The Boston Celtics (54-25, 42-36-1 ATS) are back in action today against the Toronto Raptors (40-39, 40-37-2 ATS). This is the first of two matchups in three days against the Raptors at home for Boston, as they look to rebound from yesterday’s close loss to the 76ers. The Raptors, meanwhile, are coming off two big wins against the Charlotte Hornets. Boston leads the season series 2-0. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Celtics are 3-point favorites.
Al Horford (back management) is out, sitting the second game of the back-to-back. Jayson Tatum (hip), Marcus Smart (neck), and Payton Pritchard (heel) are all questionable. It wouldn’t be a surprise if both Tatum and Smart miss tonight for load management reasons. Robert Williams III and Jaylen Brown are off the injury report and will return to the lineup.
For Toronto, Gary Trent Jr. (elbow) is out, while OG Anunoby (ankle) and Will Barton (ankle) are questionable. Both Anunoby and Barton played yesterday against Charlotte.
PG: Derrick White
SG: Sam Hauser
SF: Jaylen Brown
PF: Grant Williams
C: Robert Williams III
PG: Fred VanVleet
SG: OG Anunoby
SF: Scottie Barnes
PF: Pascal Siakam
C: Jakob Poeltl
The Celtics still need another victory or a Philadelphia loss to officially clinch the two seed, but we’re practically at the point where Boston, on paper, has nothing to play for. These upcoming games against Toronto won’t be totally meaningless though. Depending on how the play-in tournament shakes out, this could be a preview of the Celtics’ first-round matchup. There will be a few things Boston will need to key in on not just to win tonight, but win a possible playoff series. First will be how to slow down the Raptors offense. It’s not overpowered, but it’s one that thrives in transition. Toronto has the fifth most transition possessions per game and scores the fifth most transition points per game at 23.8. Robert Williams III on the offensive glass will have a huge impact on how much the Raptors can get out and run and how much they need to operate out of half-court sets, something Toronto struggles with a little more.
They’ll also need to figure out how to guard Pascal Siakam. Though the Raptors haven’t beaten the Celtics this year, Siakam has done his part, averaging an efficient 29.0 points, 8.5 assists, and 8.5 rebounds in two games. The key for Boston will be keeping him out of the paint, where he’s so effective as a scorer. There’s only so much a team can do to limit a player of his caliber, but giving him shots from beyond the arc and packing the paint will serve the Celtics well in slowing down Toronto’s best player.
The Raptors are locked into the play-in, but they have a lot to play for. Currently the nine seed in the East, moving up to eight or seven means they’d only need to win one game to make the playoffs instead of two. After a year where many people, from Nick Nurse to Pascal Siakam, have commented on the energy being low, they need to start playing their best ball of the season. The thing that probably needs to improve the most is the bench play. Toronto’s second unit is last in the NBA in ppg, and though that can partially be chalked up to Nurse’s starter-heavy scheme, it’s also 19th in net rating. That depth will be put to the test tonight, but if Boston is resting key players for the next few days, then this will be a good stretch to try and establish consistent play heading into the postseason.
The starting unit, by comparison, has been much, much better. The big names are Siakam and Fred VanVleet, but Jakob Poeltl, returning to Toronto after being shipped to San Antonio as a part of the Kawhi Leonard package, has quietly helped the team a lot. Acquired in early February, Poeltl in 22 games with Toronto is averaging 14.2 ppg and 9.5 rpg. His adept ability in the pick and roll game has also given the Toronto offense another dimension, replacing the more limited Chris Boucher in the starting lineup. Poeltl is a guy the Celtics haven’t seen in Toronto’s rotation yet, and he can help provide a lift in either of the games coming up.
Before Boston can think about the postseason, they have to finish out the regular season. With one more piece of unfinished business to take care of, I don’t think the Celtics will come out flat, even if they’re resting 1-3 starters and not playing a premier opponent. The final score will come down to the availability of Tatum and Smart, but the C’s are the better team and should play like it. I think Boston secures the two seed and takes down the Raptors.
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