Khris Middleton would headline any list of NBA talents who strike distinct fear in the hearts of Celtics fans. The Bucks star — who averaged 24.3 points, 10.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game on 54.9% shooting against Boston last season — will reportedly miss the entirety of their second-round series beginning Sunday at 1 EST with an MCL sprain.
Middleton keyed a seven-game battle between the Celtics and Bucks in 2018, shooting 59.8% from the field, 61% from deep and drilling a shot from half court at the buzzer in Game 1 to force overtime. The Celtics escaped the series, before he shot 43.8% from three through four wins in a back door sweep in 2019. Boston contained him better this season, holding him to 41% FG in three games.
Defense might be where the Bucks miss Middleton most, unable to utilize his 6’7″ height and 6’11” wingspan against Jayson Tatum on the perimeter. The defending champions took a step back defensively this season, allowing 111.1 points per 100 possessions (14th) after finishing in the top-10 the year before and slipping as far as 21st in February. Somewhat akin to the Nets series, we have to ask how much that slippage was legitimate. A locked-in Bucks squad could be a two-way menace. Middleton’s injury positions them as slight underdogs against a defensive team that matches up well with them. Still, expect a possibly all-time battle between these groups.
“This was a physical series too,” Al Horford said. “They were hard-fought (games), I know we were doing a lot of the physical play, but (the Nets) also were too. This did not feel like a first-round series at that level. It’s the playoffs. It is going to be another challenge, and those teams are bigger teams. There’s no question about it, but that’s how we play. That’s what we do, that’s how we play. Defensively, thats’ who we are, so looking forward to it.”
The absence of Brook Lopez for almost the entire regular season had something to do with the Bucks’ defensive regression, and he returned to his 30 minutes per game in a 4-1 first round win over the Bulls where Milwaukee suffocated Chicago to 94.4 points per 100 possessions. Bobby Portis joined the starting lineup in Middleton’s place to form a ginormous front court of seven-footers.
Coinciding wing depth issues will remain against the Celtics though, with 6’10” Portis, 6’5″ Wes Matthews, 6’5″ Pat Connaughton and 6’4″ Grayson Allen filling Middleton’s minutes and playing the point of attack against Tatum, who averaged 29.5 PPG and 7.3 APG in the first round. Milwaukee dealt Donte DiVincenzo at the trade deadline for Serge Ibaka, who probably won’t factor into this series.
The Bucks can try to neutralize Tatum with Lopez dropping back and defending the basket, while Giannis Antetokounmpo will inevitably creep into the lane with help defense to force Tatum to pass. If Tatum buries threes around screens, how quickly will Milwaukee adjust and put Antetokounmpo on-ball guarding Tatum? Antetokounmpo only matched up with him for eight possessions in two games during the regular season, and 15 on Brown, spending more time on Grant and Robert Williams.
Tatum thrived attacking double teams in round one against the Nets, but could easily target mismatches against Brooklyn’s switch-heavy defense while pulling big men like Nic Claxton out of the paint. The Bucks will try to remove those touches inside, daring Al Horford, Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Grant Williams to shoot threes. Boston hit 35.5% of its attempts from deep in round one, they’ll need to shoot to keep up.
Jaylen Brown will again become the Celtics’ offensive x-factor playing away from the pressure Tatum receives. He averaged 22.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 4.3 APG on 49.3% shooting, including 22 points in Game 2, flipping the result with a fourth quarter explosion, compiling 10 steals and a key assist to Horford for three in crunch time of Game 4 after Tatum fouled out. Brown suffered from hamstring tightness that night that lingered into this week. The Celtics expect him to be available for Game 1, but the injury required a longer look and attention from Boston’s strength staff.
Jrue Holiday, 6’3″, will probably begin games on Smart, but could factor into attacking Brown on the ball and forcing turnovers if he’s forced to be a secondary facilitator away from Tatum. He guarded Tatum for 95 possessions in the regular season, holding him to 6-for-15 shooting and three turnovers. Brown shot 3-for-9 in against Holiday. Both big wings were able to shoot threes over the Bucks guard (6-for-13).
