Celtics vs Mavericks NBA Finals Preview and Predictions

The Mavericks felt the depth of the Celtics, the ball flowing across multiple playmakers through quicker sets and slowing down to isolate their stars during others. Boston generated 66 points, four double-figure scoring performances and 10 threes between five different players by halftime. It didn’t matter that Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving combined for 33 points the last time these two teams played.

Dallas, albeit without Daniel Gafford for most of the night (5:57 min.) and in only the eighth game for PJ Washington with his new team, eventually capsized defensively into the third quarter and allowed Jayson Tatum to score 16 points over 12 minutes that put the Mavericks away. Boston punished mismatches while Dallas’ undisciplined help decisions on defense allowed the Celtics to break into some of their more extended passing sequences.

Add four back-breaking Kristaps Porziņģis threes to the mix and Jaylen Brown scoring 25 points while playing far from his best, and Boston ran away with the only game we can pull from to preview the NBA Finals — 138-110.

That happened on Mar. 1 and much has changed since then. The Mavericks honed in on defense with their new-look roster to the point where Dallas led the league in defense over the final 15 games of the regular season while Boston fell to 12th. They’ve settled at seventh (111.1 per 100) and third (108.7) in the playoffs respectively, while the Celtics’ 4.4-point offensive advantage built a staggering gap between themselves (+10.8 net rating) and an admirable +4.1 Mavericks rating that’s ranked fourth among playoff teams.

If Boston plays anywhere close to its ability in this series, it’s difficult to imagine Dallas coming close to winning barring otherworldly Dončić and Irving efforts. Dončić posted one in that March loss, scoring 37 points on 14-for-25 shooting, while Irving struggled in his 10th straight loss to the Celtics with 19 on 9-for-23 field goal attempts. Joe Mazzulla downplayed the need to shut the star duo down, emphasizing margins and giving up the right shots to the Mavs, who missed 15 wide open shots in the March matchup, another factor in its lopsidedness.

“People like to focus on (Dončić and Irving),” Mazzulla said. “They don’t look at the game as a connected game. If those guys play well, then they beat you. They don’t look at your offense, they don’t look at your turnovers, they don’t look at your transition, they don’t look at your second-chance points. They don’t look at your execution on the offensive end. The game is connected. It’s not gonna come down to just one thing. It’s gonna come down to the entire game. What was your transition defense like? Was your transition defense affected by your offensive rebounding spacing, your rim decisions, your turnovers? Did you shoot the ball well? You have to score in order to win. Once you get back in five-on-five, did you take away the necessary tendencies? Did you rebound the basketball? The whole, this series is gonna be about stopping those guys. There is no stopping them. There’s defending them at a high level and there’s playing a complete game, because every part of a game is connected.”

The teams aren’t separated by as much as that game showed, particularly with Porziņģis inevitably playing at less than 100% if he’s available for the Finals at all. He returned to practice on Saturday, an important step as his early screening and isolation of Dončić in the last game proved important in tagging the star with two early fouls then derailing his defense on a night where Boston shot 11-for-15 when guarded by him.

Dončić and Irving, who gave up 8-for-13 that night, have improved their isolation defense, allowing 44.9% and 43.4% shooting to opponents, respectively, in the playoffs. That’ll force Boston to attack them in motion rather than slow isolation.

The Celtics did a good job of that overall in the last meeting, and have produced 1.22 points per possession in the playoffs (3rd). A second-ranked Mavericks transition playoff defense (allowing 1.02 PPP) will test their ability to get there consistently, while Dallas will have to limit its turnovers (13.7 TOV% in playoffs, 12th) to keep Boston in the half court.

Both teams have vulnerabilities there, the Mavericks against isolations (0.98 PPP allowed, 10th) and the Celtics have struggled to stop pick-and-rolls with Al Horford in place of Porziņģis (1.00 PPP vs. ball-handlers, T-14th and 1.19 vs. rollers, T-12th). Dončić and his running-mates Dereck Lively II, Gafford and Washington run one of the most prolific lob games in recent basketball history while getting up tons of threes. Mazzulla has alluded to the recent slip-ups against rollers being partially intentional, trying to limit threes.

“You just gotta be very aware of what you’re willing to live with and what you’re willing to take away,” Mazzulla said. “And when it’s time to adjust. There’s not one coverage, there’s not one player. It’s gonna take multiple coverages, it’s gonna take multiple players, it’s gonna take a team effort … and how those things change over the course of the game. Your defense is connected to your offense and vice-versa. So if you’re having empty possessions on the offensive end, giving up transition, giving up offensive rebounds, there’s no half court adjustment. If you’re managing the game properly with your offensive execution, getting back in transition and holding them to one shot, then your adjustments are different. You just have to have an understanding of how the game is going.”

The Pacers ultimately shot 68.4% at the rim, 57.7% from mid-range and 33.9% from three, attempting 28.8 threes per game in the east finals while averaging 32.9 for the playoffs. They attempted more than two fewer shots per game at the basket and four more mid-rangers than usual, culminating in a fourth quarter in Game 4 where Indiana didn’t hit a three. Dallas shot 26.5% from deep against Boston in their last game, with 34 attempts tied for their 15th-fewest in the regular season (avg: 39.5).

