Optimism Remains on Jaylen Brown Extension at Summer League

LAS VEGAS — The expectation remains that Jaylen Brown and the Celtics will agree on a super max extension that’ll increase the length of his contract to six-years and erase any trade speculation for at least one year. What becomes the mystery ahead of its official signing centers around the terms of the deal.

Brown and Boston’s front office spent the weekend at NBA Summer League ironing out details on a deal that both sides could’ve agreed to at the beginning of July. Brown’s super max contract eligibility triggered in the spring after he made All-NBA Second Team, and while it secured him a massive increase in potential salary, important flexibility exists in writing the terms of a deal that’ll carry significant cap implications into the team’s future.

The Celtics and Brown’s extension will settle close to the roughly $300-million that designated veteran extension allows them to pay him, or 35% of the cap in 2024-25, the first year of the extension. Jayson Tatum secured his super max eligibility, too, with his latest All-NBA appearance, giving the Celtics what the contract originally intended to do — allow teams an advantage in negotiating to keep players they drafted against competitors.

While other extensions like Tyrese Haliburton and Desmond Banes’ finalized when July began, opening the door for Boston to do the same with Brown, those rookie extensions hit the table pretty cut-and-dry. Haliburton can boost his earnings before the deal begins by making All-NBA. Banes’ doesn’t carry that stipulation. The Celtics can similarly tie some of Brown’s salary to incentives, setting up some luxury tax savings though unlikely enough wiggle room regarding the second apron — which the Celtics currently barely reside under.

Brown’s deal, beginning at $50-million if the 2025 cap comes in at $142-million, would barrel the Celtics over what would become the approximately $190-million second apron. With all the contracts currently on the books, Boston falls about $51-million short between 10 players.

That makes it inconceivable that a haircut on his contract would give the Celtics flexibility on that front and a higher salary would increase the chances of trading for a star if the team eventually did move him. Trades become dollar-for-dollar for teams above the second apron under the new collective bargaining agreement.

A lower starting point typically starts negotiations though, and while it’s doubtful Jason Glushon would accept and offer for much less than the full super max, Boston does maintain flexibility to offer a starting salary between 30-35%, an increasing annual salary up to 8%, with room to offer smaller increases and up to a 15% trade bonus. Brown cannot receive a no-trade clause in an extension, only if he’s signed in free agency. The bonus would impact the later years of the deal, since his salary meeting the league max would waive the bonus if he’s traded.

While the most likely contract structure would look like the following, incentives and a lower starting salary could both increase the team’s ability to build the team competitively around Brown and Tatum beyond 2026:

• 2024-25 – $50M
• 2025-26 $54M (8% increase)
• 2026-27 $58M
• 2027-28 $62M
• 2028-29 $66M (player option possibility)

Rudy Gobert (31.4%) did so in his contract extension with super max eligibility. Many more did not. Brown’s current contract, which pays him $31.8-million, includes incentives deemed likely because he made All-NBA last year, played 65 games and made the all-star game. That amounts to $3.3-million included in the cap hit.

His deal also included escalators for making the second round, conference finals and winning a championship. The Celtics avoided the luxury tax in 2022 almost entirely because they didn’t win the title, which would’ve triggered a bonus for Brown. Those same kinds of incentives could save Boston some tax money if the team underperforms, while his guaranteed salary would still give Boston an advantage over other teams.

As a reminder — Brown cannot sign a super max contract with another team. If he left in free agency, he could only earn around $184-million over four years, starting at $43-million. That amounts to more than a $100-million pay cut over what he’d earn by staying in Boston. He could re-sign with his next team, if traded, for close to $250-million, a smaller hit, but that team would need to take him to free agency. The current CBA only allowed for a 140% raise in veteran extensions over that player’s current season earnings. That would start him at $44-million annually, less than he could earn by waiting to re-sign. State taxes could then narrow the gap.

The Celtics do not appear prepared to trade or even shop Brown, though, and his team’s engagement in contract negotiations seem to indicate their intention to remain in Boston for at least one year. Boston cannot trade Brown until one year from the date he signs a new deal, perhaps another reason for the postponed timing on an agreement.

Meanwhile, other reports have indicated an unlikelihood Boston would get involved in the Damian Lillard sweepstakes, which could take months to resolve, Joe Cronin said in Las Vegas. That cuts both ways, as it does not appear likely Boston could land him without including Brown, who Sean Highkin indicated would probably need to go to a third team if a deal did emerge.

If so, the delay on the deal could boil down to luxury tax implications. The new CBA created narrower tax brackets with lesser punishments for the lower ones, and more punitive higher bands. The Celtics sit in the third, just two years short of repeater tax penalties beginning in 2026. They’re $12-million over the tax line, paying over double in tax for each additional million they spend. That becomes triple in 2026 without repeater penalties, and will become a $5.50 tax multiplier for teams at that point.

With Brown and Tatum combining for over $100-million that season, the Celtics project to sit $33-million below the luxury tax between five players before likely Derrick White and Payton Pritchard extensions. That means the Celtics will pay 3-6 times each million they spend beyond those deals, with any potential savings on a Brown extension capable of keeping them below a threshold that would increase those multipliers. For example, if Brown signs for 32% instead of 35%, that’s nearly a whole tax bracket the Celtics could avoid in 2025-26.

That remains unlikely, and while Brown can threaten to reach free agency next summer, the Celtics hold the keys to upward of an additional $100-million in his new deal. Thus — the standoff.

ould playoff incentives become a compromise? Boston wouldn’t mind paying more tax for more playoff wins, while All-NBA incentives would be defined as likely immediately before not hitting the tax sheet if he doesn’t continue to make that team. It’d be a clever way to save a million bucks here or there, and still give Brown the chance to make all the money.

Of course, both sides could and possibly will extend this into the regular season if they can’t agree to terms now, but that rarely happens without the contract question persisting and hanging over the team all year.