How Jrue Holiday’s Shooting Struggles Could Impact Celtics Playoff Run

Jrue Holiday’s arrival during the week of training camp cemented the Celtics’ 2024 championship. His ability to take a step back in his role while still hitting threes, making passes and defending multiple positions made Boston’s starting five unguardable. They had no weak links defenses could expose.

That changed into 2024-25 after the Celtics signed him to a four-year extension in April. Holiday’s shooting stats regressed in the first half, he missed time with more rest and management of various injuries before opponents tried taking advantage of what could become the greatest difference between this year’s Boston run and last. The Celtics have a Holiday conundrum that could impact them in the most difficult matchups that’ll determine if they repeat this spring.

Holiday showed he’ll be fine against most opponents with 25 points at Miami on Friday, shooting 10-for-15, his first time breaking 20 since the Grizzlies allowed him to shoot 26 times in a Memphis win. The Celtics started the season 19-4 prior to that loss, looking on track to roll through the season like they did one year ago, but Taylor Jenkins tried the most straightforward path to derailing Boston’s daunting offense. Holiday entered the game shooting 34.3% from three, so why not force him to take the Celtics’ shots? It worked in a 127-121 win.

“It’s a bold strategy,” Joe Mazzulla said that night. “He’s an all-star. He shoots over 40% from three. That’s a risky one and I thought he handled it great.”

Few recreated that masterstroke since, despite Holiday’s struggles continuing at 42.9% from the field and 33.3% from three over 30 games between Boston’s loss to the Grizzlies and their letdown against the Thunder on Wednesday. Then, Oklahoma City used Holiday’s positioning in the corner to manipulate the Celtics’ offense, pinching in defenders from the wings to hinder Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum’s access to the paint. Holiday didn’t receive many opportunities to beat the Thunder early, despite the corner’s availability, and he finished 1-for-7  from the field.

The timing worked out. Boston used their weekend back-to-back to involve Holiday more than they had all season with multiple starters missing. After his season-best outbreak over the Heat, Holiday stepped into a point guard role during the concerning minutes with Brown injured and Tatum off the floor at the start of the fourth quarter in Brooklyn one night later. He fed Neemias Queta with an alley-oop, hit Kristaps Porziņģis in the pocket for a three-point play as the Nets rallied and stepped into his own mid-ranger on the ball to stay ahead by seven points after the Nets hit four threes at the start of the quarter.

Holiday finished the game with 12 assists, tying his most in a Celtics uniform. With Derrick White out, he took over as point guard, and Brooklyn couldn’t ignore him with the ball in his hands.

The Celtics created a problem by relegating Holiday to corner shooter, but Saturday’s win showed they can rectify it with plenty of time for experimentation late in the schedule. Last year, threes made up 47% of his field goal attempts and with fewer opportunities overall, they’re now 55.4%, adding greater variance to his output.

Alongside injuries, likely fatigue from his long postseason and Olympics run, whether Holiday made or missed shots increasingly determined whether he impacted the game offensively. Mazzulla mentioned after the Miami win that he’s much more than that as a player, but it took unique circumstances to return Holiday to a more empowered role.

Talking on 98.5 The Sports Hub’s pregame show, Mazzulla said when asked if he needed to encourage Holiday’s aggression that he instead checks on Holiday and asks if they’re doing enough for him.

The answer to this point in the season has been no.

“I’ve been playing in the league for a long time, so I know it’s there,” Holiday told reporters in Miami. “But playing on this team, they have so much talent, on any given night, anything can happen. So J.B. and K.P. were out, I got a chance to see the ball go in and hopefully I can continue.”

In last week’s Thunder loss, Holiday shot missed all four threes. Despite Oklahoma City allowing the most corner looks per game to opponents this season, Boston attempted one in the first half and didn’t respond to the Thunder defenders leaving their assignments with cuts to the basket. While the Celtics rank 28th in cuts per game due to their desire to keep the paint open, Oklahoma City’s scheme took the paint away regardless.

Boston needed to find different paths to the basket. The drive-and-kick game initially created their threes above the break. That worked, starting 41.7% from three in the first half, but later, their corner shooters weren’t able to make the Thunder pay. More importantly, they didn’t command their respect. That’s what Holiday needs to achieve more than anything, or Payton Pritchard could factor into more minutes in his place.

The Grizzlies’ strategy led to Pritchard closing the game in Holiday’s place. It’s not that they took advantage of a player who can’t shoot. Memphis challenged Holiday’s ability to carry more weight offensively in general, and pulled shot attempts from Brown in the process. Holiday hadn’t taken 26 shots since 2023, and his 17 threes marked his most ever.

Holiday is a career 36.9% marksman and led the league at 60.7% in the corner in 2024. But in a reduced role, he’s down to 27.2% while taking the most shots on the team from that position alongside Horford. Boston didn’t fall into that against the Thunder, but felt the impact of less floor space.

This will only become a problem against the NBA’s best and smartest defenses, ones that can take the paint away with rim protectors like Chet Holmgren, Evan Mobley and Jaren Jackson Jr. alongside perimeter defenders talented enough to hedge and recover. The Thunder’s strategy to abandon the corners made sense as the distance to return and contest shots is less than that above the break, but they also challenged Horford, highlighting the Celtics’ worst percentages this season.

Both players have hit plenty of big shots and attempted high volumes of threes before, so neither left the game rattled. A broken right pinkie mallet finger also didn’t derail Holiday’s shooting. He’s now 35.7% 3PT in five games since returning.

That number’s still far below the 42.9% mark Holiday finished with last season that made the Celtics’ starting five impossible to solve because all five players could beat you. The Nets tried to play away from Holiday on Saturday, too, as the strategy will inevitably spread into the late stages of the season, but Brooklyn played undersized, fouled and couldn’t help enough on a string to slow the Celtics’ offense with it.

The Heat have so few sizable perimeter defenders that Holiday turned to bully-ball to initiate his best night of the season. One night later, the Celtics looked for him early, aware that they could do more to get him going.

“It’s special,” Tatum said in Miami. “I know he’s been dealing with a finger injury and stuff. I know it probably felt good for him to see some shots go in, and other guys were having some tough shooting nights, myself included. That’s what makes us so dynamic when we got somebody like who can pick up the slack and be aggressive and attack mismatches. He’s such a bigger guard. When he’s being aggressive, attacking guys, posting up, we’re just that much better.”

Holiday’s laid-back personality and acceptance of the most sacrifice of any starter on the team aided the championship run immensely, but also positioned him in such a back seat that opponents could begin forgetting about him. This year is different. They’ll need him to assert himself more often when defenses disrespect him.

History shows that they’ll pay eventually over a seven game series, but with his numbers remaining down as the season reaches his conclusion, it’s worth questioning if this is the advantage a better field of contenders could seize upon to knock off the defending champs, or if Holiday has more nights resembling the Pelicans and Bucks versions of himself where he could run the show.

At Brooklyn, for a quarter, that player returned. And he’s again front of mind in the Celtics’ locker room.

“He’ll do whatever it takes,” Mazzulla said in Miami. “Tonight, the ball found him early, I’m glad he was aggressive and was able to build through that. I thought he made some timely plays … and I’m really happy for him, because he does get overlooked at times.”