Celtics Thriving with Jaylen Brown in Place of Jayson Tatum This Season

Jaylen Brown returned atop the Celtics’ offense on Wednesday and ran up his net rating with Jayson Tatum sidelined with an ankle injury. While multiple ailments have forced Brown off the floor too, and could require more rest with only nine games remaining on Boston’s schedule, the Celtics have increased flexibility 5o manage both down the stretch and adjust rotations in the playoffs due to Brown’s improvements as a playmaker.

On Wednesday, Brown posted 24 points, three rebounds and five assists on 7-for-15 with only one turnover while limited to 28 minutes. The Celtics won his minutes by 24 points.

That lifted Boston to a +11.4 net rating with Brown on the floor and Tatum off, boasting an offensive rating (126.1) that actually surpasses Tatum’s (121.9), though in only 690 minutes compared to Tatum’s 1,066. There won’t be much time in the postseason where Tatum will sit, but Brown’s ability to extend or manage leads will give the Celtics more room for error and confidence to play Tatum for the full third quarter before all the important start to the fourth, his typical rest spot. And in the rarer cases where Tatum becomes limited, Brown looked far from the player who struggled to carry the Celtics through Game 7 of the 2023 east finals with Tatum injured.

That year, in 2023, Boston posted only a +3.2 net rating with Brown on and Tatum off, compared to Tatum’s +12.0 mark while playing alone. Into the playoffs, that gap widened, the Celtics winning Tatum’s minutes by 7.9 points per 100 and losing Brown’s by 7.7, a nearly 16-point swing. Brown finished with 68 assists and 66 turnovers, with his 14.2 TOV% settling nearly four percentage points above Tatum’s. Prior to that, the Celtics’ offense improved by 7.2 points per 100 with Tatum on the floor compared to off, one of the biggest swings in the NBA.

That changed last year, when Boston’s offense amazingly scored more with Tatum off the floor (-1.0 ON), a credit to Brown’s improvement, but also the accumulation of various playmakers in recent years from Derrick White to Kristaps Porziņģis, who made the most dramatic impact on Brown’s playmaking. The Celtics’ most popular non-Tatum lineup became Brown, White, Porziņģis, Al Horford and Sam Hauser, who won their minutes by 19.4 points per 100. This year, Horford mostly replaces Tatum in a +11.4 lineup that started on Wednesday. Payton Pritchard playing in place of Tatum is a +15.2, while Brown, White, Hauser, Pritchard and Luke Kornet own a +12.0 net rating. The Celtics are only +0.6 points better with Tatum on rather than off.

Pairing Brown with Porziņģis continues to power Brown’s playmaking success, the pair posting a +18.7 net rating with Tatum off the floor. When Brown plays with Porziņģis and Tatum missing, his lineups fall to +7.4, still impressive and emblematic of his ability to get off the ball and avoid difficult shots more often. The Suns showed him two defenders late throughout Wednesday’s Celtics win, and he consistently moved the ball out of those spots. It’s the defensive look that allows Boston’s defense to reach its most dynamic level. The Celtics assisted 33 times on 45 baskets.

Brown, taking a similar approach to Tatum, sized up the Suns’ defensive alignments by dribbling into his sweet spot around the free throw line after taking the threes Phoenix gave him early. The Suns decided to commit to Celtics drives and bring help, and Brown repeatedly took advantage of Kevin Durant creeping too far away from shooters.

Other times, Brown posted-up, which he’s done more than ever in his career (2.4 poss.), to draw a second defender. The Celtics score 1.08 points per possessions in those looks, which ranks in the 71st percentile. As ridiculous as Phoenix’ game plan looked when Boston poured in 10 first quarter threes, their approach made the Celtics almost exclusively shoot threes. They took 17 of their first 23 field goal attempts from deep, and Brown didn’t attempt a two-pointer or free throw until the second quarter. If they missed shots the way they did against the Thunder earlier this month, it would’ve looked different.

That’s why Joe Mazzulla didn’t sweat bad shooting results on offense or defense when the Celtics took the right approach offensively earlier in the schedule. They’ve focused on making the right play every time, which even allowed Boston to win its minutes with Brown and Tatum both off the floor by 2.9 points per 100 through Wednesday. As Will Hardy pointed out earlier this month, White also beats mismatches while Payton Pritchard can generate leverage getting downhill past a defense. With Tatum out and Brown held out of the fourth quarter on Monday in Sacramento, the Celtics carved out a 25-17 edge in the fourth to win by 18.

Brown’s most important job, whether Tatum’s in or not, remains his ability to push the pace.  He creates 4.9 transition possessions per game, with Pritchard’s 2.5 marking the second-most, ranking 12th in the NBA. Last year, he pushed the pace 6.0 times per night, an important element for a team that’s 27th in transition possessions, rarely running and suffering from whatever impact injuries have had on Brown’s ability to do so. While effective overall, Brown has looked slightly hobbled in the open court, not able to get full separation. That made his third quarter dunk all the more important before explaining post-game that his knee bruise probably will linger into the playoffs. It’s a matter of finding a way to power through the pain.

Tatum’s greatest strength comes from his ability to log massive minutes, limiting the time the Celtics need to play without him against tightened opponent rotations. That leaves fewer where Brown needs to lead Boston, but it’s fortunately not him scoring his way out of trouble anymore, attacking stacked defenses head-on. The Thunder, the NBA’s best defense, dared him to do so successfully weeks ago.

Phoenix, trying a similar strategy, saw Brown pass repeatedly, 30 times in six fewer minutes than he normally plays (32.8 on average) and more than his 4.7 APG. Against the Lakers weeks ago, he found the space to attack Luka Dončić repeatedly, and while Collin Gillespie gave him opportunities to score in Phoenix, the game called for him to give the ball up.

“It’s been fun to watch him grow over the last few years in his reads,” Joe Mazzulla said earlier this season. “You see him be able to process the game in real time and see the adjustments that are being made on him and recognizing the matchup … recognizing the spacing. I think he’s gotten better, a couple times, where I was like, get what you want, dictate the defense. He plays at a pace to where he can get to the spacing that he wants and he knows the shot that he wants.”