Film Room: Patriots Offense Shows Signs of Life in Dismal Defeat

The Patriots’ 21-17 loss to the Raiders virtually eliminated them from playoff contention this season. Speculation over Bill Belichick’s job security is at an all-time high, particularly after last night’s flurry of flags and self-inflicted mistakes.

But despite New England’s performance in Vegas being far from perfect, it was the best we’ve seen the team in weeks. The offense had its best game of the season by EPA metrics and cracked a 4.0-yard rushing average for the first time this season. Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing touchdown in the 3rd quarter marked the unit’s first score since Pharaoh Brown’s long catch and run back in Week 3.

Defensively, an injury-stricken unit lived up to the classic “bend but don’t break” mantra, allowing just one touchdown despite six Red Zone trips. Jabrill Peppers also ended the defense’s three-game turnover drought with a hit that could be heard from Foxborough.

There will be some difficult big-picture questions on the horizon, and make no mistake, I have no intention of making excuses for this team. But for now, let’s focus on the tales of the tape and see where the Patriots stand heading into a tough matchup against the Bills next Sunday.

Passing Offense Patches Holes with Quick Game

Mac Jones averaged his fastest time to throw (2.20 sec) and shortest average depth of target (5.5 yards) of the season against the Raiders. This was likely due to a combination of Jones’ own struggles, rookies starting at each guard spot, and Vederian Lowe having to hold up against Maxx Crosby.

When Jones got the ball out in under 2.5 seconds, he completed 20 of 25 passes and averaged 7.0 yards/attempt. Kendrick Bourne thrived in these opportunities, catching all ten of his targets while forcing three missed tackles and generating two plays of 15+ yards.

Ezekiel Elliott also had a 75-yard touchdown called back due to a Hunter Henry holding penalty, but Bill Belichick hinted he didn’t agree with the call, saying he wouldn’t have coached his tight end to do anything differently.

Getting the ball out quickly didn’t always work in Jones’ favor, as there was a 3rd down where he seemed to lock onto Henry rather than hitting an open Bourne over the middle.

Jones looked overall skittish when holding the ball for 2.5+ seconds, going 4-9 for 32 yards, throwing an interception, and taking three sacks. His fundamentals collapsed regardless of the protection around him, and Jones’ interception was an example of both the mental and physical lapses that have plagued him this season.

Here, Crosby quickly beats Lowe around the edge, leading to Jones making his first mistake and dropping his eyes to scramble. Rather than throwing the ball away to set up 3rd & 5 or resetting to hit an open Hunter Henry, Jones tries to hit his tight end on the run and throws directly to safety Tre’von Moehrig. This wasn’t Jones’ only turnover-worthy play of the game, as he nearly threw a pick-six after hitting linebacker Robert Spillane in the hands late in the 4th quarter.

Two of Jones’ sacks came on 3rd & longs, with the interior failing to pick up stunts and Crosby overcoming double teams to generate pressure.

Mafi completely overcommits on his block and has no chance of recovering to pick up Adam Butler.

Line games continue to be an issue for the rookie guard, who was also pushed into the quarterback multiple times.

The Raiders had perfectly-timed slot blitzes against RPOs that led to both Jones and Malik Cunningham being taken down.

Despite all of these struggles, Jones gave New England a chance to win on an outstanding deep ball that DeVante Parker couldn’t bring in.

The quick game was effective for the offense, and I’d like to see Bourne continue to get opportunities underneath, but last season showed what a dangerous world that is to live in. That said, Jones’ aversion to pressure and habit of putting the ball in harm’s way makes it tough to trust him on traditional dropbacks consistently.

Reviewing Cunningham and Thornton’s Debuts

Cunningham and Tyquan Thornton’s much-awaited debuts didn’t set off the fireworks many expected. The rookie quarterback/receiver played just six offensive snaps, while Thornton was primarily used as a fill-in.

Cunningham spent most of his time at receiver, serving as a decoy on a failed screen pass and sprinting out wide on Elliott’s touchdown run after starting at quarterback. He also ran a pair of seam routes without being targeted, stumbling on one of them.