Holiday will be Milwaukee’s x-factor, at the point of attack in disrupting a Celtics offense that could now have an advantage, and frustrating Boston’s scorers enough to hope that it creeps into their defensive poise. Milwaukee benefits from a series that speeds up, or any frustration they can inflict on Boston’s stars. Brooklyn had no chance at challenging Brown and Tatum defensively. Any Brown absence or limitations would immediately bridge the gap between the two teams.
Antetokounmpo alone makes this a series, arguably the MVP and best player in the league averaging 29.9 PPG, 11.6 RPG, 5.8 APG, 1.1 SPG and 1.4 BPG on 55.3% shooting during the regular season, before posting 28.6 PPG and 6.2 APG on 56.8% shooting in round one. He’s adept passing to the perimeter on a team that buried 36.6% of its 38 threes (5th in attempts) each night. If teammates miss, he’ll grab offensive rebounds, an area the Celtics struggled to prevent the Nets from hurting them in.
Allen buried 58.3% of his threes against Chicago, Portis 36%, Matthews 47.6% and Connaughton caught fire late with a 6-for-9 night from deep in Game 5 to cap a 35.5% series. He struggled to close the season returning from a wrist injury, but Holiday hit 41.1% of his triples and Lopez can still convert at a 35.8% rate.
Brooklyn managed to drill 42.2% from three in round one as the Celtics pinched the lane on Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. They’ll need to do the same against Milwaukee, inevitably allowing Brown, Tatum, Williams and Horford to guard Antetokounmpo at the point of attack, before Robert Williams III, Daniel Theis and Horford rotate into help position away from Lopez. The Bucks’ big man shot 33.3% from deep in round one. If there’s anyone on a loaded roster of shooters to leave alone, it’ll be the man nicknamed Splash Mountain. Pick your poison. The Bucks scored 114.3 points per 100 possessions in the regular season (3rd).
“We all know what Giannis is capable of, what he’s done, what he’s doing and what he’s going to try to do. For us, it’s going to take another team effort. With those guys, he makes it really tough because of how aggressive he is and how he can get in the lane, and not only create for himself, but create for those other guys,” Smart said on Thursday. “It’s similar to Brooklyn, but in a sense it’s different. There were a lot more guys on Brooklyn we could help off of. This one, you’ve got to be more cognizant of those shooters … when we do switch, that wall still has to be there, regardless of who’s on (Giannis). No matter who switches on him. He’s a force, we know it, he’s been showing it, dude’s seven-plus feet, wingspan seven-plus and he’s athletic with it, and he’s strong.”
Ime Udoka tried to deter Antetokounmpo and company as an assistant coach on the Nets last spring in one of the greatest playoff series in NBA history by pinching the lane similar to how the Celtics do now. Utilizing Horford, who’s had plenty of success in his career fronting Antetokounmpo, rather than Blake Griffin gives Udoka more versatility immediately, alongside Grant Williams, who held Antetokounmpo to 4-for-10 shooting over 62 possessions during the regular season.
“They are who they are. What they do is very similar. I think they’ve improved their overall role players around him. It feels like they have more of a scoring team, or better shooters, Portis has really improved this year, Lopez coming back, Allen, as well as Connaughton and Holiday shooting it better this year. Giannis has been a more willing passer, I would say, throughout this season. Trusting his guys and they’re knocking down their shots. What they do is get out in transition, No. 1 in the league as far as that and they’re 21st in the half court. So we want to slow them down and make them beat a really good defensive team in the half court first of all. Then all the little nuances of Holiday and them getting on the offensive glass. I saw it last year, and so there’s a lot of similarities as far as that goes, but we do have different personnel. You have to stop what they do well regardless.”
Williams III’s ability to return to form on the back line could swing the series, averaging 15 minutes in Games 3 and 4 against Brooklyn coming back from a torn meniscus. The Celtics aimed to ramp Williams III up in scrimmages late this week, but Williams III acknowledged only playing can return his wind. His presence alone helps in a series where foul trouble could come into play for Boston’s bigs. The Bucks lack interior depth.
