Final Thoughts and Predictions Entering Celtics vs. Bucks

The Celtics and Bucks tip-off at 1 EST today in a series that could, like Celtics-Bucks last year, essentially become the NBA Finals — with the winner inevitably advancing to win the title.

Confidence is peaking in Celtics world, and rightfully so. Boston enters this series with their dominant starting lineup intact (+24.6 per 100 possessions) following a sweep of the Nets without Robert Williams III. Jaylen Brown seemingly averted a significant hamstring strain. The Bucks will reportedly play without Khris Middleton all series.

Milwaukee shouldn’t be taken lightly though, an obvious point given their championship pedigree. This team found a way to win the east finals without Giannis Antetokounmpo for two games. They have the shooters, will and playmaking through Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday to continue to generate massive scoring nights. With all their shooting, as Ime Udoka noted late this week, there’s a chance the Bucks don’t miss Middleton that much at all on the offensive end outside of crunch time.

Here’s some thoughts entering Game 1, and finally my prediction…

• My first thought entering this series was how the Bucks will defend Jayson Tatum without Middleton. Holiday actually took the brunt of the responsibility during the regular season, guarding Tatum despite giving up five inches and tons of length. That’s probably where the Bucks start given their wing issues. Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen and Wes Matthews have no chance. Bobby Portis could try to play Tatum physically and brings enough size at 6’10”, but could get blown by. Holiday’s disruptiveness at attacking dribblers and forcing turnovers will help. He’s Marcus Smart-like in his versatility, but even Smart gets shot over by guys like Tatum. An immediate worry for the Bucks is Tatum’s hot shooting (41.9% 3PT round one) carrying over against their drop defense and a shorter guard. He could get wide open often.
• How quickly will Mike Budenholzer adjust? The Bucks played ginormous throughout their 4-1 series win over the Bucks, with Brook Lopez, Portis and Antetokounmpo sharing the floor in the front court. While Lopez and Portis can shoot some, they’re the worst on the roster next to the aforementioned Bucks wings. If Milwaukee wants to make this a shooting contest with the Celtics, they’ll need to maximize Allen and Connaughton’s minutes. Lopez’ presence could also make it easier for Robert Williams III to play away from the big man in his roving role. The way the Bucks utilize Lopez, as a catch-and-shoot seven-footer bodes perfectly to Williams III hedging into the lane. He wouldn’t be able to do the same on Antetokounmpo or Portis at the four and five spots. Milwaukee can challenge and stretch Boston’s defense, forcing perimeter players to stay home on shooters and one-on-one defense on Antetokounmpo at the point of attack. He can pick his matchups against the Celtics’ defense.
• The question when Milwaukee goes smaller is how they’ll defend. Holiday can only pick up one of Jaylen Brown or Tatum, leaving Portis or another wing on the Celtics’ second side. Antetokounmpo struggled to defend in the Bucks’ drop this year when Lopez sat, part of their defensive regression to the middle of the league. They do need to account for an aggressive Boston offense some, Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Brown tore the Bucks apart in their meeting earlier this month with dribble penetration, generating 30 assists.
• Both teams face their own crunch time worries. Middleton usually mans the ball and becomes the Bucks’ shot creator in close games late. Antetokounmpo guarding Tatum on-ball late in games feels inevitable. Tatum ascended as a passer in round one, can he do it again with the Bucks selling out to protect the paint?
• The Celtics need to shoot the ball in this series. They gave up threes and shot average themselves in round one. Smart finished 31.3%, Brown 21.1% and White 9.1% from deep against the Nets. Boston leaned on Grant Williams (50%) to get back in games and finish plays, Al Horford (60%) to close and Payton Pritchard (42.9%) quietly mashed the Nets in second halves. Those three could potentially be wide open all series when the Bucks collapse and their ability to convert could make-or-break this series since Milwaukee will almost definitely hit theirs.
• Boston needs to do a better job on the offensive glass. Their 71 DREB% ranked 11th out of 16 teams in the first round. Goran Dragic, Kyrie Irving, Bruce Brown and Nic Claxton tortured the Celtics in spots by snatching back Brooklyn’s misses. They often couldn’t make the Celtics pay, but even mediocre putback production accounts for 1.16 points per possession. That’s better than what teams get initially against the Celtics — who allowed 1.07 points per possession overall in the regular season.
• Antetokounmpo needs to score over 30 points with upwards of 10 assists each night to give the Bucks a chance. A streaky Holiday and spot-up shooters can’t save the team when he goes down. That also makes any bench minutes concerning against a Celtics team that’s been able to score into its second unit. Their shooting will balance out some against Boston’s natural spacing and ball-movement, with Milwaukee’s drop scheme negating the Celtics’ desire to hunt mismatches. The Bucks can’t play with the balance Boston does though, bigger lineups hurting their offense and smaller ones exposing themselves defensively.
• The Celtics, by contrast, can go small, big, play through Tatum, Brown, or Smart. They have Horford, Williams, Williams III and Daniel Theis, if needed, to throw at Antetokounmpo. Brown had success against him in the past too, and Smart can rotate inside. They’re the more versatile team.
• Brown is Boston’s x-factor. As he told me on Saturday, just because there’s a drop in the paint doesn’t mean you can’t attack. He’s thrived in this matchup in the past through an aggressive attacking mindset that can kick the lid off the rim when the Celtics get stagnant. For Milwaukee, Holiday needs to be successful defensively at the point of attack.