The Celtics showed a balance, particularly in their double-big looks, playing away from Washington with Porziņģis while Horford more often switched the pick-and-roll. Utilizing significant Xavier Tillman Sr. minutes showed Boston’s commitment to that alignment and need to have size on the floor. Dončić shot 9-for-11 against Derrick White and 5-for-8 against Jrue Holiday, but Horford managed to hold Dončić to 3-for-10 on the switches with Porziņģis close by to help. Boston has dared shooters like Washington to beat them before, and while he’s capable (36.3% 3PT POs, 41.2% corner), you have to live with something against Dallas.

“The whole thing about defense, matchups and coverages is understanding that NBA offenses are high-powered offenses,” Mazzulla said. “The average NBA offense has a specific points per shot and a specific points per possessions. You have to delineate everything toward creating the lowest possible points per shot, points per possession on each possession over and over again, and then that can also change. Everything’s about risk management … the best thing our defense has done this year is we’ve had a clear understanding of what we’re willing to live with and what we’re willing to take away, and having the flexibility to adjust to that.”

Sometimes living with something might be the Dončić onslaught, which, combined with 20.6 fouls drawn per game by Dallas, will test Boston’s mental fortitude to handle runs, stay engaged in the game plan and sustain in lineups. Payton Pritchard faring decently in the last matchup while Sam Hauser’s struggles then (0-3 3PT) and now (7.1% 3PT ECF) might mostly knock him out of this matchup.

The Horford-Porziņģis lineup would help Boston immensely in playing a tighter rotation, with two days between games to recover from minutes and Dallas’ bench providing the Celtics the opportunity to go on their decisive run in March. The Mavs’ bench is mostly Lively with some Josh Green, Jaden Hardy and Maxi Kleber mixed in now. Dante Exum and Tim Hardaway Jr. played sizable roles previously.

As for the ever-important margins Mazzulla mentions, the Mavs enter with a 31.0-29.4 OREB% advantage in the playoffs, something to watch if the Celtics try to pre-switch with Tatum and Brown on the centers. Dallas takes more free throws (23.8-20.1), but is the worst free throw shooting team among the 16-team postseason field (72.8%). Washington (69.2%), Derrick Jones Jr. (72%), Gafford (62.3%) and Lively (61.1%) all struggle at the line. Boston is eighth at 79.7%, and made all 13 attempts in the March win while the Mavs missed five. The Celtics have maintained their elite 12% turnover rate into the playoffs, ranked fifth, while no team shoots better overall (60.0 TS%), but the Mavs reach that level with 54.7 eFG% (3rd) and 57.7 TS% (4th). That gives Dallas the tools to play close if they remain disciplined.

“There are gonna be close games,” Mazzulla said. “The first 3.5 quarters are just as important as the last two minutes of the game. If you look at the Minnesota-Dallas series, it was 4-1, but Minnesota was leading in two of those, maybe even three of those games in the fourth quarter. The things that (Minnesota) gave up are the things you can control over a long period of time. We’re not here to stop (Doncic and Irving), we’re here to stop those guys, we’re here to play a complete game of basketball and have an understanding of how each possession has an effect on everything else.

That’s where intangibles come into play. Jrue Holiday, White, Tatum, Brown and Horford have all been on this stage. So have Irving and Jason Kidd, as a player. Mazzulla hasn’t coached in the Finals. This is Dončić’s first time here. Holiday, in particular, can make magic happen with his defensive instincts as he did late in the Pacers series while Dallas’ likely attempt to hide Dončić or Irving on him defensively will make Holiday, the 2021 champion, a large part of this series. Holiday’s ability to make decisions on-the-fly, defensively, could swing the close games as they did at Indiana last week.

 

It’s unclear how large of a role Porziņģis will have, targeted by Dončić at times in March, with his return almost unprecedented at this stage in recent playoff history, while him playing against his old team will be overshadowed by Irving’s battle with Celtics fans. Getting to matchups like that will force Washington and non-traditional screeners to play pick-and-roll.

Dončić, who scored 20 first quarter points while a fan heckled him during Game 5 at Minnesota in the west finals, could draw from the hostile environment in Boston. Tatum is trying to avenge a massive 2022 Finals letdown, and hadn’t shot the ball great until round three. Horford will pour it all out for the ring he’s played 17 seasons toward.It all sets the stage for a fascinating Finals, one Boston should win, but one the combination of external pressure and Dallas’ challenging runs will force them to dig deep to accomplish.

“They’re going to score. It’s what they do best. If we don’t take care of what’s within our control, then that doesn’t put us in the best position to win. (Their scoring) can have an emotional impact on you if you let it. I think the Indiana series was a tremendous test for us, because it tested our emotional stability to withstand things that you were willing to give up. They shot 60% on non-layup twos, which is the shot that you’re willing to give up over a long period of time. We managed the fourth quarter better than we managed the end-of-half or end-of-quarters, we were able to keep them out of transition for Games 3-4. So it’s just a test of things that you can control. That’s the biggest thing.”