How the Hawks Can Challenge Celtics in Round One of Playoffs

BOSTON — When the Celtics visited the Hawks on Mar. 11, both teams played close to full strength, Boston missing Robert Williams III and Atlanta playing without Bogdan Bogdanović days into the tenure of new head coach Quin Snyder. The Hawks hit six straight shots to begin the game as both teams raced up-and-down the floor tied at 16 through four minutes. Trae Young hit a pair of threes. Jayson Tatum started 4-for-4.

The Celtics lost the opening frame, 38-37, before dominating the second and leading by as many as 16 points before a 9-0 Atlanta push vaulted them back into the game. Key baskets by Jaylen Brown and Derrick White quieted the runs and only allowed the Hawks within five points. Still, the Celtics stumbled defensively, allowing 35 points and 13 assists to Young, 100 shot attempts to the Hawks’ offense and 13 offensive rebounds. Boston won, but two nights later, it lost its worst game of the season to the Rockets to begin a string of letdowns that helped cost the team its No. 1 seed. The Celtics only trailed Milwaukee by 1.5 games to begin that day.

“We respect every opponent we have,” Tatum said this week. “But we also believe in ourselves as every other team in the playoffs probably does at this moment.”

Many will select the Celtics to sweep Atlanta and for good reason. They played some of the most mediocre basketball in NBA history, staying within one game of .500 all year, finishing 41-41 and within one decimal point of a +0.0 net rating. They did improve, offensively, under Snyder though, averaging 115.5 points per 100 possessions (7th), within two points of the Celtics, with Atlanta’s 119.2 since the Snyder hire surpassing Boston.

That’s one of many small shifts in the Hawks’ style that could challenge the Celtics, the others being their increased pressure on the offensive glass, the everlasting threat of Young going to the free throw line and Grant Williams’ late-season struggles opening a hole on the Celtics’ bench. The play of Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu and Saddiq Bey, crucial in the Hawks’ play-in upset over the Heat, will force Boston’s bench to perform. The reserves on both sides played to a 120-114 Celtics victory last Sunday.

“They’re playing a much different style and identity than even when we beat them earlier in the year in their place,” Joe Mazzulla said. “They have the ability to put a lot of pressure on your defense with their talent and the way they play, and so we have to be very detailed, we have to be connected defensively and we have to be organized on the offensive end … (they’re) playing faster, more threes and offensive rebounding. I think it’s understanding where they’re crashing from, understanding their personnel, they’re very deliberate in who crashes … focus on the details, focus on the execution, be the harder-playing team.”

Mazzulla continued to assert the details, managing rebounding, shot totals, fouling and turnovers, areas he knows Snyder will try to manipulate to narrow the talent gap between the Hawks and Celtics. Boston can expose cross-matches, space the floor and defend at levels that leave Atlanta at a disadvantage. If the Celtics show up and play with intensity, they should sweep the Hawks, but Mazzulla knows how important sustaining success remains. Atlanta isn’t a bad enough team to settle and play passive defense against, and slip-ups could extend the series, which as John Zannis wrote, could forecast more consequential lapses against better teams later in the playoffs.

The numbers

The Celtics ranked fifth in assist rate compared to the Hawks’ bottom-five passing offense. Tatum, Brown, Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon juggle ball-handling responsibilities while Young and Dejounte Murray both log 72 possessions per game. The Hawks’ guards both convert 38% of their threes when wide open, but those account for well under 20% of their attempts. Involving Murray, who trails Young by two minutes per game in time of possession continues to challenge Atlanta under Snyder.

The difficult trade-off for the Hawks comes between choosing their large lineup that could struggle to contain Boston’s shooting and floor spacing, or their small-ball units that forego the offensive rebounding advantage they built late in the year. Only Houston posted an offensive rebounding rate higher than the Hawks’ 32.8% since February ended. Atlanta also posted a top-10 turnover rate over that stretch, setting them up to compete in the possession battle with Boston. As Mazzulla mentioned, they also ranked 10th in pace, averaging 103 possessions.

“They’re a tough team, I think they got a lot of athleticism that can bother us,” Brown said. “We gotta come out and handle our business, and be really detailed. They got a lot of energy, they’re hungry, they’re young. I’ve been in that position, being an underdog, being a young team, being young in this league and looking to make a name for yourself, so we’ve gotta be ready to go.”

All those numbers exceed the Celtics’ metrics over the same stretch, though Boston’s second half rest should be considered in assessing how the teams stack up. While the Hawks could compete on the margins, the Celtics dominate them in two of the more important areas — ranking 17th and seventh, respectively, in effective shooting and 24th and first in defense. Boston’s net rating, +9.4, dwarfs a +1.0 Atlanta team under Snyder.

