Jayson Tatum and the Celtics Can Only Beat Themselves in Game 7

MILWAUKEE — Jayson Tatum entered Friday night’s game excited and looking forward to playing again. He relished the chance to save the Celtics’ season and force a Game 7, and much like their setback in Game 3, determined to respond following a lost opportunity.

Instead, Game 5 nearly played out again in the fourth quarter of Game 6. That’s where the Celtics’ heads went too, as Giannis Antetokounmpo put the heat on with a three-point dunk over Payton Pritchard, hitting a pair of free throws and another three-pointer to erase Boston’s 14-point deficit in less then four minutes. Work that took the entire fourth quarter in Game 5. The visuals grew uglier, Boston actually setting up screens to have Antetokounmpo guard their ball-handlers. Disaster ensued.

Grant Williams tried successfully to draw a fifth foul on Antetokounmpo on defense, which got reversed for two more points Giannis points by a Bucks challenge. Tatum missed a layup after maintaining the Celtics’ small lead with a flurry of jumpers, before Wes Matthews ran ahead of him in transition for a wide open three-pointer. Derrick White barely got to foul in transition and nullify a basket that would’ve pulled Milwaukee within four.

“D-White took a smart foul,” Tatum told CLNS Media after. “It’s a very intense game. You want to make every shot you take, especially in those moments. Every shot feels like the one, but that split second, (I’m) frustrated, but (we) regrouped as a team and move on to the next play.”

Tatum had given up similar transition buckets during Boston’s Game 5 collapse. The offense went stagnant, feeding the Buck’ transition game and letting the officiating get in their head. The Celtics had discussed breaking habits all season, trying to not get away from what worked to put them in positive situations. Udoka stared down Tatum from half court as he threw his arms and head down watching Matthews’ shot go up and in. With Boston overcoming its miscues by getting back into its offense, spared when they didn’t by a 39.5% three-point shooting cushion on Friday, it’s easy to imagine the decisive game going differently without the threes if they veer from the system.

Tatum struggled to that point through the entire series, and for the most important seven minutes of the season he became the best player on the floor — scoring 46 points, nine rebounds and four assists, saving the Celtics’ season by shooting 17-for-32 in the 108-95 win.

The Celtics did, running some of their sharpest sets all series with Jaylen Brown screening Smart a path to the basket, collapsing Bobby Portis off White into the paint. Smart found White with a bounce pass in the corner, who swung to Tatum for a three in the left corner. Tatum had shot 39.1% from the field through the first five games of the series, Ime Udoka noticing he needed to get off the ball some and move the ball out of crowds to generate easier looks.

More strong pin down screens from White and Al Horford on the next play cut off Matthews from reaching Brown as he cut from the post to above the break. Tatum posted up Jrue Holiday, commanding Giannis’ continued paint presence in the drop as Smart effectively found Brown wide open from three to his right. The Celtics led by 13 on Smart’s step-back shot over Antetokounmpo, flashing in one sequence the mix of good fortune and habits that allowed them to play another day.

“They started switching a little bit, and we knew it hurt us last game,” Udoka said. “So we wanted to get a little more movement, off-ball action. They’re going to switch certain things on-ball, but we do some different things off-ball and I think it freed us up a little bit to attack there and at the end of the day you’ve got to make some shots against favorable matchups, not settling, and getting other guys involved. (We) did a better job of that tonight.”

The Celtics had less luck trying to challenge Antetokounmpo offensively after he picked up his fourth foul in the third quarter. Trying to force another by attacking him took Boston out of its offense, as did Milwaukee’s switching and the Celtics’ mismatch hunting. It’s always a balance for Boston, their winning run initiated by Tatum pulling and hitting a mid-range two and step-back three from the left wing with the shot clock running out.

As much as Boston’s run came from quality ball movement in a White-and-starters lineup (now +16.4 points per 100 possessions in 36 minutes) proving to be a real challenge for the Bucks to guard, the Celtics also rode difficult shot-making to the finish line. They started the night attempting 10 straight three-pointers, hitting five on the way to an 8-for-15 first quarter that negated Antetokounmpo’s 17-point explosion to start the game. Tatum, who started the series 34% from three, drilled 7-of-15 in the win.

That marks two wins where Boston received uncharacteristically great shooting, and while that’s part of the game plan against a Bucks’ drop defense scheme, it’s a tricky formula entering one game that’ll decide the team’s season. The Celtics will naturally need to adapt in-game to how they’re shooting and how Milwaukee defends them, the final coaching step remaining for Udoka with both sides now completely familiar with each other.

“Even before a Game 7, we all know what each other’s gonna do,” Udoka said on Saturday morning. “It’s not about the plays, it’s about the players and tendencies and all the little things we talked about last game. The transition and offensive rebounding and taking care of the basketball, the things that kind of hurt us in the fourth quarter of Game 5. At this point, we know everything they’re going to do and vice-versa. I do think you can still make adjustments on the fly and keep guys off-balance, so that coaching part of it doesn’t really stop in-game, but it really comes down to who’s going to play well.”

Udoka’s adjustments came down to shaking the Celtics out of stagnancy late in Game 6, calling timeouts throughout the final frame. Mike Budenholzer has stuck with Giannis at the point of attack while sprinkling in some pick-and-rolls with his guards and smaller lineups.

Antetokounmpo inevitably will explode with the season on the line, averaging 40.0 PPG 15.3 RPG 5.3 APG 1.0 SPG and 1.3 BPG over the last four games as he sees different types of defenses from Boston. He’s shooting 38% against Horford in the series, while dominating Brown and Tatum on 24-for-34 shooting. The Celtics have learned to keep him in single coverage as often as possible since he dished 12 assists in Game 1, Boston challenging his teammates to beat them and they haven’t. Aside from spot Holiday baskets on ample attempts, Pat Connaughton threes and Brook Lopez dump-offs, Giannis is on his own. It felt like the Celtics saw an opportunity to trade his twos with their own threes and the math worked going away.

Will Budenholzer get away from Grayson Allen (36.1% FG) after trying to get him going in the pick-and-roll? It’s unlikely given the lack of options in Khris Middleton’s absence, officially ruled out for Game 7 and now missing the entire series. Jevon Carter lost his role early, George Hill has struggled in his minutes and Bobby Portis (38.6%) is shooting just as poorly, with little floor spacing ability. The Celtics know they can give Giannis his 40 and seal up the perimeter elsewhere. Milwaukee is shooting 31% from deep in the series.

The Celtics used that strategy to pile up stops, go on runs and build double digit leads in each of the last three games. They’re the better team in the series by a 630-603 margin. Their defense held the Bucks to 84.4 points per 100 plays in the half court, a staggeringly low number. They’re favorites in Game 7 on their home floor.

Boston will travel to Miami for the east finals on Tuesday if they keep the Bucks out of transition by limiting their turnovers (11.7 per game), offensive rebounds (10.8 per game), stop settling for jumpers (2-for-6 on long twos in the fourth quarter of Game 5) and see the Tatum he’s capable of being as a floor general.

“It’s not about no matchups or who we played previously,” Brown said. “We win as a team, we lose as a team. That’s the end of it. We come out and we play well. We need Jayson to be a big time performer. We need me to be a big time performer down the stretch.”