Prediction time — 

Bobby Manning: Between Williams III’s return, the dominance we saw that starting lineup play with winning 22-of-25, how well the undermanned Celtics played the Bucks in Milwaukee weeks ago, Tatum and Brown’s connectivity and the defensive personnel on the two sides of this series it feels like the Celtics have the overall edge. Don’t take Antetokounmpo and all that shooting lightly, but Boston should win this series. They won’t make anything easy on Milwaukee. Celtics in 7 

Josue Pavon: Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks will be a challenging opponent for the Celtics. Containing Giannis will be no easy task. However, the Celtics’ defense is equipped with reinforcements, including Robert Williams returning to his starting role.

Williams and Al Horford will be key in slowing down Giannis, who will have a better series against Boston than Kevin Durant, especially considering The Greek Freak’s suffocating defense. However, losing Khris Middleton on both ends of the floor is too big of a loss against this Celtics team.

Pat Connaughton and Grayson Allen will provide plenty of outside shooting for Milwaukee but without its second All-Star, Boston’s dynamic duo in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will lead the Celtics to wrap up their best-of-7 series in five games. Celtics in 5

John Zannis: Injuries matter. It’s what gave me some pause in the Celtics first round series with the Nets. But Robert Williams is back and the Celtics should be fully healthy. The Bucks of course are not.

No Khris Middleton for the series means no offensive closer to assist Giannis but more importantly that removes an important wing defender from the Bucks already surprisingly suspect defense. All league defender Jrue Holiday probably draws Tatum or Brown but that leaves Wes Matthews and/or Grayson Allen trying to chase around the other and that just won’t do.

The Celtics need to take advantage of matchups and the Bucks pick and roll drop coverage to knock down mid range shots and open 3s on kick-outs. I think they will.

Assuming Brown’s hamstring doesn’t knock him out of action I said I wouldn’t pick against a healthy Celtics lineup the rest of the Eastern Conference playoffs and I won’t do it here. With Middleton I woulda gone Celtics in 6. Without him, C’s in 5. Celtics in 5 

Jimmy Toscano: I love the way Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown led the way in round 1 — they seem to be growing up before our eyes. Smart has really embraced his role as the point guard and Al Horford looks ten years younger. With Robert Williams back in the mix, he becomes the difference-maker this series and makes Boston a team that can come out of the East. The loss of Khris Middleton will be too much for a very good Bucks team to overcome, but they’ll put up a fight. Seven games is very possible but think C’s put them away one game early. I’m riding with the hottest team in the league. Celtics in 6

A. Sherrod Blakely: This series will be the ultimate test for both teams, with the Boston Celtics and their highly-regarded defense focused on trying to limit Giannis Antetokounmpo who has had little problem in scoring against the Celtics all season. That being said, the absence of Khris Middleton will be a major factor in close, down-to-the-wire games – a specialty of the Celtics in the playoffs. Celtics in 7