As much as Williams III could challenge Antetokounmpo attempts inside from help positioning, Giannis is as able as anyone at matching Williams III’s offensive play above the rim. Floor spacing from Payton Pritchard, Grant Williams and Horford remains critical for the Celtics’ offense. Much of Marcus Smart and Tatum’s offensive success facilitating came from getting downhill against the Nets. That won’t be possible here without quality spacing and movement.
Mike Budenholzer and Udoka, fellow assistants on Gregg Popovich‘s Spurs staff through 2013, face off on the sidelines. Celtics assistant Ben Sullivan served under Budenholzer on the Hawks from 2014-2018, then in on the Bucks from 2018-2021. Sullivan only received his championship ring earlier this month in Boston’s visit to Milwaukee.
“(Bud’s) a guy who coached me for three years, and then I worked with his last year in San Antonio and my first year coaching. So obviously we know each other really well, besides the playoff series. I kind of know some things about Bud, and likewise him with me as well … Ben Sullivan, who came over from their staff, obviously similar to me with Brooklyn last year. He knows the nuances of what they’re trying to get done, some of the verbiage, language … Ben’s been a valuable source already, but my relationship with Bud goes way back. I kind of know what he’s about. He’s been adaptable with his team, they made subtle changes last year, as well as this year, that really helped them win the championship. He’s continuing to grow and become a better coach year-by-year.”
The Bucks won the April meeting with Tatum, Horford and Williams III sitting, 127-120, but Boston’s ability to match up and play multiple styles shined. Brown scored 22 points with 11 assists, the team dished 30 on 43 buckets, Grant Williams defended Antetokounmpo and held him to 10 shots and 12 points in the first half and Smart attacked the rim and hit 7-of-12 from three on his way to 29 points. Allen missed the game for the Bucks.
The teams last met before that on Christmas, Antetokounmpo scoring 36 points and leading a 13-point comeback in the final five minutes as Horford and Grant Williams sat amid a flurry of COVID. Tatum scored 42 points and Boston’s regular starting lineup stifled the Bucks to 103 points in mid-December. Their November meeting, a Dennis Schröder-led Celtics overtime victory with Antetokounmpo and Brown absent holds the least relevance to where the two teams stand now. Throughout though — the Celtics proved as formidable as anyone challenging Milwaukee.
Milwaukee punted home court in this series to avoid the Nets in round one, sitting all their regular contributors in their final regular season game when a win would’ve clinched the No. 2 seed. Udoka and Celtics players continued to puff their chests over their embrace of the Brooklyn matchup, and rightfully so following a sweep.
Home court may not have as profound of an impact as it had, given hostilities back-and-forth with Kyrie Irving, in the previous series, but avoiding a difficult environment in Milwaukee, while also not needing to travel to for Game 3 until Friday into Saturday next week gives the Celtics ample time in their own facility. They also earned extra days of practice while Milwaukee’s series went five games. The week-long layoff during the play-in tournament had the Celtics prepared for round one, meeting Durant in all of his spots immediately in Game 1.
Will Antetokounmpo look as flummoxed, bumping around like a pinball and turning the ball over in the lane? Unlikely. His will and motor make these games unlikely to end until 0:00. As much as the Celtics have struggled in crunch time this season, they secured close games to open and close the Nets series with perfect execution.
The Bucks, by contrast, leaned on Middleton to get his shot off in the closing minutes of games. Holiday will likely take on that role, with Smart coming off a series where he held Irving to 5-for-17 shooting when guarding him. Antetokounmpo quietly became a better free throw shooter this year, converting over 72%, but his jump shot remains an area the Celtics can dare him to beat them from.
“Just having (Udoka and Sullivan), who are kind of familiar with both organizations, both teams, and just giving a little insight, things like that,” Tatum told CLNS on the familiarity between the two teams. “It’s not like answers to a test, we’ve still got to go out there, compete, execute and make things happen.”
