserving consideration — 43 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists marking his third career triple-double and nine threes tying his career-best. The Celtics needed the performance too, trailing early in the second quarter, leading by seven points at halftime and late in the third before scoring 21 of his points and dishing his final three assists into the final frame on a 49-29 run.
He simply doesn’t reach those heights consistently enough. Perhaps by design, but that doesn’t buy you points.
“Anytime you see a guy play like that, you’re fascinated by it,” Joe Mazzulla said. “He did it within the flow of the game. I don’t think he went outside of what we normally do. That’s a testament to him. Just his shot-making, his decision-making and then his ability to rebound, which is great. I thought he controlled the entire game with his poise and decision-making and took what the defense gave him … Because he’s been doing great things for such a long time, I think he gets taken for granted.”
Whatever lack of appreciation Tatum faces in this context stems from his role on Boston leading to inconsistent scoring spikes. Before Saturday, he last scored 43+ points in January and he last surpassed 40 in February. Jokić did the latter six times since then, while Antetokounmpo, Gilgeous-Alexander and Dončić have outscored Tatum, on average, this season.
Scoring isn’t the whole game, but Jokić’s unprecedented statistical output, Dončić’s propensity for triple-doubles, Antetokounmpo’s defensive dominance and Gilgeous-Alexander’s heliocentric role in Oklahoma City have crafted more enticing MVP arguments. Tatum’s edges: winning, a strong defensive reputation and the big one — availability — haven’t broken through.
It’s hard to argue for potential and hockey assists vaulting him to No. 1, though. They firmly place Tatum in the top-five, and separating from Dončić, long an MVP preseason favorite, Donovan Mitchell and Jalen Brunson after an MVP-worthy campaign with New York is a real accomplishment. Tatum’s passing, on-off numbers and the Celtics’ success have all crafted arguments that improve annually.
With more consistent shooting, increased dependency on him as the roster transforms into the future and the kind of breaks inevitably needed to secure such an award going his way, I’m not ruling out Tatum ever winning an MVP. With this incarnation of the team, you might have to accept winning over individual award consideration.
“He’s on a really good team,” Mazzulla said. “I think that hurts him sometimes (in the MVP conversation).”
It’s not easy to accept — even after the biggest trophy affirmed Tatum’s game in June — since the greats have all won MVPs. It’s the only major accolade Tatum has yet to achieve. Kobe Bryant, for all his milestones, only won one when everything broke right. Tim Duncan managed two. Michael Jordan and LeBron James, arguably the two greatest players ever, earned five and four, respectively. That’s the kind of run Jokić is on — one that overwhelms his contemporaries. That luster could wear off before long if Denver fades. Bontemps noted nearly one-third of voters he polled change their mind to Antetokounmpo last week when he won the NBA Cup.
It’s a reminder that it’s not only a long career ahead for Tatum to find his MVP moment. He can also turn it around with 54 games to go with a few elite weeks like Antetokounmpo just had.
“We’re a really, really good team, with so many talented players,” Tatum, who’s expressed a desire to win the MVp as recently as this season, said. “I’m probably not going to put up the same numbers as some of those other guys. That’s perfectly fine with me, especially what we did in June last year.”
Recently, Tatum and the Celtics began managing his knee tendinitis that clearly afflicted his productivity earlier this month. Bumps and bruises have also made the team’s full assortment of players rarely available. The schedule grows more difficult into January and February, which could go either way. Sometimes Tatum and the Celtics play at their best at full awareness against challenging opponents.
So what will it take?
Basketball Reference places Jokić’s odds at 50%, followed by Gilgeous-Alexander at 22% with Tatum in third at 8.2%. Antetokounmpo, who Tatum defeated in all three meetings, sits in fourth at 6.2% and Dončić is conspicuously no longer on pace to reach the 65-game threshold required to maintain eligibility for awards. That’s Tatum’s greatest edge now and into the future — that his rivals will be eliminated by sparse availability.
Tatum’s greatest drawback — however much it helps the Celtics’ other players — is his reliance on the high-variance three point shot. Even with a more concerted effort to attack the basket powering his breakthrough late over the Bulls, he attempted 15 of his 24 shots from deep. He’s averaging 10.7 of his 20.6 field goals behind the line, and while his shooting settled back in around his career average at 37.2% on Saturday, he entered the night at 29.5% to begin December. Surprisingly, Tatum’s usage is on par with his competitors. He gets the ball a lot. So it’s not about opportunity. Both Tatum and Boston’s staff would admit he takes a few heat checks every night.
Tatum, to match his 8-of-11 opening night onslaught, went 0-for-10 at Washington late last month and has nine games below 30% 3PT. Jokić has five and the poor shooting Gilgeous-Alexander has seven. Antetokounmpo has largely given up the three while Dončić logged five nights below 30%, albeit sitting out eight games.
Mazzulla stresses the little things Tatum does, painting him as more than a scorer and it’s true. He screens willingly, rebounds and defends. He’s tied for ninth in defensive win shares and he boasts a +1.2 defensive EPM that ranks in the 90th percentile of the league. Opponents shoot 46.6% against him — a solid mark. Factor in his positional versatility, often starting possessions on centers to set up favorable switches and Tatum is undoubtedly one of the most valuable players in the league.
A trip to the top of the ballot will start with the Celtics reaching the top of the standings. Tatum won’t build an individual output that’ll overpower the competition, so he’ll need the indisputable winning argument. The Cavaliers still lead the east by 2.5 games and Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder have both a half-game edge on the Celtics and 3.0 over the second-place Grizzlies in the grueling west. More offensive explosions like Saturday’s will help too, though efficiency will craft the most compelling argument for his entire season. We know Tatum can be the most valuable player on the floor on any given night. To win MVP, you have to do it on almost every night.
“Sometimes, he’s really coachable and he wants to play the right way and he wants to do the right thing,” Mazzulla said. “He’s constantly fighting that balance of wanting to do what we ask of him. Sometimes, you have to ask him to be himself … there are nights where I can tell he’s in a different groove and you gotta work to give it to him.”