Cunningham saw just two snaps at quarterback after being named the top backup, with both resulting in negative gains.

Thornton primarily served as the offense’s Z receiver and motion man, often crossing the field in jet motion. His only catch came on a quick out, but he did draw a hold to convert a 3rd down late in the game.  Thornton saw one deep target on a hard play-action attempt, but Jones’ pass hung up in the air and landed out of bounds.

While I understand Cunningham’s lack of involvement, given his rookie status, Thornton was almost a complete non-factor in a game where receiver help was scarce. Ideally, his targets will pick up as he gets his feet wet in the offense, but this isn’t the time to be hiding your young talent.

Run Game Becoming a Bright Spot

The Patriots’ ground game was one of the offense’s few bright spots in Vegas, with O’Brien leaning more on downhill runs and ditching the outside zone concepts they’ve struggled with. Offensive linemen had trouble sustaining blocks early, but things got rolling in the 2nd half.

Most of their success came while running to the left and/or away from Crosby, generating consistent push up front and using the Raiders’ aggressiveness against them on draw and long trap plays. Trent Brown was a standout with some excellent down blocks, but Crosby did beat him from the backside of two runs. Ezekiel Elliott showed he’s still got the juice to bounce runs, beating cornerback Amik Robertson to the edge on a 1st & 5 conversion.

The run game really shined in short-yardage situations, where New England moved the chains on all six attempts with fewer than two yards needed to convert.

The Raiders loaded up the middle of their front to prevent quarterback sneaks, so O’Brien attacked the perimeter of the defense with a jet sweep, reverse, and toss. Elliott and Rhamondre Stevenson also did a great job finding space on dive plays, with each back scoring touchdowns near the goal line.

With the passing game severely limited due to injuries and Mac Jones’ shaky play, feeding the running backs should be a priority until it proves ineffective. Allowing the offensive linemen to move forward and set the tone would also bring out the best in a unit that features more maulers than athletic specimens.

Pass Rush Problems

According to PFF, a Matthew Judon-less Patriots pass rush, which also lost Keion White early to a head injury, produced a pressure rate below 30% for the second week in a row. Ja’Whaun Bentley, who had a quarterback hit and a hurry against the Raiders, is the only defender to record multiple pressures in a game since Week 4.

Bentley’s hit led to a big 3rd down stop, and Christian Barmore batted two checkdown attempts, but a lack of timely pressure and poor lane integrity has hurt the defense at times. Here’s an example from one of the Raiders’ five explosive passes.

With Vegas facing 3rd & 6, the Patriots show Cover 0 with Bentley and Kyle Dugger mugging inside before dropping into a three-deep zone blitz. Myles Bryant and Jonathan Jones take away Garoppolo’s reads over the middle, but Josh Uche rushes too far upfield and gives the quarterback room to step up and extend the play. This puts Jalen Mills in a tough position as he tries splitting two vertical routes, and the quarterback finds Michael Mayer on a scramble drill.

Jimmy Garoppolo went 9-14 for 110 yards and a touchdown on dropbacks lasting 2.5+ seconds, while Brian Hoyer completed all three such attempts for 73 yards and two big-time throws. The pass defense did a great job forcing Garoppolo to throw short on most dropbacks, but New England’s rush and coverage haven’t been as symbiotic as they were earlier this season.

The defense was more competitive against quick throws. J.C. Jackson, who played a full game as the defense’s top boundary corner, locked up fades, while Jabrill Peppers’ closing speed led to an interception and a pass breakup.

Underneath throws against man coverage presented issues, especially on 3rd down. Jalen Mills was picked twice against mesh concepts, and Jackson was a bit eager to bail against a curl on 3rd & 5.

Overall, the Patriots’ tackling was much improved from recent weeks, and Jackson took a big step forward in his second week back with the team. But I don’t see the pass rush improving anytime soon, especially with Keion White likely out next week with a concussion, and the knee injury that forced Jonathan Jones to leave the game could be another blow to a banged-up defense.