How the Patriots Can Possibly Maybe Stun the Bills

The Patriots hit the road again this weekend to take on the Bills, whose 48-42 win in Detroit cemented another playoff berth for the kings of the AFC East.

Following the team’s latest ugly loss, Jerod Mayo’s job security continues to dominate headlines. Though many are calling for change, the head coach is set to return in 2025, and the locker room continues to support him despite a difficult rookie campaign.

“Yeah, it’s his first year,” said fellow first-year Drake Maye. “His first year coaching, being a head coach, it’s a tough challenge… It’s a lot of responsibility. He’s figuring it out, and I think our players, we’re behind him. We’re backing him. We trust the plan he’s got for us, and we trust what he says in the team meeting rooms and all those little sayings that he has. We believe in it, and we’re bought into it. I just think the results are coming.”

Captain Deatrich Wise offered similar support, even comparing Mayo to current Coach of the Year candidate Dan Campbell, whose first season ended with a 3-13-1 record.

“I feel like there’s a lot of coaches [whose] first year isn’t that good, and they go on to do great things,” Wise told reporters. “Just to give an example, the guy from the Lions, his first year wasn’t that good and look where he is now… He’s doing a great job. Always brings high energy. Always does a good job of coaching guys while critiquing them and motivating them at the same, same time… I think he’s doing a solid job. Yes, we want to have more wins. That’s obvious. But at the same, what he is doing, I think will work out in the future.”

Mayo declined to comment when asked about his future, but he had this to say when asked about his coaching style:

“It is different. I think those guys, they go out there and they play hard every day. I’m not trying to offer a consolation prize because it comes down to wins and losses, which we haven’t won many games this year. That’s no secret. I do think the guys go out every single day and practice hard and try to squeeze as much as we can out of those guys to go out there and perform on Sunday.”

That practice effort hasn’t translated to the field since Week 9 in Chicago, but that must change to prevent another embarrassing defeat. The Bills are one of two teams averaging 30 points per game this season, thanks largely to MVP frontrunner Josh Allen. And while head coach Sean McDermott’s defense has given up over 40 points two weeks straight, they rank fifth in takeaways.

The odds may not be in New England’s favor this weekend, but it wouldn’t be the craziest upset the team has pulled off in the past couple of years. So for those who still believe in miracles, here are my keys to the Patriots stunning the Bills in Orchard Park.

(TRY TO) CONTAIN JOSH ALLEN

The Patriots’ defense hasn’t improved much this season, but their rush lane integrity is one of the rare exceptions. After getting gashed early on scrambles by pocket passers, New England has done a solid job on extended plays in recent weeks.

The group will face its third dual threat in as many games on Sunday, but as Mayo told reporters this week, Allen is a different beast.

“Talking about the Bills, it starts with the quarterback,” Mayo explained. “He’s playing at an unbelievable level right now. He’s doing a good job seeing the field, has always been dangerous with both his legs and his arm. I would say, just from watching him, the way he’s seeing the field and going through his reads, and the ability to extend plays and turn to street ball is definitely a problem. It’s going to take all of us on the field to try to slow him down first and foremost.”

Players and coaches have praised Allen’s decision-making this week. The gunslinger’s willingness to take checkdowns and avoid bad windows has turned him into an elite pocket passer, making the only hope of slowing him down a consistent marriage of rush and coverage. But all that will be for naught if the defense can’t keep Allen contained.

“I don’t know how much he weighs, but this is a big human being here,” Mayo said. “There are rules around tackling quarterbacks, but he also can run you over, run around you, and also still maintain being a passer as he gets outside the pocket. Those are just the challenges that he puts on defenses.”

The pass rush must play with impeccable discipline, but even that won’t be enough for an entire game. Plastering receivers will be key to preventing (or minimizing) big plays downfield when things break down. Sound fundamentals from likely spies Jahlani Tavai, Christian Elliss, and likely Brenden Schooler will also be crucial.

Stopping Allen may not be realistic, especially for a defense as banged up and frequently disappointing as New England’s. Still, they can give themselves a fighting chance by not making things easy with mental errors and poor technique.

PLAY WITH IMPROVED EYE DISCIPLINE

Discipline and linebacker play are running themes for this week’s defensive keys. While breaking down coordinator Joe Brady’s offense, Mayo followed his praise for Allen with a shoutout to the rest of the Bills’ backfield.

Buffalo’s running backs lead the position in yards per rush (5.9) and rushing EPA/play (0.162) over the past three weeks. Blocking has much to do with that success, as only the Colts (2.2) are averaging more yards before contact per rush than the Bills (2.0) over that span, but lead back James Cook and backup Ray Davis have also done an excellent job making people miss.

The Patriots’ defense has kept big runs to a minimum in recent games. But they’ve also taken consistent body blows due to some poor awareness and overall execution.

New England’s recent level of play won’t fly in Buffalo, where Brady has maximized his run game with the threat of Allen’s legs and some eye candy.

Arizona didn’t dial up any quarterback runs last week, but Anthony Richardson moved the chains at will in Week 13’s matchup. Anything resembling that performance will lead to a long day for the Patriots’ defense.

Strong gap integrity and eye discipline will be crucial to creating long-yardage situations and preventing Red Zone breakdowns. Unfortunately for the defense, however, the challenge doesn’t stop there.

Veteran Ty Johnson torched the Lions through the air last week, catching five passes for 114 yards and a score.

Tavai and Elliss will share responsibility for both Allen and whoever he shares the backfield with on most man snaps. Elliss has been a pleasant surprise in coverage, but Tavai has been picked on throughout the season. Hybrid Marte Mapu could also see his inactive streak snap in a coverage defender role (though I wouldn’t put money on it).

Frankly, the defense’s recent performances don’t inspire much confidence that they’ll keep this backfield under wraps. But hey, any given Sunday, right?

LET DRAKE MAYE COOK

To be clear, I am not saying the Patriots should abandon their run game.

First, Allen needs to be on the sideline for as long as humanly possible.

Second, Rhamondre Stevenson is coming off one of his best performances, and Antonio Gibson has been excellent in recent weeks. 

Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt has also seemed understandably conservative at times due to spotty protection.

Still, as Maye’s back-to-back fourth-quarter touchdown drives showed, there’s room for more aggression. He exploited man coverage and manipulated zones while getting the ball out quickly, and the use of tempo helped simplify the defense and wear down the pass rush.

Henry also highlighted the importance of a strong start this week before a raucous Bills fanbase.

“I mean, they’re going to have all the energy in the stadium. So, if you can start fast, stay in the game early, I think that’s something we just haven’t been able to do the last few road games. Getting behind the eight ball, not playing good early – teams have kind of gotten up on us a little bit. We’ve got to be able to start fast, especially against this team.”

Fewer self-inflicted errors would go a long way for the offense, but with the potential MVP on the other sideline, it’ll take some Maye magic to stay in this contest. And with just three games left, maximizing the rookie passer’s opportunities in big moments will be invaluable.

By all means, run at the Bills’ leaky interior at will, but maybe shy away from the underneath stuff early and let the kid sling it.