The three-point differential in the series is major hindrance for the Hawks. The Celtics took 13 more three-point shots per game over their final 20 games, while also hitting 37.5%, compared to Atlanta’s 35.1%. Crashing the glass won’t make a dent if the Celtics outshoot the Hawks 54-39 from three as they did in the final regular season game. That’s another reason Atlanta needs to maximize minutes for Bogdanović and Bey and since De’Andre Hunter, John Collins and Capela combine for only 7.7 attempts from deep. Opponents outscored that starting front court by 6.9 points per 100 possessions, while Bogdanovic paired with Bey in second units fared far better.

“For myself, looking at the way that we’ve tried to evolve in terms of an offensive style, seeing that take place here, it’s kind of self-evident,” Snyder said last week, describing the Celtics’ three-point volume. “They’re shooting in a lot of different situations. I think a lot of that’s one, recognition of where those attempts can come from, and then two, giving yourself permission to shoot and permission to miss them, and the whole team feeling that way.”

X-factors

Al Horford: The 44.6% three-point shooter this season will make it virtually impossible for the Hawks to guard if he takes Capela out of the paint or off the floor. Atlanta’s big man forced opponents to shoot 51% defending the paint this year, and made life difficult for Jimmy Butler in the play-in game. He also averaged a double-double and shot 73.1% at the rim and averaged a whopping 3.5 offensive rebounds per game under Snyder. Their stylistic contrasts sets up an intriguing battle at the most contentious position in the series. Robert Williams III could be called into extended action if Horford can’t hold down the boards or guard the Young-Capela pick-and-roll.

Derrick White/Marcus Smart: Their screens set up the mismatches Boston needs to find in this series. Their shooting would tip the scale in a department already stacked against the Hawks. Their defense on Young and Murray could prevent Atlanta from competing in the series at all. Both Atlanta guards shot below 46% from the field to close the season. While White shut off Murray to 3-for-10 shooting in their individual matchups, Young managed to shoot 6-for-12 with seven assists and no turnovers against the likely All-Defense Celtics guard.

Smart largely guarded Young, holding him to 2-for-5 in their possessions that ended in a shot, while Murray missed two shots in the one game they played against each other. Smart said at practice this week he’s closer to 100% health than he’s felt in years, something to watch after he missed time and struggled with ankle, neck and other ailments during the second half of the season — averaging 12.3 PPG, 4.4 APG, 2.3 TOV and shooting 40.4% FG over his final 20 games. At his best, he manipulates the defense, passes and posts-up guards like Young.

“You just make it tough on (Young),” Smart said. “You’re not gonna be able to take away everything. You try to take away the easy ones and make everything he takes and gets as hard as possible.”

Onyeka Okongwu: I don’t understand why the former No. 3 overall pick hasn’t evolved into a more substantial part of a game plan for a team trying to develop a defensive identity. His dominance against Bam Adebayo in the play-in game, blocking three Miami shots on one possession, switchability and 46.8 DFG% all point toward proof he could harden the team’s interior while increasing their flexibility. While Okongwu lacks the rolling, finishing and rebounding ability that’s vaulted Capela ahead of him through three years, this isn’t a series to play it safe. A swing player like Okongwu needs to play, given that he held Brown and Tatum to 1-for-5 shooting inside.

Jalen Johnson: The biggest revelation of the young Snyder era. Atlanta’s new coach committed to the 6-8 power forward who sparingly played as a rookie last year. He closed the season averaging 10.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 3.0 APG, 1.5 SPG and 1.3 BPG while shooting 55.1% over his final six games. Johnson doesn’t bridge the aforementioned shooting gap and his bench mate Okongwu could meet heavy resistance against Williams III.

This spot lines Johnson up against Grant Williams, who did not play on Mar. 11, a coach’s decision. Grant gives up size to Johnson, isn’t a tremendous defensive rebounder and saw his shooting slip to close the year. The Celtics may need to look to Sam Hauser, who shot a blistering 17-for-25 from three against Atlanta this year. It’ll be interesting to see if he can survive in a series where the Hawks will inevitably try to pull him into actions.

Final thoughts:

Brown’s finger injury is something to watch. He didn’t do much with his right hand in the visible portions of Thursday and Friday’s practice, and any hit to his efficiency reduces one of the more overwhelming components of Boston’s offense in recent months. The Celtics will follow the tone Tatum sets in this series. He can find too many mismatches on the Atlanta side to settle for jump shots, even if Capela’s paint presence demands some. His 40.9% FG and 33.3% 3PT marks from the Hawks games in the regular season need improvement. hitting 3-of-10 in the middle quarters on Mar. 11 before a 4-for-7 finish slammed the door. Williams III play late in the year continuing may tilt this series toward a sweep, while the Hawks’ offense will meet more resistance than vice versa. This won’t be a walkthrough series if the Celtics fall asleep at the wheel offensively.

“We’re back to pissed off. We’re happy and we’re smiling here,” Smart said. “We’re getting ready, we’re having fun with it, but Saturday, when we step on that court, you’re not gonna see many smiles.”

Celtics in 5